Cade Massey @bcmassey
I study & teach decision-making, influence & negotiation. opimweb.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/1757/ Austin/Philly Joined March 2009-
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Good excuse to recommend Escape From Model Land by the terrific @H4wkm0th. @greerreNFL, suspect you'd love it. Should prolly recommend it annually, around the draft, as ballast for all the GM/scout criticism we send around. amazon.com/Escape-Model-L…
Good excuse to recommend Escape From Model Land by the terrific @H4wkm0th. @greerreNFL, suspect you'd love it. Should prolly recommend it annually, around the draft, as ballast for all the GM/scout criticism we send around. amazon.com/Escape-Model-L…
Principles are useful.
Always enjoy talking to the @StatsBomb team, on any matter. They are the most recent big player to the (North American) football analytics scene. Super thoughtful group.
Always enjoy talking to the @StatsBomb team, on any matter. They are the most recent big player to the (North American) football analytics scene. Super thoughtful group.
Love these guys and their show. Appreciated the chance to go on.
Love these guys and their show. Appreciated the chance to go on.
I'd like to join these sentiments. Robin was the very first person to welcome me into the Behavioral Science community and was for many years a supportive and wise counselor. He was somehow both serious *and* twinkly. I was lucky to cross paths with him, especially when I did.
I'd like to join these sentiments. Robin was the very first person to welcome me into the Behavioral Science community and was for many years a supportive and wise counselor. He was somehow both serious *and* twinkly. I was lucky to cross paths with him, especially when I did.
Probably the best take I've ever seen on the messiness of the NFL draft. So much expertise, so much at stake, so much chance - it's a glorious mess.
Probably the best take I've ever seen on the messiness of the NFL draft. So much expertise, so much at stake, so much chance - it's a glorious mess.
Missed this first time around. @CassSunstein highlights a particularly meaningful thread in Kahneman’s life.
Missed this first time around. @CassSunstein highlights a particularly meaningful thread in Kahneman’s life.
Hey @instagram. My account on your platform has been hacked / taken over and the support you offer online is laughably unhelpful. Suggestions?
I was so lucky to be able to have Danny Kahneman as a best friend and collaborator for decades. He usually ended our conversations with "to be continued..." but I now have to simulate his part which is impossible. My favorite image of us "working".
One illustration of how Danny Kahneman has influenced me. This is the “top shelf” of my bookcase in my home office. Kahneman + Tversky + my thesis advisor Howard Raiffa + a few other classics. Yes, there are first copies at work. @CassSunstein
Great fun here - whole thread. Nice work, Jon.
Great fun here - whole thread. Nice work, Jon.
Fun list. #9, on reflection, a great way put the most valuable moments in a classroom. HT @AgnesCallard
Fun list. #9, on reflection, a great way put the most valuable moments in a classroom. HT @AgnesCallard https://t.co/FSiWWqICNU
Crabtree/Gideon, another perspective. Oh goodie.
These are great. But the best thing about @mrianleslie is that he's not usually this direct. You get this kind of judgment and wisdom between the lines while he goes on about the Beatles or whatever (and you'll be interested in the whatever). One of my most reliable pleasures.
These are great. But the best thing about @mrianleslie is that he's not usually this direct. You get this kind of judgment and wisdom between the lines while he goes on about the Beatles or whatever (and you'll be interested in the whatever). One of my most reliable pleasures.
The throughline of our first show of '24 was storytelling, how it connects to forecasting, statistics, persuasion. More or less equal parts football and psychology. My partner @Tastierkakes later said it seemed like therapy for me. He wasn't wrong.
The throughline of our first show of '24 was storytelling, how it connects to forecasting, statistics, persuasion. More or less equal parts football and psychology. My partner @Tastierkakes later said it seemed like therapy for me. He wasn't wrong.
.@BruceFeldmanCFB has been putting together program evaluations/commentary on this year's playoff teams from rival coaches and they are fantastic. Gives you a fresh perspective on the teams.
.@BruceFeldmanCFB has been putting together program evaluations/commentary on this year's playoff teams from rival coaches and they are fantastic. Gives you a fresh perspective on the teams.
