Spooky Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect
data(witch), pollster, blogger. Currently @SearchlightInst Has been described as "really compelling and helpful (and super depressing)" cauldronllc.substack.com Washington, DC Joined June 2014-
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a smart @robinsonmeyer read on how to build climate change policy amid our climate change politics nytimes.com/2026/09/14/opi…
@danielledeis is so smart and has spent her career thinking about climate change- which is why she is extremely qualified to tell you that an issue being *important* and an issue being *good at winning over voters* are different things. Climate is the first, not the second.
If the goal is to form a congressional supermajority that will actually advance these climate policies, then politicians must prioritize the issues that are actually salient to voters in states like Ohio and Texas. wordsinsearchlight.org/p/i-know-a-mis…
It's kind of wild that this is shaping up to be a Democratic enough year that "there's a cluster of states where Trump won by 13 points" is a complicating factor for a Senate forecast. At least for me, that's driving some of the high uncertainty here!
@jon_m_rob @besttrousers @danielledeis Don't think I haven't been staring at my spreadsheet with that in mind ever since I tuned this in!
@besttrousers @danielledeis The secret meta project is when they make us act this out like it's a series of football plays
Of course there's a lot of uncertainty- all these key senate seats are close, and a lot could happen- but the Trump/gas prices/war of it all is good news for Dems
I'm in the NYT today for the second edition of the midterm prediction project, being uncharacteristically optimistic (but seriously, I feel good about Iowa)
Somehow: Trump 🤝 Lina Kahn We already have regulatory power over AI and don't need new laws
After years of thinking and writing about why American governance is so clunky and slow, I wrote a book about how our well-intentioned laws have lots of unintended consequences. Why We Can’t Have Nice Things comes out Dec. 1 from Norton. Pre-order now! nicholasbagley.com
This is literally an argument against representative government itself. He's arguing for an autocracy of elites rather than a republic where a legislative body will inevitably have a range of backgrounds and expertise as they craft overarching policy. Beyond that, its not like members of Congress are food inspectors, FDA scientists, or doing enforcement at the SEC. This is just the dumbest possible excuse to not do anything as a Congress. Do your job as a legislator or get out.
Mike Johnson punts on oversight of AI companies: "Congress is obviously less qualified than the people who are pushing this frontier to know the ins and outs of it"
Yes I realize this is kind of a funny point to be making today of all days but it should drive home the sheer scale of event needed for the party of the president to gain House seats in a midterm year
Forecasting an R house at this point is utterly ridiculous. The party of the president has not successfully avoided losing House seats in a midterm since *2002*.
Net 2026 House Ratings by Organization: Quantitative Forecasts: Silver Bulletin: 🔵 +32 Split Ticket: 🔵 +27 VoteHub: 🔵 +26 Expert Ratings: Sabato's Crystal Ball: 🔵 +4 Cook Political Report: 🔴 +2 Inside Elections: 🔴 +5
Climate alarmism doesn't work
Climate-concerned voters find the phrase "climate crisis" demotivating; skeptics find it manipulative; and those in the middle just think it's wrong. via @robinsonmeyer @heatmap_news heatmap.news/daily/why-sayi…
Something I've learned about being too online in the last few years is that some people really truly cannot believe that other people might come to opinions about the world that are different from their own in a way that is natural and fair. Everything has to be an op. There are all sorts of people—mostly conservative but even tech critics like McNamee—who insist that this AI safety moment is a psyop. Have people's feelings about AI safety been shaped by a complex set of factors such as longstanding AI fears, worsening data center politics, the Hugging Face attack and its fallout, and now the Coxon resignation? No, no, no. They're victims of a psyop. It reminds me that I've had a distressingly high number of conversations with leftists who believe that the only reason America isn't a socialist paradise is that Fox News and other conservative media do something special and evil and conspiratorial to brainwash half the country. Look, I do not like Fox News. But I think Fox News is successful because it says what many people have already been thinking. It shapes public opinion at the margins, but mostly it reflects biases back to viewers rather than invent them out of whole cloth. There is a powerful, powerful urge to believe that the only reason the world doesn't agree with you about literally every little thing is that small handful of media-adjacent elites are constantly doing "ops" on the undiscerning public. I don't know, man. People's attitudes are different from yours and mine, because ... their lives are different. They accumulate different biases, different expectations, different values, different frameworks. Difference is normal, not an op.
