everything has played out this year pretty much as expected, but the aus economy, at least for now, is pretty much topping out, or will do in the next few months.
whatever the slowdown looks like, it will be short lived, as the wealth effect will kick back in H2 2026
money and credit with another increase in august, ut we are now approaching the window where you would expect it to peak out and decline, maybe sharply into or at the start of 2026 (though we know it will quickly rebound again)
turns out total dwelling approvals is a pretty good coincident indicator with net worth.
since we know net worth has already bottomed at the end of last year and is likely to rise into 2026, we should see dwelling approvals make a similar move
pretty chart crimey, but with insolvencies looking to have topped out, the worst impact is likely to have been inflicted and should also start topping out by years end
wow, moonee valley has been an absolute shitshow tonight, i dont think anyone made money.
at least baraqiel snuck in for second to get a nice chunk back in the #manikato
regroup for tomorrow
chart crime for the day:
if you take the westpac leading index and get the 12 month moving average, it lines up pretty with the changes in net worth.
so if rates send assets higher (likely) we can assume the leading index goes higher
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