The S&P 500 has gained 20% each of the past two years, yet it was lower in October both times.
You have to go back to the late 1970s the last time it was down three years (actually four) in a row.
The Dow closed above 46k for the first time ever today.
It hit 45k more than nine months ago.
The past few times it went at least six months without a new 1k milestone and then made one, it made multiple new 1k milestones quickly.
The S&P 500 just completed one of the best five month rallies ever, up more than 30%.
Since 1950, this only happened five other times, but the returns going out a year were much better than average.
A year later? Never lower and up more than 18% on average.
The third year of bull markets tends to be choppy and frustrating. Well, we had a near bear market this time, so ☑
The good news? Things come back in year 4 and year 4 starts in one month.
This bull market turns 3 yrs old soon.
As we've noted many times, this is still a rather young bull market and history would say there is likely many more years left.
The past 50 yrs had 5 bulls get past their second birthday and the avg was 8 yrs. The shortest was 5 yrs.
⚠️SUMMARY OF US AUGUST PPI REPORT:
1. Much to the satisfaction of Fed Chair Powell, PPI comes in much cooler than expected.
2. US PPI declined -0.1% on the month, compared to estimates for an increase of 0.3%.
3. Headline PPI inflation rose 2.6% Y/Y, below forecasts for a 3.3%…
I'm an Intermediate Trader but still look at things on a short term basis to make timely decisions. Just check out the last minute buying (Institutional-The Big Boyz) the last 3 days. Will this Sept. be different? Those damned rose-colored glasses! $SPY $QQQ $IWM
On an unrounded basis, the unemployment rate rose to 4.324% in August from 4.248% in July.
Fed officials projected the unemployment rate in Q4 would rise to 4.5%.
The $NDX McClellan volume oscillator closed at -96 yesterday. NDX dropped 1.99% on Friday and Tuesday. The oscillator becoming extremely oversold after every minor drop is the perfect recipe for not having any significant correction despite being in September.
$SPX Lots of worry about we're due for a correction, Breadth is not there, September is coming up.But, This chart says not to panic. Until the $NYHL starts to detriorate, err on the long side. The 24d EMA at least has to roll over to raise the warning flags. It's pointing UP.
A lot of peeps will be watching the 21d MA here. We are ~2% above it. No idea if we go sideways here or drop 5-10% for a routine Intermediate correction or worse. I doubt this will be a longstanding top. In any case a lot of 👀will be on this chart.
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