Open Square Capital @OpenSquareCap
OSC is an asset management firm dedicated to a thematic value-oriented investment approach. https://t.co/Tefz59c3A6 openinsightscap.com United States Joined December 2015-
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So far, MEG trading at a slight discount to CVE's offer. A bit surprised CVE hasn't raised to tie it together as Oct 9th is the vote. ISS recommending CVE means passives swing to CVE, as expected. Remaining active investors and merger arbs need to be induced. $CVE $MEG $SCR.TO
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Peloton $PTON is set to revamp its product line in time for holidays. Love what Peter Stern & mgmt team has done. Says right things & is gliding expenses down. If they show even modicum of growth, this stock will fly. So much value in a subscription biz that has LOWER churn than…
$OXY selling OxyChem for $10B. Total debt Q2 ~$24B. Net debt=1-2B lower, call it $24B. Reduce to $14B unlocks capital return (share buybacks/ dividends). Key point, Oxy now pure play E&P w/carbon capture. Think it's positioning for eventual sale. ft.com/content/800fc1…
$OXY so basically CEO Hollub swapped OxyChem for CrownRock (Eagle Ford). She now has critical mass in Permian & EF acreages. A bit of Gulf of America & there's ur oil co. Carbon capture helps next phase of enhanced oil recovery, so complete package for acquirer low on reserves.
Dallas Fed Energy Survey . . . the pain in the patch at today's oil price is real.
Curious about how stocks performed during the internet bubble '00-'02? Here you go . . . Exxon, XLE (created in '98), SPY (S&P 500), and QQQ
It's the same . . . but entirely different. $CVE.TO, $MEG.TO, $SCR.TO
Open Square Capital retweeted
+3.4% real GDP growth forecast for Q3.
+3.4% real GDP growth forecast for Q3. https://t.co/tjMHyORTw0
Both $CVE.TO and $SCR.TO current bids for $MEG.TO are flawed, the first being too low/cash heavy esp. given combined synergies. $CVE.TO needs to increase stock component, to compensate. $MEG.TO bid in contrast is too stock heavy given illiquidity even after acquisition. Higher…
Open Square Capital retweeted
I've been stopped at airports and on the street being asked what I think of the MEG situation. My thoughts? Both bids stink, and I hope they both get voted down. Given what we see coming for the oil market in 2H'26 and beyond, I think both bids materially undervalue what would…
Open Square Capital retweeted
Roll the credits, the 4 year version of "La La Land" has finally ended.
OECD inventories vs. Brent Prices. Divergence still exists. Tho OECD is largely flattish YTD, China balances have ballooned by +200M bbls. So even tho oil build not in places where it's priced, market is factoring in about half of it. That gap you see? ~100M bbls.
Open Square Capital retweeted
The observable oil inventories are clearly far from bullish. The real problem is the implied balances for Q4 and H1 next year are clearly bearish. While there may be arguments about the duration and size of the inventory build, oil prices are highly likely to face downside…
Open Square Capital retweeted
As a MEG shareholder enjoying the swimming pool that is now starting to simmer, a dozen thoughts: 1. If SCR would have shown up with anything close to current offer, they wouldn't be on the outside looking in - Self inflicted wound. 2. MEG board ran process. Process is still…
Largely agree with this, the dividend is neither here nor there as the stock price will adjust to reflect the distribution. Since it’ll come from debt borrowing, market will also adjust for the lost free cash flow as interest expense tamps it down. Arguably market already has…
Largely agree with this, the dividend is neither here nor there as the stock price will adjust to reflect the distribution. Since it’ll come from debt borrowing, market will also adjust for the lost free cash flow as interest expense tamps it down. Arguably market already has…
$SCR.TO raising the bid to 0.8 shares of SCR to 1 share of $MEG.TO, no cash. $CVE.TO's turn to raise as SCR current bid is 9% higher, at $30.32/sh ($37.90 SCR price now). This will likely be in the form of equity as that portion is too small. Surmise it'll be upped to 0.5 shares…
OPEC+ production increase coming?
$SCR.TO acquires final tranche of $MEG.TO shs, now owns 14.2%, max under CA law. Posturing continues as it faces off $CVE.TO. Both need to raise bids & see what shareholders want, cash vs. stock heavy. $242M breakup fee is par for course at 3% of deal value, it's fringe issue.…
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