Mo na @ziguratgo
Joined February 2018-
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The US gov't fiscal year ends Sept 30, and Polymarket traders (bettors?) indicate 74% odds of a government shutdown. Econ data doesn't get released in a shutdown, which would put the Friday jobs report at risk...
$TSLA Traders are piling into TSLA calls, especially the big $500 calls for 11/21/25, with millions in premium
Markets Detached From Economic Fundamentals zerohedge.com/markets/market…
BoA on equity CTA positioning: “Our model indicates that trend followers have stretched longs in S&P 500, NASDAQ-100, Russell 2000, and Nikkei 225 futures. Notably, these longs have steadily increased over the last month on continued declines in realized volatility. With trends…
Goldman: Volatility tends to be 25% higher in October. Since 1928, October SPX realized volatility has averaged 18 vol vs. 15 vol for other months. We believe high October volatility is more than just a coincidence. We believe it is a critical period for many investors and…
"It's helpful to look at the S&P compared to its 200-day moving average. The current number ... is at 10%, but that's not when we've seen local tops. We've generally seen local tops when this number is somewhere between 13% an 15% ... that would imply 6,950." @fundstrat
OpenAI expects its energy capacity will grow 125x in the next 8 years. It’ll consume more energy than India. Yet, the market is so focused on data center stocks that it completely ignores the energy. The real AI play is energy. $CEG $FLNC $NEE $ET $BEP $SEI
$APP Just connecting a few dots... Name is extremely overbought near term (thx to the SP500 inclusion). Could use a little rest here.
Big Tech valuations are certainly lofty, but we’re not back to the extremes of 2021. Today, the Nasdaq 100 trades at 31X forward earnings, compared w/39 times in 2021.
Wow, OpenAI is planning to use more energy than the UK or Germany in 5 years, and more than India in 8 years. That’s just one company. Can someone please explain how the UK and Germany will save the planet? Does it really make sense to sacrifice their industries and jobs?
Goldman Sachs on why you should be buying the dip 1. We have seen peak tariffs impacts. 2. Fiscal stimulates will be very front loaded. 3. Financial conditions are easing. 4. Rate cuts are coming. 5. AI is real.
Gold is now up 1206% since the year 2000. The S&P 500 has returned 629%. Silver joins the party, +753%
Goldman: "While the economy is not concerning (so far) and the US equity market at the highs, we like buying protection going into the fourth quarter as the market seems vulnerable to a pullback due to the strong outperformance since liberation day, how many cuts are priced in,…

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