Filecrux @Filecrux

$EMAT Evolution Metals, a rare-earth magnet maker in South Korea, raised 2026 revenue guidance to $10-11M from $5-8M, which it says "is not based on contracted volumes". June 30 cash was $5.3M, with going-concern doubt, vs $14.8M H1 cash burn. Yorkville bought a $22M convertible Sept 17 at 97% (about $21.3M cash, 4%, due 2028), after a $5.8M one July 14 (about $5.6M net). It converts at the lower of $5.02 or 95% of the lowest 5-day VWAP; with the stock at $1.74 at the Oct 7, 2026 close, that dilutes holders. Next: 13 ULVAC machines due in October.

$LRN Stride, an online K-12 school operator, settled with holder Fivespan, which dropped its board nominations, a stockholder proposal and a books-and-records demand for two board seats. Fivespan founder Dylan Haggart will co-chair a new Capital Allocation Committee with director Brian Shepherd once it takes effect on Oct 30. Stride held $1,034.1M cash and securities vs $418.0M long-term debt at June 30; cash is ~31% of its ~$3.3B market value at the Oct 7 close of $79.755. Fivespan accepts a standstill; a target capital structure is due in ~3 months.

$AUGO (Aura Minerals, gold and copper miner with six mines in Brazil, Mexico and Honduras) needs about 86,900 GEO in Q4 to reach the 340k low end of its 2026 guidance, after a record Q3 of 95,557 GEO lifted 9M output to 253,131 GEO. Repeating Q3 would give ~348,700, below the 365k midpoint. Q3 sales rose 20% QoQ to 93,742 GEO; Q2 brought US$336M net revenue. CEO expects a further rise in Q4 as MSG's turnaround and higher grades at Apoena and Almas kick in. Figures are preliminary; final Q3 results follow.

$AVNT Avient (colorants, Dyneema) gave new CEO Mike Frank ~$18M in sign-on awards at target: $1.6M cash (repayable if he quits within 12 months) and ~$5.0M RSUs vesting in years 3 and 5. The other ~$11.4M is target cash-settled performance units paying 0–200% on 2026–2028 adjusted EPS and relative TSR. That is ~0.5% of $3.76B market cap at Oct 7's $40.995 close. Ex-CEO Khandpur gets 2 years' salary plus 76,093 otherwise-forfeited RSUs for advising through 2026 and an extra non-compete year. Guidance reaffirmed; Q3 results Nov 4.

$CMCL Zimbabwe gold miner Caledonia cut 2026 output guide to 69,000-72,500 oz from 72,000-76,500. Caution: ~2,266 oz of the implied Q4 lift is a one-time release of gold already in the plant and carbon (1,100 + 1,166 oz), about 82% of the 2,770 oz needed to reach the low end. Q3 grade fell to 2.67 g/t from 3.00; 9-month output 49,158 oz vs 58,846. On-mine cost guide rises to $1,700-1,900/oz from $1,600-1,800. Capex guide cut to $94.3M from $103.3M 'reflects the timing of certain expenditures only', pushing spend to 2027. Normal output expected in Q4.

$HUM (Humana, Medicare Advantage insurer) says final CMS 2027 Star Ratings beat its Top Quartile goal for bonus year 2028, and it expects part of the beat to be a one-time 2028 benefit for one-time investments and shareholder returns. Top Quartile = Stars revenue per member 10% above peer median. At the $396.31 Oct 7 close, HUM trades ~44x its affirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guide (at least $9.00), so 2028 is the bet. Catch: no size given; plans are priced for Top Quartile only. Next: Dec 10, 2026 investor update; sizing by the Q4 2027 earnings call.

