So many people are worried the bull market is over in stocks, gold, and bitcoin.
But what if the bull market is just starting??
That’s what the data suggests…
Rate cuts aren’t created equal.
Goldman’s data shows that when the Fed cuts outside of a recession, stocks usually surge, non-recessionary cuts have historically lifted the S&P 500 by 50%+ over two years.
But if cuts arrive during a recession, the story flips. Equities…
🚨Global debt is MASSIVE:
World debt covering government, households, and non-financial corporates hit $251 TRILLION in 2024, according to the most recent IMF analysis.
Global debt-to-GDP is 235%, below the 2020 peak of 258%.
This does not include financial corporates.
This is insane:
As the record run in gold accelerates, US gold reserves just exceeded $1 TRILLION for the first time in history.
The US now holds ~2.4 TIMES more gold than Germany, the 2nd-largest holder in the world.
What is gold telling us? Let us explain.
(a thread)
Last week, I had the chance to catch up with one of my favorite thinkers and writers, @jsmian. If you aren't familiar with his work, I highly recommend it.
Here's the link to our conversation:
share.transistor.fm/s/e5775de3
$NBIS EARNS $NVDA EXEMPLAR STATUS ON H200 GPU CLUSTERS
Now in a small group of Nvidia-certified clouds hitting 97% of benchmark, Nebius delivers steadier performance without the networking bottlenecks or cost swings that slow hyperscalers at frontier scale.
The global pivot:
World central banks have cut rates 168 times over the last 12 months, the 3rd highest reading this century.
The previous cycle peak was 196 cumulative 12-month rate reductions in June 2020.
By comparison, following the 2008 Financial Crisis, global central…
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Difficult to argue that the bull started in 2016. 2022 is more realistic.
More importantly, the key underlying aspects of the 2022 gold bull have changed significantly vs the 2001 setup - which was a real rate compression play.
Sidi Kerir oil inventories remain below half capacity, and EU inventories have declined since May despite increased OPEC+ V8 production and exports, indicating a tighter oil market than oil bears believe.
⚠️US ECONOMY HAS:
1) JOBS REVISED DOWN BY ~900K in 12 mths ending Mar 2025.
2) Record $18 TRILLION in US household debt.
3) 446 BIG bankruptcies in 2025, the most in 15 YEARS
4) $1.6tn Deficit in 11 mths of FY2026
5) $37tn DEBT - record👇
globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/august-s-us-…
Basic necessities have never been more unaffordable:
US grocery prices have surged +29% since February 2020 to an all-time high.
During the same period, overall food prices have risen +30%.
Furthermore, food away from home has surged +33%.
Transportation services have…
Henry Fernandez, $MSCI CEO, told Bloomberg that the AI and tech investment surge is comparable to the railroad and dot-com bubbles.
Excessive investment may lead to overcapacity, with AI as the 'flavor of the day.'
Everyone’s talking and investing in the sector, but long-term,…
Barron's this week, how to trade the bubble:
barrons.com/articles/wall-…
"Worries grow that stocks are in a bubble. There’s a way to trade one - that means staying invested in equities for the moment, while also betting against bonds."
Wait until the last fool is found and then…
JENSEN SAYS $NVDA AI TAM COULD REACH $5T ANNUALLY
The world is about to build the entire next wave of the digital economy on NVIDIA’s rails with their GPUs becoming the core engine behind every major secular growth theme for decades.
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