RationalExuberance @AlexDemache

New York, NY Joined December 2013

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Ed Bradford @Fullcarry

2 days ago

Front-end pressure continues with supply this week (2s, 5s and 7s) but '25 rate cuts holding up with market pricing another 44 bps of cuts for the remainder of the year. 2s look attractive

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FinancialJuice @financialjuice

a day ago

Fed's Powell: Towards next meeting will look at labor market, growth data, inflation data to ask if policy in right place. If policy is not in right place, we'll move it there.

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FinancialJuice @financialjuice

a day ago

Fed's Powell - Economic Outlook Full Speech federalreserve.gov/newsevents/spe…

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FinancialJuice @financialjuice

a day ago

WATCH LIVE: Fed's Powell Speaks on Economic Outlook 12:35 ET youtu.be/T1WKEQas0pw?si…

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#Fed Vice Chair Bowman favoring easier policy & a more forward-looking perspective: "...appropriate to begin the process of moving policy toward a more neutral stance at this meeting" Contrast with a likely majority of policymakers that remain extremely data-dependent

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Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1

2 days ago

Gold prices have surged 44% so far this year, the biggest annual gain since 1979. Not only are investors seeing it as a haven amid inflation concerns, but central banks are increasingly diversifying into gold, led by China. The move has accelerated in the past week post-Fed.

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Ed Bradford @Fullcarry

3 days ago

Last cycle EFFR started it's craziness once Bank Reserves fell below 8% of NGDP

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FinancialJuice @financialjuice

2 days ago

Fed's Miran's Speech on nonmonetary forces and appropriate monetary policy federalreserve.gov/newsevents/spe…

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Ed Bradford @Fullcarry

6 days ago

Looking like a difficult year-end for funding UST collateral. Overnight SOFR expected to exceed Fed funds by 7 bps on average in Nov and similar pattern going forward. No reprieve either with TGA rebuilding and Fed balance sheet slowly shrinking.

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Ed Bradford @Fullcarry

3 days ago

Quiet supply week for USTs so I thought it might be useful to update my Fed balance sheet chart now that TGA is almost refilled and RRP drained. Bank reserves are down to 10% (ish) of NGDP and probably still have room to go lower before EFFR elevates.

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The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

4 days ago

Moody's on a US recession: The probability of a recession within the next 12 months jumped to 48% in August, the highest since the 2020 pandemic. This is according to Moody’s Analytics’ leading economic indicator, which uses extensive economic data and a machine learning model.…

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Ed Bradford @Fullcarry

a week ago

Post-cut, belly continues to sell-off and 2s5s30s 'fly highest level since July

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Ed Bradford @Fullcarry

a week ago

@TheStalwart It's probably a non-voter no change rather than hike

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Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart

a week ago

When we had Kansas City Fed President Schmid on Odd Lots a few weeks ago, he said that the FOMC shouldn't rule out the possibility that conditions currently warrant higher interest rates. Wonder if he's that top dot for 2025.

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Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos

a week ago

@sidprabhu Hammack was quite hawkish in the intermeeting period, isn’t a voter, and the Cleveland Fed didn’t ask for a discount rate cut.

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Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos

a week ago

@sidprabhu Nonvoters can do a soft dissent by saying appropriate policy is no cut. Look at Sept 2019. Two voters dissented and three other nonvoters were at an effective “hike” after the cut by not putting their dot at the rate level that would’ve followed the cut.

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Ed Bradford @Fullcarry

a week ago

TGA rebuild and the continuing low-key Fed balance sheet runoff pushing overnight liquidity to cycle lows and pressuring overnight rates. It will be a relatively treacherous year-end but hopefully nothing like 2019. SRF and Fed awareness should help

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research @RenMacLLC

2 weeks ago

Core goods CPI less cars rose just 0.13% in August, or 1.6% SAAR, the weakest pace in several months. This lends support to the notion that tariffs largely are a one-time shock to the price level. Less pressure in August from household furnishings and recreation commodities.

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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal

2 weeks ago

Inflation came in hot. You can see tariffs are driving the price of goods higher, while the price of non-housing services isn't falling to compensate. Shelter had a high month as well, but that is likely noise given their more general downward trend. The tariffs are here. /1

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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal

2 weeks ago

Meanwhile inflation is broadening. Here's percent of items that had at least a 3 percent (annualized) price increase over the last month, something Waller used to flag the 2023 disinflation. I brushed this off and am surprised at its increase. ~60% for both core and overall. /3