BankSynthesis @BankSynthesis

Navigating complex, interconnected markets views=mine, RT≠myviews Washington DC Joined August 2011

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Danielle DiMartino Booth @DiMartinoBooth

10 hours ago

…nearly 1/2 August’s 0.4% MoM real spending increase came from “Computer software & accessories”which saw 8.0% MoM spike, 3rd largest on record. Net this gain & real PCE’s adjusted 0.2% MoM increase marks a slowdown from June & July’s respective 0.3% & 0.4% prints #DailyFeather

Charlie Bilello @charliebilello

22 hours ago

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EndGame Macro @onechancefreedm

a day ago

What makes this number stand out isn’t just the September drop of 32k jobs, but also the fact that August got revised from a gain of 52k to basically flat at -3k. Put those together and you’ve got two months of real weakness in a row, something you almost never see outside of…

Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv

a day ago

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KKGB @INArteCarloDoss

a day ago

To be clear, this is the second, not the 1st, negative print for private jobs. Last month was revised down to -1 K. Now, the interesting part is that ADP and NFP have been correlating pretty tightly at 3m average.

KKGB @INArteCarloDoss

a day ago

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Jeff Feldman @JeffFeldman_

a day ago

Oh great, who needs those!

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Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo

a day ago

Air Traffic Controllers to Work Without Pay in DOT Shutdown Plan bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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Danielle DiMartino Booth @DiMartinoBooth

2 days ago

Creeping up, and critically so against the backdrop of the worst hiring freeze in the postwar era.

MacroEdge @MacroEdgeRes

2 days ago

Creeping up, and critically so against the backdrop of the worst hiring freeze in the postwar era.

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Lawrence McDonald @Convertbond

a day ago

Private credit - Other people's money. Pay attention to the next Lehman. $ 1.5 T lending, $500B of bad loans.

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EndGame Macro @onechancefreedm

a day ago

@HyperbolicDisco @TotemMacro That’s the trick of this cycle, things look stronger on the surface than they really are. XLF and low quality financials are rallying mostly on flows and rotation, not because credit is actually healthy. Defaults look low because companies locked in cheap debt years ago, but…

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EndGame Macro @onechancefreedm

2 days ago

What you’re seeing is a sharp divergence between listed private credit proxies (a Blackstone BDC and Blue Owl’s stock) and the S&P 500. The index is levitating on mega cap tech momentum and easing policy hopes, but private credit is pricing a very different cycle with tighter…

zerohedge @zerohedge

2 days ago

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Richard Christopher Whalen @rcwhalen

a day ago

Charitable endowments, especially colleges, are forced to sell their Private Equity LP stakes at steep discounts @markets

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Chand Sooran @csooran

2 days ago

Canaries in the private credit coal mine?

Cluseau Investments @blondesnmoney

2 days ago

Canaries in the private credit coal mine?

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Lawrence McDonald @Convertbond

2 days ago

Business Development Companies BDC’s Private Credit - the slime show is oozing to the surface. Borrower “First Brands” used a Lehman like Repo 105 move to hide leverage and screw investors. Two size frauds in the last 10 days, stay tuned! youtu.be/EPl4v_PjqhA?si…

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Alessio @AlessioTMAD

2 days ago

GBR @GayBearRes

2 days ago

@JeffFeldman_ Where should I start… 1. Tight Credit Spreads could also reflect excessive risk-taking and mispricing of risk 2. Aggressive Lending could easily be a chase of yield rather than belief in fundamentals 3. Credit spreads have a nasty habit of lagging Follow the cash flow.

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Paulo Macro @PauloMacro

2 days ago

The circle to dotcom is now complete. Behold contortional gems to make the case that GPUs are not consistently depreciating assets and therefore futures won’t drain lower over time. And for those old enough to get the joke, a history reminder: Enron entered the broadband…

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not confused about gender @JRmarkets

2 days ago

@blondesnmoney i think its morning news re Millennium taking 100m loss in First Brands. every one is dumping BDCs and Credit (and trades alt managers) as a result. i am shopping.

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Samantha LaDuc @SamanthaLaDuc

2 days ago

I love smart clients: Q: "What is the recent plunge in Alt Mgmt. names $KKR $BX $APO telling us?" Client Aaron😉 A: FALLING CREDIT QUALITY trumps FALLING CREDIT SPREADS

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Peter Berezin @PeterBerezinBCA

2 days ago

Home prices declined again in July. The Case-Shiller index fell for the 5th month in a row while FHFA fell for the 4th month in a row. Despite this, real home prices are still 10% above their GFC bubble peak.