William Gustafson @FindingEquity

Portfolio Manager and equity research analyst since 2006 with a focus on real estate and US equities. New Canaan, CT Joined August 2009

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder

2 years ago

'To get to a $740 share price simply requires NVDA to maintain a monopolist-like operating profit margin of 55% for the next decade, while also growing sales 10x to more than $600bn. For context, the entire industry sold $527bn worth of chips last year.' ft.com/content/0cffec…

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William Gustafson @FindingEquity

2 years ago

Marvel drops actor Jonathan Majors after assault conviction, source says @CNBC cnbc.com/2023/12/18/mar…

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William Gustafson @FindingEquity

2 years ago

Enphase Energy will lay off roughly 10% of workforce as part of restructuring plan @CNBC cnbc.com/2023/12/18/enp…

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John P. Hussman, Ph.D. @hussmanjp

2 years ago

yes, even if we see a recession - bond yields typically don't retreat materially until you're over a year in

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Jeffrey Gundlach @TruthGundlach

2 years ago

US budget deficit is near 9% of GDP in an economy not viewed as being in recession. That means if a year ago we actually (*shock*) balanced the budget, GDP would have been near -6% last 12 months. If rates stay at 5.5% long enough interest payments will go up another $1 TRILLION

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Kantro @MichaelKantro

2 years ago

Will this bond-induced relief rally finally provide for sustainable breadth? Or should you not chase the recovery trade and stick with quality? The better risk-reward is the latter IMHO. Quality typically leads until earnings *broadly* improve. #macro #hoPe $RSP $IWM

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Kantro @MichaelKantro

3 years ago

History is very consistent - bond yields will not go down and stay down until the Fed is at their last rate hike. Then bonds rally hard. We remain neutral on LT bonds here. Trying to be patient. #macro #Fed #pivot $TLT

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Kantro @MichaelKantro

3 years ago

Market performance after the Fed is done hiking depends on 2 things: 1) are we heading towards a recession?; and 2) how far is that recession away? When recession followed, but recession was near, stocks saw a paltry pivot rally and then kept falling. #macro #fed #hope

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William Gustafson @FindingEquity

2 years ago

The question will be what event or events cause the market to price a recession. It seems that we are setting up for a volatile 24, but the market likely will be far enough through a recession to rally after the election. As with 23, timing is key.

David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie

2 years ago

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David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie

2 years ago

Powell didn’t want to talk about a hard landing on the podium, but the Fed’s 3.8% nominal GDP growth projection for 2024 gave us the answer in any event… this has a 90% recession probability attached to it. Shhhhhh….

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Reuters @Reuters

2 years ago

The Federal Reserve signaled that its interest rate-hiking policy of the last two years is at an end and that it sees lower borrowing costs in 2024 reut.rs/41kicsy

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William Gustafson @FindingEquity

2 years ago

Ultimately the Fed pivot is setting up the market to look for more front loaded hikes. Given the levels of the stock market and employment, the timing and amount of Fed easing may not live up to the hype. Post FOMC, Gundlach said to expect a lot of volatility in 24…

Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos

2 years ago

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Francois Trahan, M²SD @FrancoisTrahan

2 years ago

I'm glad to see this theme gaining some traction. The budget math doesn't add up and unfortunately a recession only makes things worse. The deficit is around 5-6% of GDP and this as we head into a recession, when it historically widens. Not a good combo. cnbc.com/2023/09/28/ray…

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William Gustafson @FindingEquity

2 years ago

We have seen this theme from several in the past few weeks, including Ajman and Gross, but I think Trahan has the best track record of making data driven forecasts…. This is worth watching!

Francois Trahan, M²SD @FrancoisTrahan

2 years ago

We have seen this theme from several in the past few weeks, including Ajman and Gross, but I think Trahan has the best track record of making data driven forecasts…. This is worth watching!

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William Gustafson @FindingEquity

2 years ago

This is a very human portrait of Buffett, and I think it is a fascinating look into a more personal side of his life. This is a "must watch" for Buffett fans. Definitely 1.5 hours well spent.

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Mark Minervini @markminervini

2 years ago

We remain on our January 13 $SPY buy signal. However, with regard to individual stocks and breakout buys, we are not finding many names in buyable bases with crisp low risk entry points. On balance, our Open Positions have not gained enough traction to warrant getting aggressive…