The messaging on X related to HuggingFace, Coxon, etc. is so well coordinated, and so eerily similar to the behavior of bot swarms, that it is hard to escape the notion that the whole thing is an op.
Permitting reform is many things… an energy affordability policy, a prerequisite for reshoring manufacturing, etc. But as @JaneAFlegal and I write in @WSJopinion, a deal this Congress is also integral to the success of the next Dem admin.
Congress is close to a bipartisan permitting deal. Some Dems are hesitating, either bc they think it's unnecessary, or bc they want to wait til after the election for a weaker reform of enviro law — but both instincts are wrong. Do it now. @ppavnr & me: wsj.com/opinion/dems-s…
Congress is close to a bipartisan permitting deal. Some Dems are hesitating, either bc they think it's unnecessary, or bc they want to wait til after the election for a weaker reform of enviro law — but both instincts are wrong. Do it now. @ppavnr & me: wsj.com/opinion/dems-s…
This is, plainly, an insane posture to take. For purportedly always being about 5 minutes away from "throwing trans people under the bus," Democratic Party elites have certainly expended heavy sums on polling, message testing, and focus groups all on how to navigate a hostile environment for trans people without abandoning the community. No one's asking for brownie points on basic humanity, but it would be good to have acknowledgement of who the actual enemy here is.
Bit of a debate about this among transgender activists; Erin Reed, for example, has put Dem candidates with gender-critical statements on a list and argued "against voting for the worst offenders on this list even where it means a Republican takes the seat."
If this freaks you out (and it should), you should donate to the State and Local Election Alliance, preventing this is their whole goal.
Right-wing activists have taken control of a significant part of America’s local election apparatus—including in places with competitive contests that could determine control of Congress, @ToluseO writes: theatlantic.com/magazine/2026/…
Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias
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Rachel Bitecofer 🗽... @RachelBitecofer
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Jonathan Robinson @jon_m_rob
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Joey Politano 🏳️... @JosephPolitano
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Will Jordan @williamjordann
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@zachpruckowski where... @zachpruckowski
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Jack Gorsline @JackGorsline
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Digifold @digifold
529 Followers 5K Following Bureaucrat, video producer, former news anchor. I love beer, music, sports, tech, and jokes. Also tech jokes.
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660 Followers 1K Following Citizen. MENA Analyst on a Hill. Objectively speaking. Views expressed are my own. Abide no hatred. RT/Follows ≠ Endorsements.
CelticLad @celticlaad
936 Followers 3K Following Defend liberal democracy. 42 USC § 1983. YIMBY+urbanist🌆🔰🥑🚰🚴🏼♂️
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252 Followers 638 Following Ph.D. survey researcher Views my own. Democracy Amid Crises (OUP) Originally from Boston (Brockton).
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baron85 @baron854
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Freeze Peach Connoiss... @Satiricpaper
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fixcircle.bsky.social @FixCircle
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Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie
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A B @justa70skid
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Jamesetta Williams �... @jamesetta_w
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King Tower @King_Tower
557 Followers 2K Following Labor & Employment lawyer with Woods Rogers (but tweets are not intended as legal advice)
Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias
959K Followers 2K Following Slow Boring, cohosting https://t.co/wxUj3JGquN and The Argument pod. NYT contributing opinion writer.
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
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b-boy bouiebaisse @jbouie
383K Followers 1K Following My name is Jamelle Bouie. @nytopinion columnist. Co-host of @UnclearPod. Upgrade your grey matter, ‘cuz one day it may matter.
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524K Followers 14K Following Covering politics for @semafor. Alum: @washingtonpost, @business, @slate. [email protected]. Buy my book: https://t.co/6sWfZ4MNgH
Tom Bonier @tbonier
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59K Followers 2K Following Polling editor @CNN; keeping (cross)tabs on public opinion and the news. LA native, formerly @HuffPost. I like puns.