Rufus @RufusPeabody
51K Followers 746 Following Pro sports bettor. Co-founder @UnabatedSports and @MasseyPeabody analytics. Co-host @BetTheProcess. Rufus is a dog's name.Computer Cowboy @benbbaldwin
106K Followers 724 Following @ben_bot_baldwin | @nflfastR | @Open_Source_FB Danny's economist friend | bbaldwin206 at gmail dotcomEric Eager 📊🏈 @ericeager_
39K Followers 3K Following VP @sumersports. Author. Luck is a 1st-order term and a bad teacher. Mentorship matters. SumerSports 2024 Draft Show on Sirius XM NFL Channel 88. Tweets expire.Kevin Cole @KevinCole___
39K Followers 1K Following 🏈 @Unexpected_Pts newsletter/pod. Previously Data Scientist @PFF, Director of Data & Analytics @RotoGrinders. Lifelong soccer fan since Nov 2022Plus EV Analytics @PlusEVAnalytics
24K Followers 452 Following Actuary. Gambler. Pragmatist. Canadian. Small data specialist. Instructor “Art of Sports Betting Analytics” https://t.co/8cxdAMuYbuAaron Schatz 🏈 @ASchatzNFL
87K Followers 566 Following Chief Analytics Officer @FTNFantasy. Creator of DVOA. ESPN+ NFL analyst. Ex-radio DJ. AP All-Pro/MVP voter. I specialize in nuanced, ice-cold NFL takes.Bill Connelly @ESPN_BillC
81K Followers 3K Following ESPN writer, professional nerd. SP+. Author of two books (Study Hall and 50 Best*). College football, soccer, tennis. Puma addiction.Josh Hermsmeyer @friscojosh
45K Followers 1K Following The Air Yards guy | Sign up for Air Mail, home of the Buy Low Model: https://t.co/dGCwXnmeLT | I don't have the evidence, but I have lots of theoriesLee Sharpe @LeeSharpeNFL
13K Followers 405 Following He/him | https://t.co/O7VysPMTBV | Developer @nflseedR | Game data @nflfastR | Former Betting Analyst @PFF | Go BearsSam Hoppen @SamHoppen
15K Followers 994 Following @FantasyPros Data Scientist 📊| Formerly @Betsperts & @4for4football Data Analytics Manager 💻| #GoPackGo | Opinions are my ownSean Clement @SeanfromSeabeck
6K Followers 706 Following VP of Football Analytics @SumerSports. Passionate derailer of meetingsspanky @spanky
44K Followers 230 Following Pro Sports Bettor. Host of @BeBetterBettors. Created @bet_bash @spankodds and @theSGHOF. Betting Partner inquiries - DM @ChineseMike2.Andy Molitor @AndyMSFW
22K Followers 949 Following Director of Content for @Betsperts. The MN half of @DeepDivePod. Making newsletters about sports I like to bet. @BetspertsGolf Rabbit Holer.Bureau of Human-Bovin.. @CowboysStats
22K Followers 2K Following Now-defunct repository of advanced stats and graphics celebrating the human-animal hybrid lifestyle. Saw beauty in the grotesque, and adhered to the Code.Robby @greerreNFL
8K Followers 290 Following NFL analytics & prediction || betting models available on https://t.co/r78qb6taxkAnchorage Man @SethPartnow
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13 Followers 3K Following+EV @PlusEVonly
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1 Followers 641 FollowingSteve C @dfsnascarguy
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201 Followers 1K FollowingSmit (smitbajaj.eth) @SBajajSports
558 Followers 856 Following sports biz & data sci. @nyu | 2024 nfl big data bowl finalist | data science @alphaplayai | r&d @howielongshort | fmr: @parisbasketball | @insideigglesJeremy @newtonallstar
28 Followers 1K FollowingRK @rskellogg
1K Followers 2K FollowingBrianD @BdaltonBrian
78 Followers 618 FollowingRufus @RufusPeabody
51K Followers 746 Following Pro sports bettor. Co-founder @UnabatedSports and @MasseyPeabody analytics. Co-host @BetTheProcess. Rufus is a dog's name.Eric Eager 📊🏈 @ericeager_
39K Followers 3K Following VP @sumersports. Author. Luck is a 1st-order term and a bad teacher. Mentorship matters. SumerSports 2024 Draft Show on Sirius XM NFL Channel 88. Tweets expire.Kevin Cole @KevinCole___
39K Followers 1K Following 🏈 @Unexpected_Pts newsletter/pod. Previously Data Scientist @PFF, Director of Data & Analytics @RotoGrinders. Lifelong soccer fan since Nov 2022Timo Riske @PFF_Moo
29K Followers 125 Following Mathematician, Data science @PFF. The simple-minded thinks everything that didn't happen couldn't have happened. Tweets/opinions are my own.Michael Lopez @StatsbyLopez
28K Followers 696 Following Data & Analytics @NFL, with stops at Skidmore (Asst Prof), Brown (PhD), UMass (MS), and Bates (Math, 🏈)Bill Connelly @ESPN_BillC
81K Followers 3K Following ESPN writer, professional nerd. SP+. Author of two books (Study Hall and 50 Best*). College football, soccer, tennis. Puma addiction.Josh Hermsmeyer @friscojosh
