Nod @nizzaneela
Cutter of chrysoprase The Mappin Terraces Joined October 2021-
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@arguablywrong @slatestarcodex It gets worse. As evidence against an earlier introduction, @slatestarcodex presents a doctored version of Fig. 3E from Pekar et al.'s "Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province", 2021.
I apologise and take it back, @tgof137 .
Apropos nothing, but something worth being reminded of. slatestarcodex.com/2015/12/24/how…
My short paper on severe ascertainment bias in Worobey is now out. The short talk linked at the end will play in .ppt if downloaded, but not in google docs. doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa…
Nate @Nate26728458
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17K Followers 588 Following perpetual denizen of the liminal / play, joy, light / writing / coding / games / AI / metaphysics [email protected]@gadboit @ban_epp_gofroc Yes. The point is that in the likelihoods we don't pick some subset of the paths on which we happen to have a convenient algorithm, calculate that precisely, and then dismiss all the other paths. You're proposing deviating from the general method used for each hypothesis.
@mbw61567742 @ban_epp_gofroc @lab_leak ... explained away with a similar line of reasoning. If it looks natural we can always say well they wanted to keep that bit natural. If it looks weird we can't say it's lab. It has to look specifically and justifiably lab weird.
@mbw61567742 @ban_epp_gofroc @lab_leak I have done something similar by arguing that although the FCS codons look to me more natural than lab, they might have inserted an FCS from a related virus. But it's important to tread very carefully here because anything pointing legitimately towards natural origin could be...
@gadboit @3corch3 in classical golden gate/no seem, you can put your stitching sites whereever your like, as the sites are not in the final product. for a DEFUSE like project, that would be not so practical. this video provides a lot of info on sticky end design: neb.com/en/tools-and-r…
@mbw61567742 @gadboit I admire your generosity. It took me too long to see how the phylogenetic reconstruction was used to launder the conclusion into the premises, so I am less inclined to be charitable.
I've rerated my 'trust' in Scott Alexander's opinions lower, based on: - his insane massive downgrading of lab leak hypothesis based on that one debate, showing his lack of quantitative wherewithal and statistical reasoning - his support of puberty blockers likely due to his…
@Magus_Janus Fewer words, more numbers and equations?
@MJnanostretch @mylcheng @emilyakopp deserves credit for conducting a professional journalistic investigation into COVID’s origins. Glad the AP is starting to pay attention but it’s notable they don’t mention DEFUSE. AP also fails to properly credit the journalists who filed FOIAs for info they quoted.
@loofymectin @MJnanostretch @mylcheng @emilyakopp Many! @emilyakopp @garyruskin @WhiteCoatWaste @JamesCTobias @JudicialWatch to name a few. Articles wouldn’t dare fail to cite the photographer who took a picture accompanying the article. It should be no different for those who obtained primary source docs.
@ellegist though curiously, Pliny the Elder tells a story about a boy who befriended a dolphin and it would let him ride on its back
@ggronvall @zeynep @alisonannyoung @kprather88 @NateSilver538 @joshrogin Thanks! 👍 Edward has never had any trouble getting hold of me but I’m sure he appreciates you have found your calling doing his admin.
Wild bee: just getting snack Me: no prob bee Mason bee: just make house Me: build a way b Honey bee:jus sampling the lavenders Me: you know I got an assortment Bumble bee: hey *bonk* I jus *bonk* I h Me: *holds flower still* Wasp: I'LL SEE U IN HELL Me: U TELL THEM WHO SENT U
@ggronvall @zeynep @alisonannyoung @kprather88 @natashaloder @NateSilver538 @joshrogin These authoritative words say it all: "There would have been no reason to hide a more closely related virus from the public prior to the pandemic, and it does not appear logical to conduct secret work on a divergent bat virus that seemingly had no relation to any human disease."
@gtuckerkellogg @MJnanostretch What do you think will be the result if it becomes routine for scientists to pitch preprints to media with overstated conclusions, only to scale them back after publication? It’s going to lead to massive credibility problems for the sciences.
When I reply reasonably to zealots, it often feels like trying to hold back the sea. But I don't think it's as futile as it feels. I think there are also lots of thoughtful people watching quietly. Or at any rate I hope so.
Are the people dunking on this unaware of Wikipedia's "verifiability, not truth" policy, which is what she's defending/advocating for here?
NPR's CEO believes that truth is subjective and the pursuit of truth can get in the way of getting things done. Aces.