The Wick Report @WickReport

@zerohedge Call buying returning after a week like this is worth noting. It can fuel a sharp bounce through dealer hedging, but it's positioning, not confirmation. The more useful tell is whether the AI leaders reclaim the levels they lost this week, like $QQQ's 100-day, on a closing basis.

Chart of the day: Brent crude 🛢 Oil tagged ~$118 on Iran headlines today and settled near $116 after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia, around its highest since late April, while energy stocks closed at a record. $118 is the level worth watching over the weekend, with ~$114 the first area below. Not financial advice.

@Barchart Lumber is often read as an early housing tell, so a 2-year low is worth watching alongside builder sentiment and mortgage rates. The key question is whether it's demand cooling or supply catching up; builder earnings commentary should help sort that out.

Closing bell: the Dow took the hit, and tech finally steadied. The Dow fell 626 points (-1.18%) to 52,241, the S&P 500 slipped 0.43% and the Nasdaq ended nearly flat (-0.08%). It was a broad selloff under the surface, though: about three of every four S&P stocks finished lower. The S&P and Nasdaq are now down two weeks running. Oil did most of the damage again. Brent climbed to ~$116 after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia, its highest since late April, and energy (+2.4%) closed at a record. SpaceX's reported wireless push hit telecoms: $T and $TMUS dropped 6%+, while tower owner $CCI jumped ~10%. In earnings, $SLB rose 6.7% on a beat, and $AXP fell 3.9% despite raising guidance, as it cuts 5% of staff. The data held up better than the mood. Flash PMIs beat (manufacturing 56.0), and UMich came in at 48.0, ahead of forecasts but still near record lows. The 10-year sits around 4.99%, down ~11bp on the week. Crypto had a quiet session. $BTC is ~$81.2K and $ETH is ~$2,392, and neither lost a key level on a closing basis. $BTC: $81K remains the key level, with $80K under it. Clearing $82.4K opens $84–84.5K, and a close below $81K would put $80K and then $76K in view. $ETH: $2,355 is support, and $2,440–2,445 is the level to clear. Next week is loaded: the Fed on Wednesday (a hold is expected), $MSFT and $GOOGL that night, $AMZN Thursday, plus GDP and PCE. Over the weekend, oil headlines are the risk worth watching. 👀 Not financial advice.

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

@KobeissiLetter Signals like this are good at describing risk and pretty bad at timing it. Stretched can stay stretched while liquidity holds up. Nearer term, price is the tell: $QQQ closed Thursday below its 100-day (~$720). Whether that level gets reclaimed is worth watching.

Midday check: stocks are still bleeding, but crypto is holding up. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit five-week lows this morning, and $META is down ~7% as AI-spending worries keep hitting tech after the Nasdaq's worst day since June. Brent pushed up to $118 on reports of possible US strikes on Iran before Trump said the war could end "very quickly." Gold and silver have shed ~$1.3T in four days. The 10-year is holding below 5% after its sharpest one-day drop since March 2023. Meanwhile $BTC sits at ~$81.5K (+0.6%) and $ETH at ~$2,407 (+1.3%), so there's a small decoupling to the upside worth watching. StoneX calls BTC holding $80K through ETF outflows and a tech selloff a sign of strength. One flag: a whale moved ~4,000 BTC to Binance and Deribit. That could be a sale or a derivatives trade, so it's unclear which. Levels haven't changed since this morning: $BTC: $81K is the key level, with $80K the floor under it. Reclaiming $82.4K opens $84–84.5K, then the $87–88K top of the October range. Losing $80K brings $76K into view. $ETH: support at $2,355. A break above $2,440–2,445 opens the ~$2,690 area. Risk-off everywhere except the coins, for now. 👀 Not financial advice.

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

Worth noting the split: Brent tagged ~$115 today, its highest since early May, while WTI sits around $101 and is roughly flat on the week. A ~$13 Brent-WTI spread says the premium is mostly in Gulf and seaborne barrels for now. If WTI holds above $100, the pass-through to gasoline and inflation expectations is what's worth watching.

@KobeissiLetter Notable that it's breaking on escalating US-Iran tension, the kind of headline that usually supports gold. $4,000 is the level worth watching now: a quick reclaim would read more like a flush, while daily closes below it could turn that round number into resistance. $GLD

Crypto caught its breath overnight after Thursday's selloff. $BTC is back around $81.7K, ranging $80.8–81.9K, and $ETH is steady near $2,400. Stocks are the bigger story. $QQQ dropped 2.6% yesterday, its worst session since early June, and the Nasdaq 100 lost about $1.2T on AI-spending worries. Per Reuters, it was the first day since the COVID crash that every hedge fund style Goldman tracks lost more than 1%. Meanwhile Brent hit $114, its highest since May, and the 10-year is back below 5%. Flows turned too. BTC ETFs saw $635M of net outflows yesterday, the biggest since June, flipping October negative, and ETH ETFs shed $110M. On the other side, JPMorgan's tokenized money market funds went live on Solana. Levels: $BTC is holding $81K and its 50-day average, with bids stacked near $80K. Reclaiming $82.0–82.4K would put $84K back in play, with the ~$90.5K swing high above that. A close below $81K would put $75–76K in view. $ETH support is $2,355; reclaiming $2,440–2,445 opens a retry of $2,500. On deck: flash PMIs at 7:45am MT, UMich sentiment at 8:00, and $AXP before the bell. 👀 Not financial advice.

