Twist @TwistedEcon

Macro quant New York, NY Joined January 2015

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Brad Setser @Brad_Setser

2 years ago

I think the facts here largely speak for themselves. Google, Facebook, Qualcomm and now perhaps Nvidia have onshored the bulk of their IP. But Apple, Microsoft and big Pharma have not. 11/

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This is how you create affordable housing: "...apartments, restaurants and schools can be built in all but two zones. These laws have made it almost impossible for local groups to stop construction within the legal limits of the designated zone." konichivalue.com/p/contrarian-i…

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Twist @TwistedEcon

4 years ago

Handy table from UBS on equity sector by inflation/growth regime. In stagflation, tech hardware, energy, and real estate have done well.

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Twist @TwistedEcon

4 years ago

We're all just trading the fed now. GS compares equities where the value depends more on short term profits (1-10 years) vs long term (10+).

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Twist @TwistedEcon

5 years ago

It's been a great run. Time to pay some cap gains and wait for another swing.

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Twist @TwistedEcon

5 years ago

This paper uses Eurostoxx dividend futures to back out the term structure of equity risk premia and finds that lower rates have driven a steeper premia curve. So stocks look pretty good. It would be really interesting to see this done for US equities. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

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Twist @TwistedEcon

5 years ago

Value of cash is higher when rate volatility is higher. This is pretty intuitive but cool to see it quantified. Helps me to rationalize my cash balance. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

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Twist @TwistedEcon

5 years ago

Handy charts from GS for thinking about the interest rate sensitivity of your equity portfolio, but their utility duration is surprisingly low so I'm a bit skeptical

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Twist @TwistedEcon

5 years ago

Nice chart from State Street decomposing TIPS breakevens into liquidity premium and actual rate expectations. TIPS corroborate that the yield move has been a real yield move.

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St. Louis Fed @stlouisfed

5 years ago

Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate decreases to 2.67% in the week ended Dec. 17, while the 15-year rate declines to 2.21%—both @FreddieMac survey record lows ow.ly/SALU50COGw9