Tony Zhou @ZhouTony
Just another market speculator trying to predict the future and end up learning a lot from the past. Also at @ZhouGuanyang where I tweet sporadically on betting Joined March 2009-
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Tony Zhou retweeted
Wild Gambler Wins Millions by Betting on Transgender Athletes 🏳️⚧️⚧️🏅
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Simply incredible the advances in computer vision. The next generation of quantitative sports modeling looks bright.
Simply incredible the advances in computer vision. The next generation of quantitative sports modeling looks bright.
Machine learning is the same thing when you think about it—a fancy way of connecting the dots.
Machine learning is the same thing when you think about it—a fancy way of connecting the dots.
Horse betting contest players can relate to this dilemma
Horse betting contest players can relate to this dilemma
Dang, flights are expensive! I have to finish like 4th out of 600+ in the NHC tournament to break even on the trip.
For all the market junkies out there … US treasury bonds … what a move! I’m looking to really ramp up risk in this space and need your help on gauging sentiment! Will interest rates rise or fall into year end and how are you positioned?
Skill is repeatable, likely to persist into the future, shows consistency in results. Luck is one-off, mean-reverts, and utterly inconsistent.
People might get the wrong idea that I’m bashing 2WP players. I’m not! In fact, 2WP is a great place to start because the high luck factor prevents you from getting killed too fast. And those that dominate 2WP CONSISTENTLY, have a big amount of handicapping skill to overcome luck
Another bet to prove skill vs. luck ratio in contest formats. I can choose 10% of the field in the BCBC and you can chose 10% of the field in the NHC. Whoever chooses the winner, wins the bet. If we both pick right, it’s a push.
In gambling, a view without a proper bet to back it up isn’t worth sh*t. If you disagreed with the market or a person, the best way to prove out your stance is to bet it against that market or person.
Listen to ITP as he continues to spit wisdom to all of us openly and for free, despite getting backlash. He is usually right as his ideas has been tested with real $ against the market rather than just some shaky idea based on a gut feeling and small sample-fooled by randomness.
Listen to ITP as he continues to spit wisdom to all of us openly and for free, despite getting backlash. He is usually right as his ideas has been tested with real $ against the market rather than just some shaky idea based on a gut feeling and small sample-fooled by randomness.
Tony Zhou retweeted
@Vdg55978741 And you’re right. I suck at picking winners but I think I’m pretty good at betting and making $. Picking winners is not what gambling is about. The public does a great job doing that and they lose a ton of money. You wanna pick winners or make money? They are not the same!
Tim knows variance dominates everything in a 2WP contest with a top heavy payout structure (think NHC). Props to him. Trying to win a contest like this with short prices is like trying to scoop a big Pick 6 using only 10-1 or less. Possible? … yes. Probable? … take a guess.
Amen!
How did the naming of this horse get past the Jockey Club?! 😂
Gambling in a nutshell.
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