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

Rough day across the board. AI and tech led a broad selloff, with more than $750B wiped off US stocks at the open, and the stock Fear & Greed index is sitting at 21, extreme fear. The 10-year slipped under 5% for the first time in a month, but with oil firm (WTI above $100, Brent near a yearly high) and gold and silver sliding too, it read more like de-risking than relief. Not everyone's convinced the AI selloff makes sense. There's still no news of hyperscalers cutting capex, and some on the stock side are calling it forced selling more than a change in the story. $BTC took the hit but held its ground. It wicked to $80,790 this morning, then chopped between $81.0K and $81.5K all afternoon, just above the $81K support, with bids stacked near $80K. Flows haven't flinched: BTC ETFs took in ~$1.08B so far this week, and Circle minted $1.5B USDC on Solana. From here, $82.0–82.4K is the level to reclaim to put $84K back in play. A close below $81K would put the $75–76K zone in view. $ETH held the $2,355 trigger (low $2,357). Reclaiming $2,445 opens a retry of $2,500, while losing $2,355 opens room toward ~$2,200. $ZEC was the day's weakest major, down 8%. Headlines: Visa reportedly in talks to buy Fireblocks for $2.5B, and Ireland fined Coinbase $3.25M. 🧊 Not financial advice.

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

@KobeissiLetter Today's move helps at the margin: the 10-year fell ~19bp to ~4.95%, its biggest one-day drop since March 2023. But it came alongside a ~2.9% Nasdaq slide, so it reads more like a flight to safety than relief. Whether 10s can hold below 5% is worth watching for the deficit math.

Chart of the day: $QQQ closed at $704.47 (-2.9%), slipping under its 100-day average near $720 and closing below the lower Bollinger Band (~$706). Closes outside the band often see a snapback, but the 100-day flipping from support to overhead is the level worth watching from here. 📉 Not financial advice.

@KobeissiLetter Biggest Nasdaq drop since June, and crypto hasn't been spared. Worth watching whether $BTC holds $81K into tonight: reclaiming $82–82.4K would ease the pressure, while a daily close below $81K puts the $76K area in view.

The build-out still looks intact: $NVDA suppliers are expanding substrate capacity 2.5x and $AMKR is lifting advanced packaging capacity 300%+. Today reads more like a risk-off rotation, with oil pushing higher and $QQQ slipping under its 100-day. Semis are about two weeks into this drawdown; the July one took around five to bottom. Whether QQQ can reclaim that 100-day is worth watching.

Midday check: the risk-off mood from this morning spread across everything. More than $750B came off US stocks at the open, and the Nasdaq is down about 2%. $QQQ broke its 100-day average before bouncing off the bottom of its Bollinger Band. Brent is pushing toward a new yearly high, gold and silver are sliding too, and $200B of $SPCX shares unlocked for trading today. $BTC briefly slipped to $80.8K, just under the $81K support, and is back around $81.2K, now below its 50-day average. Order books show bids stacked near $80K and sellers from $82K to $85.5K. The $82.0–82.4K area (lost support plus the 4H 50 EMA) is the level to reclaim to put $84K back in play. A 4H or daily close below $81K would put the $76K area in view. $ETH is at $2,378 and underperforming BTC. It tagged $2,357, just above the $2,355 trigger. Losing that opens room toward ~$2,200, while reclaiming $2,445 would bring $2,500 back. Flows are holding up: BlackRock's ETFs took in ~$31M BTC and ~$15M ETH, and Circle minted $1.5B USDC on Solana. Visa is reportedly in talks to buy Fireblocks, and Robinhood got the green light for crypto in the UAE. 👀 Not financial advice.

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

@rektcapital Lines up with the 4H picture too. The push toward ~$84.8K faded, $BTC lost the 4H 50 EMA (~$82.4K), and it's now testing $81K, a key support. A daily close below it would put the $75–76K macro zone back in view; reclaiming $82.4K would be a first sign the range is repairing.

The tape agrees for now. $BTC got rejected at $84–84.5K and is leaning on $81K, a key support on the 4H. Holding it and reclaiming ~$82.4K keeps a range back toward $84K in play; a close below $81K puts the $75–76K macro zone in view. ETF inflows (~$1.08B this week) are the quiet offset worth watching.

$BTC finally cleared $84K this morning and has held it all day, with roughly $50M of shorts liquidated on the way through. Fewer than 5% of BTC put options sit above $84K, so most of the bearish hedging is now underwater. The broader tape helped. $META posted a strong Q3 ($64.6B revenue, +26% YoY), $SPCX kept climbing while other neocloud names went flat, and JPMorgan reportedly doubled its SPCX target to $500. On the policy side, the OCC finalized its GENIUS Act stablecoin rules, and Solana's Alpenglow upgrade went live, cutting finality to ~150ms. Technically, the $84.2-84.5K breakout zone is now support. If it holds, $86.4K and then the $87.3K liquidity are the next areas to watch. A loss of $83K would raise the odds of a deeper pullback toward $81K. $ETH tagged $2,524 before fading back to ~$2,475. Holding the 4H 50 EMA (~$2,440) keeps a retest of $2,500 in play, with ~$2,690 above that. Below $2,355, the picture turns weaker. Risks worth keeping in mind: oil and energy are still making highs, the US is reportedly pulling some embassy staff from Gulf states, and France's 10-year yield just hit 5%, a 24-year high. The Fed meets 10/28. 👀 Not financial advice.

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

@KobeissiLetter A 29 print puts builder sentiment back at 2012 levels, even as equities lean on strong AI earnings. Worth watching whether this starts showing up in housing starts and permits over the next few months, since the hard data often catches up to sentiment with a lag.