sam manning @sj_manning
Penelope, Otis, and Annie's dad. Senior Research Fellow @GovAI_, Non-Resident Fellow @JoinFAI. Economic and labor impacts of advanced AI. sam-manning.com Newbury, MA Joined February 2010-
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FAI is hiring! Come join the AI policy team to work with @hamandcheese, @deanwball, and me at @JoinFAI.
This is a terrific article by @deenamousa about why AI hasn't taken all of the radiology jobs.
This is a terrific article by @deenamousa about why AI hasn't taken all of the radiology jobs. https://t.co/YO4He6EzId
At a higher level, I worry tradeoffs in the run-up to AGI could be btw allocating compute to AI R&D vs military+defense vs public goods (health research) vs consumer use. Think incentives mostly tilt toward the first two if compute scarce and more inference=more capabilities.
At a higher level, I worry tradeoffs in the run-up to AGI could be btw allocating compute to AI R&D vs military+defense vs public goods (health research) vs consumer use. Think incentives mostly tilt toward the first two if compute scarce and more inference=more capabilities. https://t.co/aEi9Zu2waq
Nice thread of talk summaries from papers presented by economists & economic sociologists at a conference taking the prospect of transformative AI seriously. Lots of smart people doing interesting work to try and understand what this new era means for firms, science & all of us.
Nice thread of talk summaries from papers presented by economists & economic sociologists at a conference taking the prospect of transformative AI seriously. Lots of smart people doing interesting work to try and understand what this new era means for firms, science & all of us.
Happy and honored to have presented my paper with @sj_manning at the NBER Economics of Transformative AI Workshop @Stanford!
Day 2 of "The Economics of Transformative AI" @nberpubs A lot of thought-provoking papers trying to imagine how would (economically) a world where AI is able to do most/all jobs work: tax, life satisfaction, competition... I will keep twitting the papers through the day.
Day 2 of "The Economics of Transformative AI" @nberpubs A lot of thought-provoking papers trying to imagine how would (economically) a world where AI is able to do most/all jobs work: tax, life satisfaction, competition... I will keep twitting the papers through the day.
Scarce compute means higher compute prices. The more it costs to automate things, drive scientific progress, etc. the less "material abundance" we can create. If you want AI's benefits to be widely accessible, compute and energy abundance should be a priority!
Scarce compute means higher compute prices. The more it costs to automate things, drive scientific progress, etc. the less "material abundance" we can create. If you want AI's benefits to be widely accessible, compute and energy abundance should be a priority!
this is incredible stuff. so cool to see @AnthropicAI release more valuable data on AI usage across the economy
this is incredible stuff. so cool to see @AnthropicAI release more valuable data on AI usage across the economy
BLS projects -6% employment for Computer Programmers by 2034. Software Developers expected to be +15%. Key distinction in the way they define roles: CPs "Work from specifications drawn up by software and web developers or other individuals." Sounds like a coding agent to me!
Today, over forty leading economists and experts are calling on the Department of Labor to gather more data on AI's jobs impact. Signers include former fed chairs, Nobel laureates, and experts on the right and left. Read the full letter: ari.us/wp-content/upl…
Excited to add a 3rd Sam to FAI's staff page
Cool time to share I've joined @JoinFAI as a non-resident fellow. And to say that I've never been to a rave nor am I libertarian. I do care about understanding AI's labor impacts and defining a progress-oriented policy vision for AIxlabor, which I'll be working on w/ the team.
Cool time to share I've joined @JoinFAI as a non-resident fellow. And to say that I've never been to a rave nor am I libertarian. I do care about understanding AI's labor impacts and defining a progress-oriented policy vision for AIxlabor, which I'll be working on w/ the team.
Despite poor jobs numbers and recent research showing that AI may be negatively impacting employment of young workers in some sectors, I think the effect of AI on job creation has been overwhelmingly positive to date. When thinking about the state of the US economy, worth…
People are going to start blaming stuff like this on ai if it continues, regardless of whether it’s true (Just like people are blaming ai for rising electricity prices, which any savvy observer of the us grid knows have been baked in for years before ai data center demand)
We've updated a paper on the 3-year, $1000/month U.S. guaranteed income study. New results, in 3 figures: 🧵 1) Subjective well-being significantly improved in the treatment group in year 1, but there were no sig differences between the treatment & control group after that. 1/
Mantic is out of stealth today! I'm incredibly excited for the technical progress we are making on AI forecasting.