45K Followers 1K Following The Air Yards guy | Sign up for Air Mail, home of the Buy Low Model: https://t.co/dGCwXnmeLT | I don't have the evidence, but I have lots of theoriesSean Clement @SeanfromSeabeck
6K Followers 706 Following VP of Football Analytics @SumerSports. Passionate derailer of meetingsspanky @spanky
44K Followers 230 Following Pro Sports Bettor. Host of @BeBetterBettors. Created @bet_bash @spankodds and @theSGHOF. Betting Partner inquiries - DM @ChineseMike2.Unabated @UnabatedSports
20K Followers 202 Following Bet Smarter. The tools and resources you need to become a winning sports bettor. Sign up for the Unabated Newsletter: https://t.co/ncbHoVBcCaMatt Harmon @MattHarmon_BYB
167K Followers 1K Following Football writer and analyst for Yahoo. Creator of #ReceptionPerception methodology for wide receiver evaluation. I did it my way.Adam Harstad @AdamHarstad
19K Followers 50 Following Eschews obfuscation. Espouses elucidation. Writes about football. Kisses and tells.Robby @greerreNFL
8K Followers 290 Following NFL analytics & prediction || betting models available on https://t.co/r78qb6taxkKaty Milkman @katy_milkman
53K Followers 1K Following Prof. @Wharton, behavioral scientist, co-director of @BehaviorChange, #Choiceology podcast host & author of WSJ Bestseller HOW TO CHANGE (https://t.co/IuGdasw1Sm)Chris B. Brown @smartfootball
125K Followers 642 Following Chris B. Brown, Smart Football editor, and author of The Art of Smart Football (Amazon: https://t.co/STgUVsOXkl ). [email protected]Brian Burke @bburkeESPN
34K Followers 127 Following Driver of the #13 Wonder Bread - Colt 45 Malt Liquor - BMW 330Ci. Fly Navy. Beat Army.Jeff Ma @jeffma
25K Followers 915 Following Chief Digital Officer @troon co-host @bettheprocess, Speaker. Ex-VP, @microsoft for startups, Ex-VP Analytics/DS @twitter. ex-ESPN Predictive Analytics ExpertDan Goldstein @dggoldst
10K Followers 942 Following Senior Principal Research Manager at Microsoft Research NYC. Economics and Computational Social Science. Distinguished Scholar at Wharton.Matthew Edwards @TheCoachEdwards
4K Followers 1K Following Head of Football Analysis @StatsBomb_FB Former Director of Football Analytics @UVAFootball 2017 @weareafca 30 Under 30 #LukeVsLeukPeter B. Bach, MD @peterbachmd
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32K Followers 1K Following Minnesota Vikings beat writer @TheAthletic. Mizzou alum from ‘Bama. [email protected]. Let the kids write.Graham Allison @GrahamTAllison
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669 Followers 307 Following https://t.co/2nAnnFkQkT Professor of Economics at Columbia Business School. Primary research areas are organizational economics and firm strategy.Chase Snyder @ChasingSnyder
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125K Followers 834 Following NBA and WNBA writer for ESPN. Co-host of the Fabulous @peltoncast. Pocket square enthusiast. Now posting on BlueSky.Marco Altini, PhD @altini_marco
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152K Followers 5K Following Columnist & Editorial Board member @WashingtonPost; Research prof @FullerSeminary; Order my book THE PROBLEM OF DEMOCRACY: https://t.co/NO66uWn3vEHeilbrunn Center for .. @CenterDodd
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3K Followers 39 Following Thomas Merton Society of Great Britain & Ireland. Exploring the life and writings of Merton and his impact on the modern world. Join us. #ThomasMertonKelley Ford @KFordRatings
14K Followers 470 Following 💻: CFB & CBB Power Ratings & Résumé Rankings 🎥+✍️: @TheLinesUS College Football Contributor 🎥: @Saturday_Glory’s Calculated Risk Pod 🎙️:@WeHateYourTeam_ PodTim Schultz @Tim1AP
734 Followers 3K Following President, @1APonline. Graduate of @KState & @GeorgetownLaw. Protecting the rights of people of all faiths while thinking way too much about youth baseball.SumerSports @SumerSports
15K Followers 158 Following Best-in-class quantitative analysis aimed at creating precision in player acquisition and roster management in the NFL. SumerSports Show Podcast.Steven Godfrey @38Godfrey
42K Followers 962 Following @splitzoneduo / @washingtonpost / @secretbase [email protected]ezrazuckermansivan.bs.. @ewzucker
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49K Followers 2K Following National college football reporter @TheAthletic. Stars matter. [email protected].Figen @TheFigen_
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6K Followers 178 Following Nonsequential quotes from ‘Blood Meridian or The Evening Redness in the West’ by Cormac McCarthy, 1985 // Header: “The Phantom Cart”, Salvador Dalí, 1933Bryan Curtis @bryancurtis
