Pierre @PHfloor
if you’ve got the data to back it up, I’m interested 💿 Joined June 2020-
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What?
Not the sweetest neighborhood in SF, but that there is a decent sized condo, at a price-point equivalent to over a decade ago.
Not the sweetest neighborhood in SF, but that there is a decent sized condo, at a price-point equivalent to over a decade ago.
I hope @ScrinkoCa doesn't hate me for this, but this ranks as one of the best posts of the year so far.
Top panel is new home price index Bottom panel is SAAR housing starts The correlation is not perfect, but the overall trend is pretty obvious. Starts move in tandem with new home prices. Want more starts, pray for higher new home prices.
Why did housing starts skyrocket when population tanked a few years back and starts pulled back when population went through the roof last year? Because it's not about expat population growth, it's about home price momentum and price-fueled speculative demand.
This is a summary of homebuilder sentiment in Canada Q4 2023. These reports are slow to come out😡 Based on the highlighted piece, housing supply policy experts should be setting up meetings with the BoC instead of the feds.
What I adore about YIMBYs is their dedication to influencing land use policy and housing supply via X kids and grandkids may one day be the beneficiaries of the effort and the effects this level of selflessness has no parallel 🥰
This is how I think it went down👇 Policy "expert" with buddies at parliament hill: "we need a wartime-like effort to build housing" Minister: Military will not be deployed to build houses Policy "expert": Ok, how about post-war home blue-prints instead Minister: Cool
You are not a legit housing policy "expert" if you don't understand business cycles/market dynamics risk adjusted returns/hurdle rates residual value of land/input costs supply/demand characteristics unique to houses status value premium over economic value of houses
Want to know what a housing crisis is?👇 Stop everything, all hands on deck to mitigate, fix this. Everything else is just desiring a better place to live in a better location.
Want to know what a housing crisis is?👇 Stop everything, all hands on deck to mitigate, fix this. Everything else is just desiring a better place to live in a better location.
Let's put our thinking caps on for a second. If 3-bed apts demand was high If you could get the same per sq/ft return, or higher, as for studios, 1-beds 2-beds And vacancy risk no higher than for smaller units The market would be flooded with them.
Let's put our thinking caps on for a second. If 3-bed apts demand was high If you could get the same per sq/ft return, or higher, as for studios, 1-beds 2-beds And vacancy risk no higher than for smaller units The market would be flooded with them.
So what does it tell us? It tells us who and how many people took the time to submit to the city clerks. That's it.
How many times have you been unhappy with the political party in control of the government? I'm guessing a lot, based on the persistently low approval ratings. But hating the government is NOT an investment strategy. Regardless of which party is in control, the market tends to go…
Chicago multifamily acquisition is the opportunity of a lifetime. Deals are trading 2/3 of replacement cost. Best food scene in the country, great place for Big 10 graduates, and easy to get in and out of
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Mute "stagflation" on your feed, this was another incredible US GDP result. Growth ex net trade and inventory = 2.8% (2.77% last Q) Govt contribution down, but residential investment picking up the slack! Non-res still printing positive. Cyclical parts of GDP crushing it. 1/
Brutal, this downtown San Francisco condo just fell out of contract And now back on the market Purchased in 2022 for $1.075MM Now listed at $739k
@deerpointmacro Harper was chasing expensive to produce oil sands and wanted to make Canada an 'energy superpower'. Big, bad bet. Shale came, COVID, and worldwide no desire to invest in oil in the future. Subtract oil and gas and what happens to productivity. x.com/LissaBjerkelun…
@ambermac Hi Amber: have you seen this paper published by McMaster, defying the conventional position. Canada actually leading on productivity once O&G sector is removed. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
@PHfloor @daniel_foch The mortgage interest component of CPI will be pushed up by 5yr fixed rates from the pandemic resetting. Likely headed down but should stay high if rates stay at 5-6%
[Ca. 1860] "Canal locks and Major's Hill," viewing towards corner of Rideau & Sussex from "Government Hill" during construction of Parl. #colourized #Ottawa From my new article on history of the Chateau Lafayette (Part 1: 1849-1863): ashleynewall.ca/2024/04/chatea…
2s10s tends to follow changes in output gap. Renormalizing of output gap should help to steepend yield curve. A large explanation of this is the change in the output gap is a sign of inflation/deflationary changes in the price level.
Another really weak print for February SEPH - a slight decline put payrolls lower than they were in September! Recent job growth has been much weaker in SEPH than LFS. One potential reason for discrepancy, is that assumptions of LFS population growth look different in reality.
Nice W for Indeed data, as today's February JVWS showed that, indeed, the drop off in Canadian recruiting activity that started in mid-2022 has plateaued so far in 2024.
Love this new functionality from REALM. Market snapshots are a breeze now.
How many times have you been unhappy with the political party in control of the government? I'm guessing a lot, based on the persistently low approval ratings. But hating the government is NOT an investment strategy. Regardless of which party is in control, the market tends to go…
It'll be interesting to see how long it takes for this drop off in foreign job seeker interest to start showing up in the actual population numbers, but I'd be surprised if it hasn't appeared by Q2 of this year. 4/4
@PHfloor @pwaldkirch There was talk of the SkyTrain extending to UBC— in 2008 when I went there 20 years later and it’s still not done Meanwhile MILLIONS OF NEW PEOPLE ADDED
Long-run trends in Canadian post-secondary enrolment, by field of study (all program types). Major shift away from humanities to a combo of business, health, and STEM.
@SteveSaretsky Is this Q1 data for each year or comparing annual totals to 2024Q1?
@PHfloor Cause they're all getting stolen? 😂
What doesn't come through in this graph focusing on changes, is that in level terms the foreign click share is consistently highest for STEM and agriculture job postings.
@PHfloor He used to spend 80% of his time reading and understanding the world. It stands to reason he doesn’t see value in paying someone to do it for him. He is the economist.
@PHfloor Yeah, increase in the deficit is good because it means private sector surplus. Fiscal thrust 🚀
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