Analytic @Analytic_Trader

The numbers tell the story. Numbers - Process - Clarity. Not financial advice. Applied statistical methods for gaining clarity into the financial markets. discord.gg/JjGF6ApJjQ Joined September 2016

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Analytic @Analytic_Trader

2 weeks ago

Added the following to the market context metric: -SPX Market Valuation -Margin Debt -U.S. Household Debt The Market Context is quite negative but markets need a "wall of worry" to climb (Bear Short Squeeze fueled momentum rally). #Market #Condition #Model #Metrics #SPX…

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Analytic @Analytic_Trader

2 weeks ago

Market Metrics Update: 9-12-25 MCMV4 Index: 26.15% (25% Long) Industry Benchmark: 73.89% (75% Long) Market Drivers -> Market Cycle 25% Long , 75% Cash. I'm expecting a big pullback after the OPEX. MCMV4 model is saying there is about a 25% chance of a momentum breakout…

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Analytic @Analytic_Trader

3 weeks ago

Market Condition Model Version 4 Dashboard: 1) Industry Standard Benchmark: 72.64% Aggressive Long [75% Long] 2) MCMV4 Index: 14.70% Conservative Long [25% Long] #Market #Condition #Model #MCMV4 #Macro #Trading #Investing #SPX #NDX #BTC #ETFs

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Analytic @Analytic_Trader

3 weeks ago

Geopolitical and Macro Causal Flows for Major Assets: Critical thinking is a major part of successful investing and trading. The Geopolitical picture gives way to the Macro picture which influences global markets. The Middle East is a major global energy and financial hub. It…

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Analytic @Analytic_Trader

a month ago

Tom Lee: A V bottom recovery is the most common for the SPX. #TomLee #SPX #BTXC #Prediction #Marker #Recovery #TomLee #SPX #Recovery #Market

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Analytic @Analytic_Trader

a month ago

Two Critical Macro Flows for determining the Market Condition: [Inflation] 1) PPI -> Consumer Inflation Expectations -> FOMC Meeting Minutes -> Fed Chair Jackson Hole Speech -> CPI Cycle -> CPI -> FOMC Rate Decision [Job Market] JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover…

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Analytic @Analytic_Trader

a month ago

PPI -> Consumer Inflation Expectations Estimate -> FOMC July Minutes -> Powell Jackson Hole Speech -> CPI Cycle -> CPI -> Sept FOMC Rate Decision The July 2025 FOMC minutes indicated a moderate probability—estimated at 60–75 percent—of a dovish speech by Chair Jerome Powell at…

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Analytic @Analytic_Trader

a month ago

Market Metrics Update: 8-15-25 The Basic Market Benchmark is very positive however the MCM V4 model is saying the market has a lot of weakness. #Market #Condition #Metrics #Model #SPX #BTC

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Analytic @Analytic_Trader

a month ago

Market Condition Model V4: A First look. Purpose: To maximize Alpha while minimizing Risk by ranking critical market metrics and then adjusting the portfolio asset composition and position size to reflect the current market risk. Methodology: - Macro Quantamental…

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Analytic @Analytic_Trader

a month ago

PPI → Consumer Inflation Expectations Estimate → FOMC July Minutes → CPI Cycle → CPI → Sept FOMC Rate Decision PPI, Inflation Expectations: Early Warning Indicators FOMC Minutes: Context CPI Cycle: Timing estimate for risk mitigation CPI: Confirming indicator, Critical…

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Analytic @Analytic_Trader

2 months ago

I have been saying for a while now that retail day trading has a medium and long term negative expectancy. You may get lucky in the short term but you need to realize that all you are doing is making reactive decisions based on slow and lagging indicators using overfitted…

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Analytic @Analytic_Trader

2 months ago

Higher than expected PPI dropped the market earlier today. X*PPI -> CPI, PPI is the driver for CPI but Inflation Expectations will tell us what the expected factor multiplier X is. This is a bit of an oversimplification of course: The Role of a Multiplier (X): The notion…