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A rare PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) tornado watch has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for Western Oklahoma and Northwest Texas. Shown in the post is the latest radar composite for Oklahoma where storms can be seen developing. TT
A multi-day severe weather event is underway in the US. Here is a radar composite from Oklahoma where there is a line of thunderstorms with multiple severe thunderstorm warnings(blue polygons) and a tornado warning(red polygon) in effect. TT
As a multi-day severe weather event unfolds, hail over 3 inches and a strong tornado or two could be possible this evening across the W KS while large hail, severe winds and a few tornadoes are possible from NW TX to central OK. Shown is a simulated radar scenario from HRRR. TT
We are now entering the part of the week where we are expecting severe weather in parts of the USA during several days. Here is a 6 hour lightning density scenario from ECMWF for the coming days to illustrate the expected uptick in activity. TT
Shown is a simulated radar scenario from the HRRR model. Parts of Texas could see a few severe thunderstorms today with main concerns being large hail and strong winds. TT
Shown is a forecast of daily high temperatures across the continental USA today. Mostly dry conditions today, but be weather aware in the second half of the week in some parts of the country due to a possible severe weather risk. TT
Here is a breakdown of the cloud cover forecast scenario by the cloud height levels (total, low, medium and high clouds) as of 1 PM CDT on Monday according to the ECMWF model. The product is accessible from the navigation menu and is called "Cloud Layers". TT
Shown is a radar composite of the Southeastern US as storms are currently underway. Today there is a risk of severe thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic states to Florida. Primary concerns are damaging wind gusts and a isolated risk of a few tornadoes. TT
An outbreak of severe weather is anticipated this afternoon and evening with highest risk in the Ohio Valley region. The risk stretches down to the Gulf Coast. Shown is a Significant Tornado Parameter scenario from the 3 km NAM model. TT
There is a risk of severe weather in a wide area stretching from southern Plains to lower Missouri and Ohio Valley regions. Risks include tornadoes (some strong), destructive hail and damaging wind gusts. Shown is a simulated radar scenario according to HRRR model. TT
Shown is a 72 hour rainfall amount map from the NWS NDFD. Today, rain and storms are possible in the Eastern coast. Over the weekend the weather will become more disturbed in California amid a late-season atmospheric river. TT
There is a risk of excessive precipitation along a stalled front in the Southeast today, with flood watches in effect in parts of FL, GA, NC and VA. Shown is a 1 hour precipitation scenario from HRRR. TT
Today there is a risk of severe thunderstorms capable of causing damaging wind gusts in portions of Lower Michigan, Eastern Indiana and Western Ohio. Here is a simulated radar scenario from the HRRR model for the coming hours. TT
Winter weather continues in the Northern/Central Plains region into Upper Midwest while severe thunderstorms with a risk of tornadoes and damaging winds are possible from east Texas into Alabama. Shown is a simulated radar scenario from HRRR. TT
Here's an NWS forecast of precipitation through 12 UTC (8 AM EDT) tomorrow. A standard "slight risk" outlook has been issued by the SPC for Florida Keys and a small part of South Florida with concerns being wind gusts, isolated large hail and a tornado or two. TT
The SPC has issued a "marginal" risk outlook for parts of Texas and Louisiana for severe thunderstorms with main concerns being hail up to 1-1.5 inch and a few gusts which could reach severe levels. Shown is a radar composite from Texas. TT
Snow showers as well as gusty winds are possible in the Northeast, meanwhile showers and thunderstorms could be in store for the Southern Plains. Shown is a simulated radar scenario by precipitation type according to the HRRR model. TT
Considerably warmer today compared to yesterday in the Great Plains region, as some stations in Oklahoma are reporting air temperatures in 70s. Here is a forecast of today's high temperatures according to the NWS NDFD. TT
Severe weather risk today is in the southern parts of the country, from Texas across the Gulf Coast. The main concerns are hail and damaging winds. Shown is a radar composite from Texas at the moment. TT
Ryan Maue @RyanMaue
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15K Followers 891 Following Lately, but never all at once: airports, trucks, cars, coffee, autonomy, batteries, democracy, education 🇺🇲 🇩🇪 🇧🇷Hot weather again across Texas spreading north into OK, Arkansas and Missouri. 📈🌡 Record setting? Sadly, not close today. It's very difficult to set a daily record or monthly record in the Plains at the end of June primarily because Dust Bowl 1930s and 1980 are so high.
Comparison of RRFS-A and HRRR @weathermodels_ for snowfall (using internal model calculations, not 10:1) Quite similar in placement and amounts. RRFS is the planned replacement for HRRR in the coming year(s)
@weathermodels_ thank you for restoring so quickly :-)
🎅🎄If you like the maps that I've created over the years, then you can find them @weathermodels_ for about $11/month w/promotion. Users can upgrade to annual sub weathermodels.com The site has been up and fully operational now going into Year 6. 📈
Cooler, drier air is on the way south as a brief shot of relief for the Eastern US. Some locales in the Northeast are already ~20° cooler than yesterday. Fun fact: you can see the trough-ridge-trough pattern in this map through the temp changes, too! Via RTMA Analysis. MG
Severe weather is likely this afternoon and evening as an upper low rotates around the ridge. Damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes are all possible. Via the HRRR. MG
@weathermodels_ Great products and service! Could they be make available for Canada?
5-day average temperature anomaly from January 22-26 shows a lot of purple: 8°F to 12°F below normal including here in Atlanta. ECMWF EPS 12z (@weathermodels_)
@weathermodels_ Loops, mouse-overs, or postage stamps. Plenty of ways to quickly and efficiently digest weather map information. GFS 850 hPa Temperature anomaly: Hours 0 - 276 West Coast US
GFS is entirely free / open Maps @weathermodels_ even for real-time / updating forecasts. More than 400 regions / domains around the globe including the United States, Europe, and Asia. weathermodels.com/index.php?r=si…
@weathermodels_ The download all maps to one .png is awesome. See the entire forecast run in one panel. That's why the color-tables need to be smart/useful to allow your eyes to do pattern recognition.
Huge thank you to our loyal subscribers @weathermodels_ some are renewing for a 5th year. In that time, we built the most comprehensive and economically competitive weather mapping site. Of course, full suite access to Euro is important, but that's just scratching the surface.
Really like this 4 panel tool on @weathermodels_! Will be awesome once they add sharing options. 06z and 00z GEFS top panels, 00z GEPS and 00z EPS bottom panels!
I haven't done the calculations but I'm betting the amount of rainwater dumped on Louisiana by Hurricane Ida will exceed that of the entirety of California for the past year+ Heavy rainfall 10-20" over large area, then 3-6" all the way into New England during next several days
Not explicitly predicting that will happen with Hurricane Ida, but the Loiuisana coastal shelf is wider ~150 miles and very warm from surface to seafloor. 🌡 Can't count on coastal mixing to knock it down like countless other storms.
Harvey, Sally, Michael all continue intensifying right up to landfall while previous conventional wisdom was that cooler water from below would weaken an approaching storm. Harvey mixed the Texas Bight and it didn't matter b/c it was warm from surface to bottom.