Ruhell Amin @ruhellx

After-Hours Earnings Winners and Losers:

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GOOGL in charts: Cloud was only big beat. Cloud came at $30.7bn vs $29.1bn expected (+103% y/y), but Search, YouTube, Subs and Services all missed Two speeds. Cloud doubled; Search grew 12% (vs ~14% buyside bogey), YouTube 9% (below 10% toleration line), and Network just 1%

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zerohedge @zerohedge

13 hours ago

Google Plunges After Ugly Top And Bottom Line Miss, As AI Cannibalizes Search And Ads zerohedge.com/markets/google…

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Semiconductor Stocks with a textbook bounce off the 200-day moving average 📈🥳🫂

Alphabet $GOOGL now trading below its 200-day moving average by the largest margin in 17 months 🚨🚨

AI infrastructure is increasingly being built on credit. Long-term debt and off-balance-sheet vehicles are financing the build-out but may also concentrate risks among a small number of firms and investors. Read more: bit.ly/4sqAqWA #BISBulletin

We're about to enter a period where not reading or writing becomes as ubiquitous as smoking once was. We can hope people will eventually realize this is bad for them, as they did with smoking. But this is far from certain; the cost may not be as obvious.

Pretty much. As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers. SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue. That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.

BIG week ahead! $10 trillion in tech earnings. Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon. All expected to post strong revenue growth - but that's not what matters. The market wants to know one thing: how much are you burning on AI, and when does it show up in free cash flow? Meta raised AI spending to $825B last week. The stock still dropped 6% and CDS spreads hit fresh highs. Investors have zero tolerance for higher capex. And the FOMC is the SAME DAY. This is where the AI trade gets decided.

Biggest week of the year for the AI trade starts Monday. Tue: $V Wed: Fed decision, then $MSFT and $GOOGL after the close Thu: $LLY and $MA, then $AMZN and $INTC after the close Fri: $XOM and $CVX Microsoft guided Azure growth of about 45%. Google Cloud grew 82% last quarter. Bookmark this. Which one beats hardest?

US equity market breadth is rapidly improving: The proportion of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average surged +5 percentage points on Friday, to 61%, the highest reading since mid-August. Since the October 1st intraday low, this figure has more than tripled. Additionally, the proportion of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average rose +3 percentage points on Friday, to 57%, the most since September 9th. Over the last 3 weeks, this figure has risen +17 percentage points. This comes despite the S&P 500 remaining roughly unchanged over the same period. This also ranks among the 3 sharpest improvements in market breadth over the last 3 years. On Thursday alone, 335 S&P 500 stocks finished higher, despite the index declining -1.2% on that day. The market is strengthening beneath the surface.

AI-linked CDS trading has 4x since July, as $META and $NVDA spreads hit record highs

Interpret this how you will, but more than a third of AI spend by the top 1% of firms is already going to compute

The AI boom is narrower than almost anyone admits. The top 10% of firms account for 99.5% of all model-serving spend, 99% of neocloud, and 95%+ of OpenAI and Anthropic billings. And 80.4% of the heaviest AI spenders run on venture capital, not their own revenue. This is a concentrated, circular buildout. A handful of companies are the entire trade.

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Depreciation and amortization expenses for the five hyperscalers are set to reach $590 billion in 2029. This is likely to exceed their combined operating profits in 2026.

👀Yipit coverage of Anthropic below

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YipitData @yipitdata

6 days ago

Ahead of the upcoming Anthropic IPO, we pulled together some of the key trends we’re watching and the questions investors should be asking. YipitData’s proprietary datasets provide an independent view into the business, tracking enterprise spend and adoption, model usage, token

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Ahead of the upcoming Anthropic IPO, we pulled together some of the key trends we’re watching and the questions investors should be asking. YipitData’s proprietary datasets provide an independent view into the business, tracking enterprise spend and adoption, model usage, token pricing, market share, retention, and cloud trends. Explore the data and charts behind our Anthropic research here: yipitdata.com/resources/yipi…

Seeing a lot of fear around $META 5-year credit default swaps hitting an all-time high but I think people are reading way too much into this. Meta is still AA-rated with ~$82B in cash and a massive ads business generating ~$250B annually giving it a much stronger credit profile so the recent spike could have more to do with banks hedging exposure to Meta's massive AI debt financing than actual default risk. Really important not to confuse rising CDS spreads as some type of signal for a weakening business because thats not whats happening here.

Bond markets are turning up the pressure on Paris as France’s risk premium keeps climbing. The 10y yield spread over Germany has widened further to 175bps, the highest since 2011. Just 15bps shy of its eurozone debt-crisis peak.

JEFFERIES DESK: “.. in the last 10 days, we’ve been net for sale in Tech to the tune of > $1B on 7 of those days. .. And for reference, here’s our net trading flows over a 20D period, one of the more dramatic net selling periods we’ve seen in Tech in recent years.”

AI credit risk hits new highs. Oracle’s 5Y CDS tops 300bps, SpaceX exceeds 200bps, Meta hits a record 119bps as future spending commitments reach $825bn. The AI arms race is becoming a financing race. Insuring the dream against default keeps getting more expensive. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…