Mantic is out of stealth today! I'm incredibly excited for the technical progress we are making on AI forecasting.
This seems like the most serious & most credible attempt to answer a question on many minds - what does AI do to entry-level labor market?
This seems like the most serious & most credible attempt to answer a question on many minds - what does AI do to entry-level labor market?
Rent these chips, it's the best of both worlds.
Rent these chips, it's the best of both worlds. https://t.co/9PMz4LJFcY
Here's some advice I often find myself giving people keen to do AI governance research: - Take trends seriously - Make up your own mind - Get a handle on the technical stuff - Ground yourself in concrete policy choices - Back yourself markusanderljung.com/blog/some-advi…
Khoa Vu @KhoaVuUmn
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Attention to this Mat... @samweston
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z @gardea_td
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bhargav#~ @bhargav_17889
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msbaltz @msbaltz
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5K Followers 885 Following Partner @SteptoeLLP. Emerging technology and national security law. AI | Chips | FinTech | Crypto. Not legal advice. Opinions are my own.
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Ethan Mollick @emollick
290K Followers 578 Following Professor @Wharton studying AI, innovation & startups. Democratizing education using tech Book: https://t.co/CSmipbJ2jV Substack: https://t.co/UIBhxu4bgq
Peter Hull @instrumenthull
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361K Followers 2K Following Writes about economics, posts about rabbits. For serious opinions/analysis, read my blog: https://t.co/KfUxUlCYPz
Ben Golub @ben_golub
61K Followers 3K Following econ prof @NorthwesternU studying networks try my AI scientific referee to improve your research -- https://t.co/RSvoCbDuGc past: @Harvard | @Stanford'12 | @Caltech '07
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Michael Nielsen @michael_nielsen
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Miles Brundage @Miles_Brundage
62K Followers 12K Following AI policy researcher, wife guy in training, fan of cute animals and sci-fi, Substack writer, stealth-ish non-profit co-founder
Ryan Briggs @ryancbriggs
12K Followers 1K Following Raising kids & bread & grant money. Cleaning data & diapers & fish. EA (bed nets not light cone). Social scientist. https://t.co/g8teKfCf91
Eliezer Yudkowsky ⏹... @ESYudkowsky
209K Followers 102 Following The original AI alignment person. Understanding the reasons it's difficult since 2003. This is my serious low-volume account. Follow @allTheYud for the rest.
Sarah Miller @smilleralert
8K Followers 864 Following I am off twitter these days. Reach out over email if you need me.
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194K Followers 7K Following “In the aftermath of GPT-5’s launch … the views of critics like Marcus seem increasingly moderate.” —@newyorker
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271 Followers 652 Following Thinks AI risk is somewhat likely, and AI benefits huge if we can align AIs to someone that is willing to promote human thriving even when humans are useless.
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4K Followers 590 Following Researcher @WorldBank DECRG. Redistribution coordinator @WIL_inequality. PhD @PSEinfo. World Political Cleavages and Inequality Database: https://t.co/ddGGsPoofo.
Heritage Foundation @Heritage
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483 Followers 684 Following they/them. Head of Policy and Ethics @AiEleuther. Find me in the EleutherAI Discord to chat. Former philosophlete.
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33K Followers 4K Following Asst Professor, Georgetown • Director, CFR China Strategy Initiative • Biden NSC '21-24 • Wrote The Long Game: China's Grand Strategy to Displace American Order
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482 Followers 626 Following @JoinFAI | Things I think about: science, politics, AI, ethics, the South, and Jesus | frmr: @c3solutionsNews @OU_TheoReligion @aei @covenantcollege | my own
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Nancy Scola @nancyscola
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237 Followers 161 Following Assistant Professor of Economics - IESE Business School
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175 Followers 139 Following Semi-professionally trying to figure out what a good future would look like
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140 Followers 145 Following AI+Energy // Building compute in America // Fellow @JoinFAI.
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