Justin Cole, CFA @_JustinJCole
Senior Investment Strategist at Gate City Investment Services. Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member SIPC https://t.co/4V6GweiJAm. Mapleton, ND Joined April 2024-
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Combining the two, it's clear the economy's recent resilience is coming from the recent ramp-up in business investment in software and technology, which contributed an average of more than 1%-pt to real GDP growth in Q1 and Q2.
🧵 (1/8) My new working paper with Maurice Obstfeld, “Tariffs as Fiscal Policy”, was just posted today @PIIE. Within, we evaluate the new role that tariffs are playing in the US economy.
From Michael Cembalest: AI related stocks have accounted for 75% of S&P 500 returns, 80% of earnings growth and 90% of capital spending growth since ChatGPT launched in November 2022 This is one for the history books assets.jpmprivatebank.com/content/dam/jp…
New home sales ran much stronger than expected in August, rising 20.5% MoM. With sales this strong, it is curious why builder sentiment remains in the basement. At any rate, completed units for sale continue to rise and this means slack in single-family continues to build.
Want to make your favorite perma-bear mad? 🐻 The S&P 500 is about to be up five months in a row. A year after 5 month win streaks? Higher 28 out of 30 times and up 12.6% on avg. 🐂
BofA: In Q4, all major equity indices tend to show strong positive average returns and elevated up ratios. SPX +2.84% (74% of time), NDX +6.16% (69%), RTY +4.58% (76%).
US manufacturing is slowing: The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index fell -10 points in September, to -17, the 4th-lowest reading since 2020. The 3-month moving average dropped to -15 points, one of the weakest since 2008. Shipments fell -15 points, to -20, the 2nd-lowest since…
Updated this chart. Same as it ever was. If you let politics get in the way of investing, you'll likely miss out on big profits.
Waiting for a Pullback to invest idle cash at lower prices? You're not alone. Historically, 74% of the time you would've gotten that lower price at some point in the future, but 26% of the time the market kept on running and never looked back. Video: youtube.com/watch?v=J_Df0W…
Foreign investors now have a record allocation to U.S. equities @NDR_Research
"Since the 1920s, there have been four Roaring decades, i.e., with the S&P 500 rising over 200%. We may be in a fifth now, to be followed by a sixth during the 2030s." @yardeni
In August, there were an estimated 35.2% more home sellers than buyers in U.S. housing market … with high percentages seen in prior months, makes for strongest buyer’s summer on record per @Redfin
BREAKING: Retail investors bought $4.5 BILLION in US equities on Wednesday after the Fed cut rates, the most since the last week of April. This marks the 79th consecutive daily purchase. According to Goldman Sachs, weekly retail purchases were the largest since December for the…
"Individual Stocks are not overbought — unlike at previous tops of significance." @MacroCharts
This bull market will turn 36 months old in a couple weeks. Good reminder that the avg bull since WWII lasted 67 months.
"Things you don’t see at the top of a Bubble… Goldman’s Total Positioning Indicator is STILL slightly underweight US equities." Goldman Sachs via @Marlin_Capital
Momentum > Fundamentals. Math Wins Again trendlabs.com/momentum-funda…
GS: US Potential GDP Growth Has Accelerated From Its Pre-Pandemic Pace, Reflecting Both Stronger Productivity Growth and Higher Labor Force Growth
Very interesting
.@RenMacLLC’s Dutta: “Consumption has never declined in front of an economic slump...I think what this analysis shows is that if you are waiting on the consumer to make a call about a turn in the business cycle, you are likely waiting too long.”
Sadie Bruen @BruenSadie14652
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ISABELNET @ISABELNET_SA
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267K Followers 2K Following Macro, investing and geopolitics. Steno Research is joining @RealVision 🍾🍌
Bloomberg Terminal @TheTerminal
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