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29K Followers 1K Following Discerning luxury apparel, casual sportswear and innovative performance styles.Kate Mason @kvlmason
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11K Followers 710 Following Historian. 'Brother Gardeners', 'Founding Gardeners', ‘Invention of Nature' & ‘Magnificent Rebels’ … on Instagram @aswulf & @andreawulf.bsky.social@SethWalder This is from my college thesis replicating the work of @R_Thaler & @bcmassey. We found that the discount rate on future picks has been remarkably consistent over the years (135-136%) which aligns with the one round per-year rule. There’s clearly arbitrage opportunities here for…
@bcmassey @RufusPeabody @mixedknuts @canzhiye Appreciate the kind words Cade! I’ve learned a ton from you and @RufusPeabody, and your model was part of the inspiration for me to take on the challenge of modeling nfl outcomes
@SethWalder Descriptions of the paper @bcmassey and I wrote way back when usually point to the overvaluing of high first round picks, which is valid, but the biggest anomaly in our eyes was the discount rate on future picks. Over 100%! Yes, GMs have short contracts, but owners don't!
@canzhiye @RufusPeabody @BetTheProcess @bcmassey If you play motivational videos on the same computer that your model is training it’ll improve the error many don’t know this
I've been working on a new product: MakeDistribution.com! It's the best solution to creating a subjective probability distribution, i.e. one that reflects human judgement rather than being fit to data. Sounds simple, but most existing solutions have important flaws (1/15)
If you're looking for some #slow and thoughtful content about the draft, this conversation I had with @bcmassey on uncertainty last summer holds up quite well: youtube.com/watch?v=mIA-r6…
@statsowar @bcmassey Which position do you feel is best served by metrics and which do you think is least served by them?
NEW | Episode 10: Drafting Ain’t Easy This week @SethPartnow & @TheCoachEdwards are joined by special guest @bcmassey, to discuss the complexities involved in balancing advanced data & scouting reports in player evaluation for the #NFLDraft 🔽 buzzsprout.com/2317132/149542…
I created power ratings for my wife's recreational volleyball league. This is a cry for help.
Really excited about this week's @BetTheProcess that Jeff & I just recorded with my mentor @bcmassey discussing NFL draft decision-making and organizational decision-making in general. Lots of broader lessons from this one. Should drop tonight.
"I Was Trying to Describe You to Someone" by Richard Brautigan
it’s kinda crazy how little good art has been made about electricity, one of the most important things of all times
We suck at predicting talent development. We're not good at it. Accept that. Now, if that's the case, why wouldn't we want to keep more people in the pipeline to see how they develop? Too often, especially in youth sports, we talent ID too quickly. We're fooling ourselves.
@KevinColePFF @bcmassey @R_Thaler As a Ravens fan, I couldn’t be happier to have a GM with this mentality
Very interesting organizational decision making idea. I would love to see the data, in particular how much disagreement there is in an organization. To this, I would probably have everyone submit a measure of how much knowledge someone has about the decision. @bcmassey
Reed Hastings tried to split Netflix into 2 companies in 2011 (Qwikster for DVDs, Netflix for streaming) but customers hated it and Netflix backtracked. After the snafu, he made a new system: on future big decisions, the top 50-100 employees would rate an idea from -10 to 10.
Good article overall here that I'll highlight some stuff on. Featuring @ksmeers, @R_Thaler, @bcmassey and others theathletic.com/5416007/2024/0…
I'm excited to finally release my paper measuring religious worship attendance using cellphone data. I tweeted some early results from the paper several months ago. But you can now read the whole thing here: devingpope.com/assets/files/R…
If you have to move to North America and still want to have the same climate as back in the old country.
Just recalled an exchange with Daniel Kahneman.💔 Shane: "What is the most important trait for becoming a successful academic?" Danny: "The ability to exaggerate the importance of your research."
Worth reading or rereading: The Undoing Project, about Danny Kahneman and Amos Tversky, by the amazing Michael Lewis. It's astonishingly good, and hilarious, and quite moving. amazon.com/Undoing-Projec…