Husband to Machon Method Founder, Dad, Man of God, Former corporate executive turned retail options trader...a blessed man. Tweets are not financial advice.machonmethod.com Carlsbad, CAJoined November 2021
Market failed at IB high, sold off to below IB low and failed twice thus far to break back above. Abysmal price action. I win’t play unless we can break below $4359 and then reclaim $4366/67. Be careful today.
Prediction for FOMC (hint, it’s nearly always the same): Big initial move on decision, big reverse move when Powell speaks, and perhaps emergence of trend by close. Tomorrow the “real” trend leg emerges. Don’t get trapped and if you’re really smart, don’t trade it.
90 minutes into the day and chop/basing rules the day. CPI tomorrow so we’re likely to get a big move out of this. In the meantime, stay on the correct side of things for the moment…we’re below overnight low, IB low, and opening range.
This beat up nickel trades with me everyday. Why? Because it’s journey has been hard, long, scarring, and full of lessons learned from the choices it was exposed to along the way. Success only comes after failure and your ability to learn from it.
Character change in indexes this week. SPX 1st daily red candles since May, closed under 50 EMA 1st time since May, and below bullish March trendline. Is this the start of a broader selloff and test of 200 EMA? Or will NVDA spur the next rally? I lean bearish until 4325.
NVDA ER after close today. Official transcript: "Thank you for coming today. AI, AI, AI, AI, AI. Also, AI, AI, AI, AI, and AI. Next quarter guidance is AI, AI, AI, AI. Thank you. AI."
"The bad economist pursues a small present good that will be followed by a great evil to come, while the good economist pursues a great good to come, at the risk of a small present evil."
I'm guessing we're at Option 1 currently.
Ahead of FOMC, market is telling us that big tech is worth more today than it was when fed started hiking, in the midst of a financial crisis and looming debt ceiling. Okey dokey. Will be starting a long-term short campaign before eod...hopefully at /ES 4050.
We live in a fintwit defined by lack of accountability. If someone posts a trade and I take it, understand, it's MY trade. I don't blame the poster if the trade fails. IMO, it's the #1 reason so many fail in trading.
The last time that core inflation was at today's levels and the unemployment rate was at multi-decade lows, the 10-year bond yield was running at 8-9%.
Good time to zoom out in #ES_F: Lots of bull vs bear market debate; reality is we are now 10 monthly candles side-by-side & same lvl as May 2022
Rangebound & until June low or Aug high clears, remains so, likely for months. Traders market & costly for those with "perma" biases
Good time to zoom out in #ES_F: Lots of bull vs bear market debate; reality is we are now 10 monthly candles side-by-side & same lvl as May 2022
Rangebound & until June low or Aug high clears, remains so, likely for months. Traders market & costly for those with "perma" biases
Current situation:
1. Stocks down like a 50 bps rate hike is coming
2. $VIX down like the Fed just pivoted
3. Oil prices down like we are in a recession
4. Treasury yields up like inflation is at 10%
5. Gold prices down like we have deflation
The Fed broke the stock market.
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