tilly @tillyinvests

I am interested in technology, markets and sports Joined August 2025

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@bubbleboi Agree that these businesses will look a lot different, but not that agents will have diminishing returns in the space. OAI’s Jalapeño tapeout in nine months was proof of concept as they used internal models interacting with legacy EDA.

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tilly @tillyinvests

2 weeks ago

$SNPS price action is interesting here…expecting gap up tmw similar to what we saw with $MDB today as mkt digests investor day

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tilly @tillyinvests

2 weeks ago

@bubbleboi Possibly get an idea for agentic monetization at $SNPS investor day tmw in addition to royalty biz ramp (which I think will only strengthen legacy EDA moat given proliferation of custom ASIC programs)

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tilly @tillyinvests

2 weeks ago

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tilly @tillyinvests

2 weeks ago

4/ last one for now and more research to do on it but what becomes the centralized storage platform for one’s personal context? It does not seem token efficient for agents to constantly query apps.

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tilly @tillyinvests

2 weeks ago

3/ will $DASH and $UBER see accelerated grocery penetration as agents better understand degree of saving with restaurant bundling? With this threat + Walmart and Amazon entering the space $CART short seems interesting

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tilly @tillyinvests

2 weeks ago

1/ a few early thoughts on some internet names 20 min into the pod: Businesses reliant on a lazy consumer will be obsolete. Immediately what comes to mind are subscription services, namely media. Will $NFLX become an aggregator of other streaming services?

Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag

2 weeks ago

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Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag

2 weeks ago

A list of surprising and mind-boggling stats from this conversation: - $1B+ a year in transaction volume (still invite only) - Growing 10%+ A DAY and has spent zero dollars on marketing - 40% of users shared a personal credit card with Instinct within 3 weeks - Compute demand is doubling roughly every week - At 5 to 8% daily growth over the months it takes to bring new compute online, Instinct would reach about 100 million users - On Instinct's own A/B tests, it matches Opus 5 performance at a fraction of the cost - Noah spends about 40% of his time on compute - Buying compute at the last minute costs 3 to 4x more - Background work runs on setups that are 3x, 5x and 8x more efficient on the same compute - 50% of Instinct's transaction volume is travel - Instinct plans to take a cut of what users buy (take rates, Shopify is~2.5-3%, Amazon ~15%, Apple 30%) - Noah's personal goal is to keep Instinct free for everyone for life - Some small businesses run their entire back office on Instinct - Users who connect at least one piece of sensitive information retain at about 80% - Some users send more than 90% of their messages to Instinct by voice - Say an app makes 70% of its money from ads and 30% from actually selling you things. Agents could wipe out the 70%, but Noah thinks the 30% gets much bigger, because people buy more when buying takes zero effort - Instinct launched to about 200 friends and family - Invites have sold on eBay for around $300 - More than 50% of Instinct's traffic doesn't run on iMessage - Instinct has proactively called Noah three times - The company is less than a year old - Raised $1B at a $10B valuation, less than a month after raising at $2.5B - Noah is 23

Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag

2 weeks ago

My conversation with Noah Shinn (@noahrshinn), founder of Instinct. Noah is building a personal AI assistant. It's still invite only, has spent nothing on marketing, and is growing roughly 10% A DAY. This is his first long conversation about the company. We discuss: - Why