Looks like time to start selling the rip. Even with this relaxation of tariffs, the combo of CHN + across the board 10% + sectoral tariffs is still a big drag ahead.
Unless you think tariffs are pretty much over, these moves are likely far too positive given what is coming.
This is an excellent article from @countdraghula on the growth problems facing Europe. Everyone is so focused on the high freq data that few take a step back and look at the bigger picture - something the author has nailed time and again.
open.substack.com/pub/macroisdea…?
@WaterworldCapi1 It's more than 25 v 50...entire reaction function shifted w/ yesterday's SEP.
Basically, you get 200 bps of cuts w/ a guarantee to get more if UE rate rises at all (above 4.4%).
Strong Fed put
less need for bonds (recession insurance) in the portfolio
of course, these moves…
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