BankSynthesis @BankSynthesis

Navigating complex, interconnected markets views=mine, RT≠myviews Washington DC Joined August 2011

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Peter Schmidt (The 92ers) @The92ers

4 hours ago

One of the biggest myths of the 2008 crisis, 'no one saw it coming.' Here's @GrantsPub, 2-years before Lehman, discussing the exact features of mortgage bonds that make it a good short. Jim also predicts 'trillions' in losses.

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Mac10 @SuburbanDrone

a day ago

This is the three month moving average of jobs growth. Where are you ever going to see the jobs market overlaid with the stock market. Only here.

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Paulo Macro @PauloMacro

13 hours ago

.82 correlation over nearly 20yrs but Scotty B’s models say we need 150+ bps cuts Via Leuthold Group

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research @RenMacLLC

24 hours ago

Job finding is the risk in the labor market. According to the NY Fed SCE, the probability of losing a job remains relatively low. However, the mean probability of finding a job if you lose one today plunged to 44.91%, a level never before seen in the history of this survey.

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Charlie Bilello @charliebilello

a day ago

At 4.3%, the US Unemployment Rate is now 0.9% above the cycle low from April 2023 (3.4%). Historically, a recession has started on average 3 months before that 0.9% move higher in the Unemployment Rate. Are we headed for a recession or is this time different?

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Don Johnson @DonMiami3

a day ago

Heavy truck sales are rolling over

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Guilherme Tavares @i3_invest

a day ago

I have to admit that this chart is not what I wanted to see. If a run like this happens in yields, it is definitely not going to bode well for the markets. Thanks, @McClellanOsc — very insightful.

Tom McClellan @McClellanOsc

2 days ago

I have to admit that this chart is not what I wanted to see. If a run like this happens in yields, it is definitely not going to bode well for the markets. Thanks, @McClellanOsc — very insightful. https://t.co/YGIgPAs06s

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Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ @FreightAlley

2 days ago

Alan Greenspan used to track cardboard boxes and trucking volumes as a barometer of the US economy. Cardboard and package materials have dropped to 2015 levels. 1/

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Nothing To See Here @TylerHardt

a day ago

In a note to clients on Friday, Rick Rieder, BlackRock's chief investment officer of global fixed income, noted that over the past three months, healthcare accounts for more than all of the jobs created in the US economy. Excluding growth from healthcare, Rieder noted that total…

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James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy

5 days ago

Old rule: just follow the 2yr yield. The Fed will follow. A decisive break of the 3.5% area targets the 2.50% range.

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Greg Ip @greg_ip

2 days ago

Strongly worded critique of Trump's pressure on Fed by @Citadel CEO Ken Griffin, and Chicago U's Anil Kashyap. "The president’s strategy of publicly criticizing the Fed, suggesting the dismissal of governors, and pressuring the central bank to adopt a more permissive stance…

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Amanda Goodall @thejobchick

3 days ago

Meta just Enron’d the data center.

Kakashii @kakashiii111

3 days ago

Meta just Enron’d the data center. https://t.co/kpJicqjEzl

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Tom McClellan @McClellanOsc

2 days ago

Recession is evident in the manufacturing employment data. And in trucking.

Northstar @NorthstarCharts

2 days ago

Recession is evident in the manufacturing employment data. And in trucking. https://t.co/njezyRCb08

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Darth Powell @VladTheInflator

2 days ago

LLLLLLLLLLLLLFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

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Melody Wright @m3_melody

2 days ago

This + the Bessent op-ed means it's getting 🌶️ Same journalist who wrote the FHA expose from last Spring Well timed, well placed Last line of the quote re: meaningfully lower mortgage rates: 🔥"Don’t bet your house on it"🔥 Link in the reply

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Peter Berezin @PeterBerezinBCA

2 days ago

On September 9, the BLS will release annual benchmark revisions to non-farm payrolls for April 2024 to March 2025. Based on the already published data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages for the last three quarters of 2024, it is likely that past payrolls will be…

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Danielle DiMartino Booth @DiMartinoBooth

2 days ago

Hard data via 12M US employers show net job losses commenced in Q2 2024 Econ 101 teaches us that job destruction has only ever started in the United States after recession onset, which puts recession onset in Q1 2024 (McKelvey Rule was triggered in Oct 2023 & again in Apr 2024)

David Machanick @machanick

2 days ago

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Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited

2 days ago

For those folks who adhere to the Fiscal Dominance theory, how do you explain the pretty clear slowing of growth in 1H25 at a time when fiscal deficits remain roughly on par with previous years? (this is not a troll... genuinely interested to hear how you respond)