Having failed to anticipate the steepest inflation in 40 years, you would think the economics discipline would be knee-deep in postmortems. Not yet. No surge of NBER studies comparable to the gusher of papers on pandemics in 2020. My column ... wsj.com/articles/on-in…
5/ This is not just semantics. By insisting on calling this `market fragmentation', the ECB signals to national leaders in the Eurozone that they can safely ignore what the bond market is telling them about their fiscal capacity.
The safest form of money you can own (Treasuries) is yielding 3% and you think that the stock market with a 6% earnings yield is a bargain during an economic slowdown with Central Banks as hawkish as they can be.
Got it.
1/15: Ever looked at an order book and been mesmerised by how it moves? Just me? A short thread about how displaying order books in a different way gives you a glance at what lies beneath.
Russian Central Bank Gov. Elvira Nabiullina tried to resign after the invasion of Ukraine, people familiar with the matter said. Her effort was rejected by Russian President Vladimir Putin. on.wsj.com/3qykKBU
''The Fed doesn't own enough long-end bonds to steepen the yield curve with QT sales''
A) The Fed owns $1.4 trillion 10y+ bonds
B) A $100 million sale of a 30y bond would be roughly equivalent to a $500 million sale of a 5-year bond
Duration risk matters for the private sector.
Powell just told you 50 bps in May is veeeery likely (now 61% chance priced in).
Next on the list: big mainstream media flashy headlines on “inverted yield curve”.
Powell just told you 50 bps in May is veeeery likely (now 61% chance priced in).
Next on the list: big mainstream media flashy headlines on “inverted yield curve”.
Markets now price 7.34 #Fed hike moves this year - a fresh record – after Powell said Fed will do whatever it takes to beat back #inflation at National Association for Business Economics Conference.
Recent events:
* Nasdaq=bear market
* Death cross for S&P 500
* BofA Global Fund Manager survey most cash since spring '20
* Consumer confidence lowest in 10 yrs
* Nickels worth more than dimes
* 40 year high in inflation
My take? There's a lot of bad stuff priced in right now.
Every moron: Russia is irrelevant, it’s hardly 2% of global GDP
True, measured with monkey money it is. Measured with real assets:
- 11% of global oil supply
- 17% of global NatGas supply
- 11% of global PM prod
- 11% of global Wheat prod
- 10% of global Ind Minerals prod
Interesting…..it’s not the post-war, western security system (Nato) that is meting out the most effective punishment to Russia, but the architecture of the global financial system that is pulverizing their economy.
A snapshot of the Russian economy: an investment expert goes live on air and says his current career trajectory is to work as "Santa Claus" and then drinks to the death of the stock market. With subtitles.
Last week I was willing to bet that we'd all become familiar with fund flow mechanics by the end of the year, but now we're all becoming armchair SWIFT & settlement experts.
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