Josh Morgerman @iCyclone

Hardcore hurricane chaser. Mississippi transplant. Harvard man. Righteous Bay Rat. The #HurricaneMan. Jamaican name: Mawgaman! youtube.com/iCyclone Bay Saint Louis, Mississippi Joined October 2008

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Josh Morgerman @iCyclone

19 hours ago

@AdamLucioWX Lol. That's an ice-cream sundae with seven toppings on i.t

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Josh Morgerman @iCyclone

a day ago

@JDS5200 They didn't this time. Maybe in the future.

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AI models have been brought down to earth—just when everyone was getting worshippy about them. For days, physical models insisted #Typhoon #CHAMPI would hit Taiwan while Google DeepMind insisted it would cleanly miss. CHAMPI is now clobbering Taiwan. Ouchies for Google DeepMind.

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Josh Morgerman @iCyclone

a day ago

@ivandrago_42 @politixdude @japrice61 To @japrice61, who asked me a question and then blocked me: No one claimed the typhoon made landfall. You don't understand what's even being discussed. You can have a direct hit without landfall. See NHC glossary: nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.sht…. You're very welcome.

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Josh Morgerman @iCyclone

a day ago

@ivandrago_42 @politixdude @japrice61 Ah, I see. The problem is you don't understand the terminology. You don't understand the difference between the EYE and EYEWALL. These are *different* things. If you want to join in a discussion, it's important to understand the subject matter. ♥️

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Josh Morgerman @iCyclone

a day ago

@JordanHallWX But topography doesn't cause every typhoon near Taiwan to freak out. Many of them keep totally normal tracks. I've chased in that exact area (Su'ao) & had the typhoon move into the coast in a nice, straight line (DUJUAN 2015).

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Josh Morgerman @iCyclone

a day ago

@sofipine12 @EarthUncutTV The typhoon was *way* stronger when it passed near Guam. No one is suggesting otherwise. My point is that the Japanese islands experienced heavier impacts, because it passed closer to them (or actually over them), whereas it cleanly missed Guam.

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Josh Morgerman @iCyclone

2 days ago

#Tyhoon #CHAMPI is passing very close to #Japan's Yaeyama Islands. Wind reports so far are robust—stronger than was reported on Guam: Hateruma 56 knots gust 83; Iriomote-jima 50 knots gust 83; Ishigaki-jima 47 knots gust 85. @EarthUncutTV is on Ishigaki. Follow him.

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Josh Morgerman @iCyclone

a day ago

@blrisdd If the success criterion for a model is that they get the "general direction" of a track right, most models are right all the time.

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Josh Morgerman @iCyclone

a day ago

@politixdude @ivandrago_42 @japrice61 He clearly did not understand my post-- and he seems like a dummy-- but let's please not make fun of the learning disabled.

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Josh Morgerman @iCyclone

a day ago

@ivandrago_42 @japrice61 You didn't understand my post. 😂

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Josh Morgerman @iCyclone

2 days ago

@Sausius_wx Bingo. Exactly. That as the point I was trying to make. And I'm guilty of it, too. I started to just think: "Google DM is gonna right-- end of discussion." So this was, for me, a reality check.

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Josh Morgerman @iCyclone

2 days ago

@chaplin_joshua Yep-- it's exactly that! Thise mountains tear up cyclones.

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Josh Morgerman @iCyclone

2 days ago

Wow, #Taiwan really did a number on #Typhoon #CHAMPI. Lol. It's always that way. Putting a typhoon over Taiwan is like sticking it in a blender. Structural meltdown. #chopsuey

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Josh Morgerman @iCyclone

2 days ago

@Sausius_wx You might have missed the point of my post. It was this: Google DeepMind is not infallable. If you read anything else into it-- including arguments-- I can't help ya.

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Josh Morgerman @iCyclone

2 days ago

@Sausius_wx 1) I am not saying the physical models were right. I am saying Google DeepMind missed badly. 2) None of these details matter to residents in Yilan County. Physical models said it would hit; Google DeepMind said it would miss. It hit.

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Josh Morgerman @iCyclone

2 days ago

@hurricane_chase @PlaysSaheb 1) I am not saying the physical models were right. I am saying Google DeepMind missed badly. 2) None of these details matter to residents in Yilan County. Physical models said it would hit; Google DeepMind said it would miss. It hit.

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Josh Morgerman @iCyclone

2 days ago

@japrice61 That's debatable. Each agency shows a different track, and Taiwan radar show the eye partially onshore. EITHER WAY, it has directly impacted Taiwan, because the eyewall moved onshore.

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Josh Morgerman @iCyclone

2 days ago

@PlaysSaheb We can debate the fine points about how each depicted the impact, but he point is, the physical models showed a Taiwan impact & Google DM did not. To residents of Yilan County, that is all that matters.

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Josh Morgerman @iCyclone

2 days ago

Ishigaki-jima now 64 knots sustained.

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Josh Morgerman @iCyclone

2 days ago

Eye of #Typhoon #CHAMPI is nearing tiny island of Yonaguni (black). Inner eyewall brought sudden uptick of winds to 65 knots (10-min) gust 89. To E of center, Iriomote-jima (pink) had 66 knots gust 100. Further E, Ishigaki-jima (purple) had 61 knots gust 90. #Japan