@tradingbios Agree it's small. Counting debt and cash it's ~$1.73B, ~9.7x adjusted EBITDA, and an activist was pitching a sale near $66/share last November. We did a deep dive on the filings: break fee, tender conditions, and where it lands if the deal breaks. filecrux.com/r/PCRX

$PCRX Follow-up: the history. In June holders backed the board over an activist urging a sale near $66/share; $36.50 is ~55% of that. Viatris owes no break fee; the pre-news close was $25.19. Next test: the offer launches by late October. Full report: filecrux.com/r/PCRX

Filecrux @Filecrux

a day ago

$PCRX Pacira BioSciences, maker of non-opioid pain drugs EXPAREL and ZILRETTA, agreed to be bought by Viatris for $36.50 a share in cash, about $1.65B of equity value, in a tender offer its board unanimously backs. That is about 2.2x the $735M-$760M of revenue Pacira guides to

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$AGNT (parent of brokerage eXp Realty) named eXp Realty CEO Leo Pareja group CEO Oct 8; founder Glenn Sanford stays Chairman. Pareja gets a $1.8M salary, 573,588 RSUs (~$2.2M at the Oct 7 close of $3.785) and an option on 1,060,814 shares at target, 0-200% on 5-yr TSR vs peers. Together ~1.0% of the 167.1M shares outstanding June 30 at target (1,634,402 shares), or ~1.6% (2,695,216 shares) if the option vests at the 200% maximum. Next: a $4.9M 2027 award, half options tied to EBIT; a Sanford consulting deal would come in a later 8-K.

$CRGY Follow-up: the Devon fields slipped to ~68,000 boe/d in July from 71,000. We estimate net debt goes from 1.6x to ~2.0x adjusted EBITDAX at this year's high oil prices; its credit line allows 3.5x. Closing: Q4 2026 or early 2027. Full report: filecrux.com/r/CRGY

Filecrux @Filecrux

a day ago

$CRGY Crescent Energy, a Houston oil and gas producer, will buy Devon's Eagle Ford assets for $4.22B in cash, an estimated net purchase price of about $3.85B after adjustments tied to the July 1, 2026 effective date. Pro forma funding: a $2.0B bridge loan, a $2.0B revolver draw

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@shaneparrish I really appreciated this conversation. It inspired me to reshape Filecrux. My dream would be to have @BillAckman's team use Filecrux to accelerate their research.

$HNRG Follow-up: Indiana coal-plant owner Hallador calls its Duke deal $700M, but $422M is estimated energy sales; only $271M ($45M/yr, 2029-35) is fixed, vs $101.5M Q2 2026 revenue. Upside: priced 20%+ over March. Sept 17 8-K: $600M Kennedy Lewis loan ($550M drawn, $50M later) + optional $75M revolver, $675M max, for 460MW Turtle Creek gas plant (<$800M); ~$120M repays bank debt; 3.5% cash+SOFR+4.5% PIK pre-start, then SOFR+8%, 3.5% floor. Watch: Indiana OK of older Merom deals by Nov 15; Turtle Creek FID (Sept goal) pending; air permit filed Sept 25.

$PCRX Pacira BioSciences, maker of non-opioid pain drugs EXPAREL and ZILRETTA, agreed to be bought by Viatris for $36.50 a share in cash, about $1.65B of equity value, in a tender offer its board unanimously backs. That is about 2.2x the $735M-$760M of revenue Pacira guides to for 2026. Holders forgo Phase 2 Part A data on PCRX-201, its knee gene therapy, due by end of 2026; Viatris expects the deal to be immediately accretive. Pacira owes a $62M fee if it takes a superior bid. Tender needs a majority and HSR clearance; close seen by end-2026.

$GAU (Galiano Gold, 90% owner of Ghana's Asanko gold mine, its principal asset): Ghana extended the Abirem lease 15 years to 2041 and Miradani 17 years to 2043, covering the mine's 5.8 Mtpa plant and Nkran Cut 3. Cut 3 took $35.6M of capitalized stripping in H1 2026; June 30 cash was $80.0M plus $25.9M restricted, no debt. The release gives no fees or terms, so this removes tenure risk rather than adding ounces. Next: a Mineral Resource and Reserve update planned for Q1 2027, folding in Esaase drilling.