Taniel @Taniel
129K Followers 815 Following Daniel Nichanian. https://t.co/vIb1Tme7H9 Editor & founder of @BoltsMag. Local politics, criminal justice, voting rights.
G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris
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Lakshya Jain @lxeagle17
94K Followers 3K Following a machine learning/software engineer. also political data @TheArgumentMag, co-founder @SplitTicket_, and @cal alum. ✉️ [email protected]. i hate sports
Jonathan Robinson @jon_m_rob
7K Followers 6K Following Progressive empiricist. ex-@Catalist_US. R's Husband + J&D's Dad. @benj_robinson's twin. Pro-growth in the front, Donor advisor in the back. OH & MD guy.
Matthew Zeitlin @MattZeitlin
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Astead @AsteadWH
198K Followers 3K Following Host, America, Actually! @voxmedia Weekly midterms newsletter @Substack Editorial director @voxdotcom Political analyst @cnn Former @nytimes @bostonglobe
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29K Followers 4K Following policy, political economy, elections // 70-80s soul, 90s hip hop // #DubNation // proud product of miscegenation // Berkeley prof. formerly: UW, Princeton CSDP
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dylan matthews 🔸 @dylanmatt
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Michael McDonald @ElectProject
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John Kuk @john_s_kuk
855 Followers 1K Following Assistant professor @MSU_poli_sci. Political Scientist. Studying inequality, race, housing, and computational social science.
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Andrew Kaczynski @KFILE
388K Followers 12K Following CNN senior politics reporter Co-founder @TeamBeansFund - funding childhood cancer research in memory of my daughter. Signal: Akzn.24
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16K Followers 3K Following President @american_bridge, the opposition research super pac. Used to do campaigns. Oppo guy. Scrappy coder. College dropout. I like building and winning.
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Yo Shavit @yonashav
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Peter Hamby @PeterHamby
101K Followers 10K Following Chief National Correspondent @PuckNews. Snap + CNN alum. Board @ShorensteinCtr. Hoya. RVA homer. How Twitter changed politics: https://t.co/W6TOrCDXGQ
Henry White @HMBWhite
3K Followers 5K Following words etc. for @SearchlightInst . driven every single mile of I-40
David Byler @databyler
17K Followers 810 Following VP at NRG | Public opinion researcher | Former @washingtonpost political data journalist | Dad, people person, math person!
Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann
32K Followers 2K Following Director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University. I was hacked but have regained access. please ignore today's posts
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Alex Mechanick @apmechan
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Simon Bazelon @simon_bazelon
6K Followers 1K Following Lead author, DECIDING TO WIN (link below). Prev: Future Forward, Blue Rose Research, Data for Progress.
Christina Reynolds @creynoldsnc
43K Followers 5K Following Democrat. Proud EMILYs List/Obama/Hillary alum. Tar Heel. Marine brat. Feminist. Just waiting for the next basketball season. Opinions are mine. She/her/hers
lionel dripps @lioneldripps
459 Followers 908 Following The Lionel wing of the civic engagement community. Human and cat dad. Views my own (but RTs = endorsements).
Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyvs
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Searchlight Institute @SearchlightInst
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The Argument @TheArgumentMag
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Tim Shenk @Tim_Shenk
4K Followers 717 Following This is indeed a disturbing universe. https://t.co/XbtRzEqE59
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Josh Kalla @j_kalla
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Will Jordan @williamjordann
15K Followers 2K Following Dem pollster with Global Strategy Group. Bakersfield native.
Robert Griffin @rp_griffin
2K Followers 825 Following Associate Director of Research @DemocracyFund; Research Director for Voter Study Group; Previously @PRRIpoll @amprog Ed. committee @ps_polisci; Polisci PhD
Cartoons Hate Her! @CartoonsHateHer
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Galen Druke @galendruke
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David Broockman @dbroockman
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Everything Price Suff... @agraybee
48K Followers 541 Following Anarcho-Karenist. Alt-Centrism or barbarism. No pods, no casters
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