Pawared P. @p_pawared
Joined November 2021-
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Shutdowns happen. They can take a tad off GDP, but it comes back quickly. Historically, stocks take shutdowns in stride.
Savita BofA: Raising S&P 500 12m target to 7200 -Our outlook harkens back to the 80s/90s -Boom-time earnings, mid > mega, tariff deals vs. curveballs, de-reg -Why broadening now? Next stop for AI, pent-up capex, guidance pop
🚨Foreign investors are ALL-IN on US stocks: Overseas investors’ allocation to US equities hit a RECORD 61%. This share is now 7 percentage points above the 2000 Dot-Com bubble peak. By comparison, at the Great Financial Crisis low, it was 25%. Incredible.
Gold is actually cheap relative to the global currency fiat money supply. ▪️If gold matches its 2011 money-supply ratio, you’re looking at about $4,400 per ounce. ▪️If gold matches the 1980s ratio, it’s about $9,700 per ounce.
Gold is actually cheap relative to the global currency fiat money supply. ▪️If gold matches its 2011 money-supply ratio, you’re looking at about $4,400 per ounce. ▪️If gold matches the 1980s ratio, it’s about $9,700 per ounce. https://t.co/wU1HNbDIAS
#seasonality $spx $spy -- Take the next year off and come back 9/29/2026?
A few weeks ago it was 1997 all over twitter. Now it’s 1999. Next week maybe it’s 2000, and after 9/30 it’s 2001 🤷♂️
Lot of talk how valuations are 'high'. Here's another reminder there is virtually no correlation between P/E multiples and what the S&P 500 does the next year (R-squared of -0.01).
@RyanDetrick Now look at it over 5 and 10 years
Foreign investors now have a record allocation to U.S. equities @NDR_Research
I expect silver to head to $48 - 49 level, where it most likely pauses for a week or so. At which point most of the investors will be convinced that the rally is over and that silver is about to form a double top standing from 2011. However, I believe, the most interesting starts…
Gold to silver ratio (GTS) has been holding up at present level for the past 2.5 months. Breakdown of the ratio could result in a 2 to 3 week plunge to 59 level if we connect 2016 and 2021 bottoms in GTS and peaks in the precious metals. With my $4k gold target, a 59 GTS means…
$NDX $QQQ Nasdaq 100 Today vs. DotCom Bubble RSI Then (2000 Peak): ~85 Today: ~70 Distance from 200-Day SMA Then: +55% at peak Today: ~14% IF this is a Bubble...It's Early......
🔥 September 2025 FOMC Meeting: Key Takeaways 🔎 📌 The Fed cut rates by 25bp to 4.00%–4.25% with an 11:1 vote, officially restarting the rate cut cycle! Only Trump nominee Stephen I. Miran dissented, favoring a 50bp cut. 📌 The statement noted that “recruitment has slowed” and…
September FOMC *The Fed cuts rates by 25 bps *A narrow majority of officials pencil in a total of at least 3 cuts this year *Statement changes are dovish *Miran is the only dissent, for 50 bps
"Foreign investors are now removing dollar exposure at an unprecedented pace" -DB Saravelo via @LJKawa
$SPY – S&P 500 Sector Breadth Analysis 1.) Strong Longer-Term Uptrends in Offensive Areas Growth/cyclical sectors are firmly above their longer-term moving averages. 2.) Shorter-Term Trends Show Room to Run Near-term breadth is not overextended, suggesting there’s still fuel…
How have tariffs impacted the economy so far? 1) Government size (spending as a % of GDP) has remained mostly the same over the last two quarters. Ideally, government size would shrink, but flat is better than growing. 2) The deficit has declined by 1% of GDP over the last…

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