Brian Gierke @BrianGierke
Head of @Interest_Rates and FX Marketing at CME Group. Views are my own. No investment advice given or intended. linkedin.com/in/brian-gierke Chicago, IL Joined January 2013-
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With PCE ahead of expectations, the focus shifts to the #Fed and jobs this week in Rates: Mon: T-Bill auctions ($140B), German Inflation Tue: 42-Day Bill auction ($65B), EU GDP Wed: JOLTS, #FOMC (no chg expected) Thu: Challenger Job Cuts Report Fri: Non Farm Payrolls
#FedWatch: Markets are now pricing just one rate cut in 2024, while the probability of no cuts this year has risen to 18%, up from 12% a day ago.
That feeling when someone asks your view of the market and you're like: "Yeah I'm feeling pretty bullish on multifactor dynamic risk premia trading, with judicious application of the Kelly criterion, via super capital efficient futures markets"
The fact that "long and variable lags" are now not so long, and perhaps more variable than in the past is not lost on the Fed. Forward Guidance can influence expectations of the future path of policy, thereby effecting financial conditions long before an actual change in policy…
🚨 Credit futures coming June 17 Pending regulatory review, CME Group will list 3 contracts: -Investment Grade (IQB) -High Yield (HYB) -Duration-hedged (DHB) -- Trade the credit component only See the details in the just-released SER: spr.ly/6018bYBx4
New details announced for CME Credit futures, launching June 17.
New details announced for CME Credit futures, launching June 17.
Another round of record sized 2Y and 5Y auctions inbound.
Another round of record sized 2Y and 5Y auctions inbound.
As expectations for rate cuts fade, the yield curve beyond 1-Yr has seen sharp moves higher in the past two weeks: · 2-Yr: +27bps · 5-Yr: +34bps · 10-Yr: +31bps
Open interest in 3Y futures +2X in last 30 days
Since hitting a 2-year low on March 27, #Treasury volatility has jumped 50 bps and is now approaching 6-month highs.
Another record volume day for Monday-expiring options as the return of Treasury volatility puts a premium on managing weekend risk.
Auctions and international #inflation reports highlight the week ahead in Rates: Mon: T-Bill auctions ($140B), Retail Sales Tues: Canada Inflation, more T-Bill auctions ($111B) Wed: 20-Yr Bond reopening ($13B), UK Inflation Thurs: 5-Yr TIPS auction ($23B) Fri: Japan Inflation
Golden words from @KansasCityFed's Schmid on the Balance Sheet: "...our current pace of balance sheet reduction is not creating strains in funding markets... If runoff began to unexpectedly stress funding markets...SRF would be available to prevent a significant increase in…
Golden words from @KansasCityFed's Schmid on the Balance Sheet: "...our current pace of balance sheet reduction is not creating strains in funding markets... If runoff began to unexpectedly stress funding markets...SRF would be available to prevent a significant increase in…
#FedWatch: Markets are now pricing a 12% probability of ZERO rate cuts in 2024.
🇺🇸Weak, but not disastrous, 30y UST auction. Investors stay wary about duration despite softer PPI data. LT UST still unattractive. -HY 4.671%, 1bps tail, highest since Nov -Btc 2.37 in line with the 6-auct avg -PDs take 17.3%, highest since Nov -Indirect 64.4% lowest since Nov
Treasury volatility sees largest one-day gain since October, as yields surge amidst hot CPI and a weak 10Y auction.
Ugly 10y auction. 3.1bps tail. Dealers taking 24%, despite the sell-off going in, and the fact NFP, CPI all behind us. Have not seen an auction rejected like this in a while!
Ed Bradford @Fullcarry
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CUT? Really?
WILL THE FED CUT RATES? FOMC is this Wednesday. Will they hold or cut rates? Listen in live on Wednesday, here: x.com/i/spaces/1zkjz…
@BrianGierke @SemperVigilant1 Swing by the brewery I got some stuff you will like
@BrianGierke This is better than the Spotted Cow.
⚪️ Main events in the week ahead for financial markets.
“Why should we listen to a fighter about trading?” Never said you should. I share my thoughts and bet real money. Thats it! Here to discuss, learn, connect with fellow traders. I love the game, work hard behind the scenes, but have never claimed to be more than a retail guy 🤷♂️
Heck yes, brother. So much wisdom in this account.
Notes to self: I think about this section of scripture a lot 1 Corinthians 9:25–27 Everyone who competes in the games exercises self-control in all things. They then do it to receive a perishable wreath, but we an imperishable. 26 Therefore I run in such a way, as not…
#FedWatch: Markets are now pricing just one rate cut in 2024, while the probability of no cuts this year has risen to 18%, up from 12% a day ago.
Today is my last day at @WSJ. I’m joining Yardeni Research as their chief markets strategist, working for Ed Yardeni. Grateful to have worked with truly exceptional colleagues at the Journal. I’m excited to join Yardeni soon; you can reach me at [email protected]
That feeling when someone asks your view of the market and you're like: "Yeah I'm feeling pretty bullish on multifactor dynamic risk premia trading, with judicious application of the Kelly criterion, via super capital efficient futures markets"
On $JPY - the problem with intervention is that once the genie is out of the bottle… it’s hard to put it back in. We’re at a stage where MoF/BoJ have no choice but to intervene. The best way would be for BoJ to hike 25bps this week. It’s not about the macro anymore (BoJ…
Holy shit we just we just won a silver medal in the world beer cup @tonalitybeers For a Belgian style dubbel
It used to be a regular question: "What's the lowest strike call I can buy for 0.25 on the near euro$ contract?" Yest, someone paid 0.25 for 30k SFRK4 9675c. That's over 200 bps away with 15 dte (SFRM4 settled 9473.5). Might as well be on a euro$ because it's a fantasy trade.…
🕹️ When you randomly press all the buttons on the joystick…
@BrianGierke @CMEGroup great, how did i miss this... we will look into adding into our trading stuff... will DM... prob makes sense to have a quick call
The fact that "long and variable lags" are now not so long, and perhaps more variable than in the past is not lost on the Fed. Forward Guidance can influence expectations of the future path of policy, thereby effecting financial conditions long before an actual change in policy…
Morgan Freeman is awesome
Morgan Freeman: "I'm a huge fan of Elon Musk. I think he's got the most incredibly forward-thinking ideas about where we can go technologically. What he's done, nobody else has ever done." @morgan_freeman @elonmusk
🚨 Credit futures coming June 17 Pending regulatory review, CME Group will list 3 contracts: -Investment Grade (IQB) -High Yield (HYB) -Duration-hedged (DHB) -- Trade the credit component only See the details in the just-released SER: spr.ly/6018bYBx4
Trends for United States
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