Edward Bolingbroke @EddBolingbroke
Bloomberg @markets rates coverage. My opinions. bloomberg.com/authors/AS7t6j… New York, NY Joined March 2020-
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Update: Open interest +130k in Dec25 futures 😲 No stop-out, just a massive lump-on in risk😩😩
Update: Open interest +130k in Dec25 futures 😲 No stop-out, just a massive lump-on in risk😩😩
Whoosh. There goes SOFR Dec24/Dec25 spreads. Smacks of stop-outs as Fed cuts get kicked further out Volumes today 190k, more than 2x any other day 😮💨😮💨
Quick check-in: (caveat: this might be a hedge)
Quick check-in: (caveat: this might be a hedge) https://t.co/fbf2JXicH7
Someone today placed a record size trade in SOFR futures one day before CPI…baller move 🔥👇
Today’s CFTC data shows asset managers continuing deleveraging in Treasury futures. This week saw a net long chop of 183,000 10-year note futures equivalents 🤔🤔
Hedge funds have covered net duration short by 850,000 10-year note futures equivalents over the past five-weeks ($57 million/basis point in cash risk)🔥 …hedge funds are de-leveraging 💀 Positioning @CFTC👇
JPMorgan’s Treasury client positioning survey is starting to look STRETCHED: ▫️Net longs lowest since April 2023 ▫️Neutrals most since Sept. 2011 ▫️Outright long lowest since Feb. 2023 ▫️Outright short lowest since 2012
Flows over the past week in Treasury options have seen massive demand for protection on higher 10-year yields, back through 4.5% in a just weeks Traders are bracing for another bond market selloff...
After last weeks hot CPI data, asset managers covered long positions by the biggest amount since March 2022 = Net selling of almost 260,000 10-year note futures equivalent 🏋️🏋️ Latest @CFTC positioning shifts ⬇️
Something afoot in Treasury options today. Motivated buyer of April puts, targeting 10-year yields to climb back toward 4.5% 🚀 These expire 2 days after March 20 Fed meeting 🤔⬇️
JPMorgan Treasury clients are LEAST short in over 10 years! Where have all the bond shorts gone?
RATES POSITIONING Hedge funds bail on SOFR longs after strong data week (inc. payrolls) and Fed ⬇️ @CFTC 🤝
For the first time in a while, past few days has seen some significant SOFR option unwinds, as traders bail on plays targeting a March Fed cut, where odds of 25bp easing have slipped to just 20%…
Three charts sum up yesterday’s action in SOFR futures. Covering shorts in early bank-fear stampede, liquidating longs on Powell. Pure panic 💀
Powell on March cut: "that's probably not most the likely or what we would call the base case." Cut premium priced into March OIS going, going....
Open interest changes in Week 2 TY options (Friday expiry) since start of the year shows traders are firmly hedging higher yields now Left this week: CPI, PPI, 10s and 30s supply
🚨 Dollar swap spreads on the move again today, following weekend comments from Fed's Logan on potential for early QT slowing. Similar moves seen last week post- Fed minutes SOFR spreads 🔥🔥
Hedge funds net long in SOFR futures cut for third week in row, data up to Jan. 2 shows a latest chop of $3.5m/DV01. Peak pricing of rate cuts departed...? 🚂 Positioning latest ⬇️ @CFTC 🤝
Bunch of action in the TY weekly options today targeting Treasury yields 🆙 ➡️Week 1 exp. Friday (NFP play) and the ➡️Week 2’s n/ Friday (+ CPI, auctions) One play targeting 4.15% 10-Year by Friday close 🫰 Hawt payrolls hedging 😤🔥🔥🔥 @TheTerminal got some deets ⬇️
Open interest has dropped in 10 of past 12 sessions in US 2-year note futures‼️ …calling last orders on front-end Treasury shorts🍻💀🪦
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Jerome Powell when he finally announces his first rate cut
every tick Z4 moves is equivalent to PnL worth 2 median 3 bedroom homes
A “quiet bull structure” on Treasury options that was recommended Citigroup is a big win so far for anyone who took the bet trib.al/qjQ6vs6
@EddBolingbroke Hey Ed, this cretin is impersonating you. I have reported it.
STIR futures and options are a weird market but if you really want to visit them here’s who you wanna follow: @PntOptions @SirOfFinance @EddBolingbroke @686Prism (because the best way to understand a topic is to shitpost about it) Probably missing a few but these guys are a…
@EddBolingbroke @BlacklionCTA see the most actives tab here @BlacklionCTA cmegroup.com/tools-informat…
Always one of my favorite charts...
For the first time in a while, past few days has seen some significant SOFR option unwinds, as traders bail on plays targeting a March Fed cut, where odds of 25bp easing have slipped to just 20%…
Seeing it this week in rates again
The exacerbated moves due to overzealous positioning/herding from to systematic players etc are pushing prices to levels that make everyone constantly question their own positioning and narratives
Big thanks to @kevinmuir and @TheMarketHuddle crew for having me on. Apologies for my rambling, hopefully there are some gems amid the turds I dropped but either way, I had fun!
This week @PatrickCeresna and @kevinmuir welcome bond portfolio wizz, Efficient Market Hype @EffMktHype. Kev and Efficient have a long-form discussion about interest rates, differences between hard and soft data, and why he see’s a violently rangebound market ahead in 2024
The composition of open interest in Treasury futures has seen a notable shift in the last month, with strong inflows across longer-dated contracts, led by 30Y (US), countering compressed positions at the front-end, primarily 2Y (TU).
A massive bearish options trade is betting on a Treasury rout after Friday's jobs data — targeting the 10-year at 4.15% bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
first board of the year. Rates the big movers with ultras 7 ticks shy of 2 handle range day
Men’s hairlines after working in investment banking for 3 years
Open-interest data shows positions continue to be added across long-end of the curve while traders have been aggressively cutting risk in the front-end since the start of the
@EddBolingbroke Bro - you gotta announce the new profile pic lol. Sitting here saying out loud “who the fuck is this” 😂
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