$TLRY (Tilray Brands, cannabis and beer maker) burned $27.4M of free cash flow in Q1 to August 31, vs $10.6M a year ago, as inventory rose $27.8M. That is 12% of its $221.4M cash and securities. Other side: Tilray kept its FY2027 adjusted EBITDA guide of $68M-$75M, second-half weighted. Next: Tilray's 5.20% convertible notes come due June 15, 2027. Convertible debentures were carried at $59.2M in current liabilities at August 31, and between August 31 and September 8 Tilray swapped $12M of their principal for 2,841,650 new shares (8-K, Sept 14).

$CRGY Crescent Energy, a Houston oil and gas producer, will buy Devon's Eagle Ford assets for $4.22B in cash, an estimated net purchase price of about $3.85B after adjustments tied to the July 1, 2026 effective date. Pro forma funding: a $2.0B bridge loan, a $2.0B revolver draw and $247.6M of cash. At June 30, 2026 pro forma, total debt rises to $9.14B from $5.17B; the bridge matures 364 days after close. In return: ~68 Mboe/d (July 2026) and ~$140M/yr of identified synergies; it intends a debt-equity mix. Close expected Q4 2026 or early 2027.

$NUAI New Era Energy & Digital, a Texas AI data-center developer, pledged $118.3M of cash, $60.0M of it new Macquarie term loans, behind a $116.0M letter of credit for Luminant power. For scale: net tangible book value was about $138.6M at June 30, 2026, before this deal; the stock closed at $6.99 on September 23, about $744M across 106,490,928 shares. In return: 20 years of Phase 1 power. Next: up to $82.8M more security at delivery, expected Q3 2027 but tied to conditions due by December 31, 2027 and a Texas permit pause that may delay TCDC permits.

$APLD Follow-up: the 10-Q adds what the release didn't. Interest ($77.4M) now tops adjusted EBITDA ($64.4M). ~99% of unrestricted cash sits in a Macquarie-funded unit. Next test: a plant behind a $7.5B lease needs financing by March 31, 2027. Full report: filecrux.com/r/APLD

Filecrux @Filecrux

2 days ago

$APLD (AI data center builder) reported fiscal Q1 for the quarter ended Aug 31: revenue $341.9M, up 322% from a year ago, but $183.5M was fit-out work billed to tenants; base rent was $65.8M. Loss from continuing operations to common holders was $221.0M, including $49.5M of

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$IMOS (ChipMOS, Taiwan chip assembly and test house) booked record Q3 revenue of NT$8,400.8M, but September's NT$2,792.0M was up only 0.2% from August and still below July's NT$2,823.0M. Monthly sales have sat near NT$2.8B since July, so the 13.8% gain over Q2's NT$7,383.1M came from a July step-up, not a rising trend. Other side: Q3 is +36.7% YoY and the company says AI demand outpaces memory supply, with new capacity tied to customer forecasts and long-term supply agreements. Next: Q3 profit and margin vs Q2's 18%; no date set.

$LEVI What the full read of Levi Strauss's filings added: - On our math the refunds supply ~$0.04 of the $0.06 raise; without them the goal is ~$1.51 vs July's $1.49 midpoint. - Q3 adj EPS was ~$0.37 net of what it spent back, but ~$0.32 without the full refund, vs $0.34 a year ago. - The goal implies Q4 adj EPS of $0.35-$0.37 vs $0.41 a year ago. - ~$175M of Q3 currency-contract payments sit outside adj free cash flow. Net debt is only ~0.4x adj EBITDA. Full report: filecrux.com/r/LEVI

Filecrux @Filecrux

2 days ago

$LEVI Levi Strauss raised its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to $1.54-$1.56 from $1.46-$1.52, but Q3 carried $0.16 a share of IEEPA tariff refunds ($0.11 after what it spent back), and the new outlook now includes them. Underneath, US sales fell 1% and direct-to-consumer, with flat

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