stuart mcdonald @ActuaryByDay
MBE. Partner @LCP_Actuaries. Deputy Chair CMI. Chair @COVID19actuary. Own views. Life expectancy, mortality, health, pensions, insurance, inequalities, climate. covidactuaries.org/members/ London Joined June 2011-
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Here's the rates of alcohol-specific deaths in England by single year of age from 2001-2022. You don't need a magnifying glass to spot the pandemic's impact.
There's some amazing data hidden away in ONS's user requested data section. Last year they quietly published death data by age, deprivation decile and cause, which means we can look at age patterns in alcohol deaths by IMD, with sadly predictably grim results:
Age-standardised mortality rates year-to-date remain among the lowest seen (though last 3 weeks distorted by B/Hols). CMI analysis directly compares mortality rates each year - there is no baseline. Source: CMI Mortality Monitor; based on registrations actuaries.org.uk/system/files/f…
This extraordinary chart shows runaway growth in "deferred" pension pots that people have stopped paying into, usually when changing jobs. It's a clear indication of why my colleague @stevewebb1's "magnetic pensions" solution is an idea whose time has come on.ft.com/4a13zx7
Government warned it must 'urgently' address rise in small pots incm.pub/3JoVIyf
Why shouldn’t pension schemes follow a worker when they change their employer, asks @stevewebb1. on.ft.com/4d1OJJf
Already the case that one in ten people of working age is receiving a health related benefit. These are remarkable numbers. And they are rising. The number of new awards each month has more than doubled since 2019.
Already the case that one in ten people of working age is receiving a health related benefit. These are remarkable numbers. And they are rising. The number of new awards each month has more than doubled since 2019.
Meaghan Kall @kallmemeg
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Day two is shaping up to be a good 'un with @virginmedia
Community noted, with extensive links debunking this nonsense.
🚨🌎 “A Leading Cardiologist compared this to the Holocaust - I think it’s going to be worse than than that” Covid Vaccine Deaths by Member of UK Parliament Listen to British MP Andrew Bridgen Estimates vary thus far as to total number of people that have died either…
@HugoGye So more above inflation increases for a relatively well off (in aggregate) generation, paid for by those struggling to get on the housing ladder, paying off student loans, etc etc. Generational inequity at its finest.
@KoudijsHenk @JohnPorteous4 @VictimOfMaths @ActuaryByDay Actually Sweden saw a small excess in alcohol deaths but nothing like UK.
@VicVijayakumar That just leads to more kids and less time. Focus on the sourdough.
@ActuaryByDay The ratios CVD/cancer and CVD/all also vary widely among countries with LE ~75 (similar to Western countries in the 80s). Wither further LE increases there, we may have CVD/cancer<1 in much of Latin America, but not MENA or Eastern Europe. x.com/karlpettersso1…
@jarlebreivik @ThanksCancer With some degree of variation between populations.
On this claim that deaths occurrence show increased cancer deaths in England+Wales I forgot that ONS released weekly occurrences up to Nov '23 by COD & age band so the data is complete up to (at least) end '22 Result? No signal beyond the usual: Displacement, winter bugs, noise
Apparently, someone "found" a high increase in cancer in 2022 among 15-44 by applying the average "upping" factor to death registrations to get death occurrences The snag: 80% of the upping in that age band is due external causes and the actual upping to apply for cancer is tiny
@redandwhite1874 @JohnPorteous4 @ActuaryByDay Indeed it is, but any discussion about whether it was the right or wrong thing absolutely has to engage with what the harms of the alternatives might have looked like otherwise it is meaningless.
Delighted to be at #RCPMed24 speaking on a panel on health inequalities. Report from @HealthFdn projecting widening of disparities projected in 2040 We need significant investment in prevention are care to allow NHS to cope @Ann__Raymond @RCPhysicians
This is extremely charming. I'm not sure I've seen this before.
'I've got my lines!' After answering, 'I don't know', to a caller's question on voter IDs, Shadow Minister Darren Jones receives a text from Labour to clarify the party's position.
@ONS Thanks for this. Can I just check that it's just a coincidence that the numbers with day-to-day activities affected, and 'limited a lot' are exactly the same as in the March 2023 release? 1.5m and 381,000 appear in both. With different proportions, obviously. Is this right?
@ActuaryByDay @kallmemeg Oh, for the simpler life of an actuary 😜
NEW ANALYSIS ⛰️🔥Fossil fuels fell to a record-low 2.4% share of British electricity, for 1hr, earlier this month 📉Until 2022, it'd never been below 5% 📊Record 75 half hrs below 5% in 2024ytd 🎯Grid manager NGESO says its on track for 0% next yr 1/ carbonbrief.org/analysis-fossi…
Back on deck at @FT HQ in London after a 4-week sabbatical. My inbox has re-opened! #pensions #globalinvesting #assetowners
Sharing this as a reminder that we need to keep monitoring the long-term impact of policies after most people have forgotten and moved on. For me not about blame but learning and doing better in future.
'Looking back I think we failed our children during the pandemic.' @susannareid100 School closures during the pandemic mean poorer GCSE results for pupils in England well into the 2030s.
@paulfrewDUP @ActuaryByDay @NISRA Something can be a fact, but a very flawed measure (as Stuart pointed out each week). Surely the introduction of a measure that addresses those flaws and has been put together by a combination of apolitical statistical and mortality experts should be welcomed and used?
This is a good question. Why have heat pumps become a bit of a contentious topic in the UK? I'm late to it, but wanted to have a proper go at answering it... 🧵
I'm proper fascinated by how the general vibes around heatpumps in Britain became so negative (at worst) or indifferent (at best). I am hugely sceptical of the top answer I've been given (right wing media bias and an anti-expert society) by most people I've asked about it.