ING Economics @ING_Economics
Follow us to stay a step ahead as our economists and strategists try to make sense of the world. ing.com/THINK London Joined March 2015-
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US labour costs accelerated in the first quarter, further ammunition to justify a hawkish shift at tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, writes @Knightleyeco think.ing.com/snaps/us-emplo…
💥 The eurozone's inflation outlook really clouds the waters for the ECB in coming months. Here's the latest think.ing.com/snaps/eurozone…
🇪🇺 We said ages ago we were more optimistic about Europe, and the latest GDP numbers indicate that was a good call think.ing.com/snaps/the-euro…
With growth returning, the sun finally shining and two German football teams in the semifinals of the Champions League, is everything suddenly hunky-dory again in Germany? @carstenbrzeski thinks not. think.ing.com/snaps/the-germ…
Consumer price inflation in France stood at 2.2% in April compared with 2.3% in March, while the harmonised index remained stable at 2.4%. Even so, @CdeMontpellier notes that inflation could rise again in the coming months think.ing.com/snaps/france-i…
🇯🇵 March activity data was a mixed bag for Japan. Weak manufacturing weighed on growth in the first quarter of the year, but we think that consumption is likely to improve on the back of a healthy labour market think.ing.com/snaps/japan-st…
GDP growth in France surged more quickly than expected at 0.2% for the quarter. That said, we think growth is unlikely to accelerate in the coming months - here's why think.ing.com/snaps/french-g…
Japan has likely intervened in the FX market, but we won't see much confirmation of this until the end of May - and in the meantime, more support to the yen may well be needed as markets still have reasons to push USD/JPY higher think.ing.com/articles/fx-da…
2024 looks set to be a more challenging year for the US construction industry: think.ing.com/articles/north…
🇩🇪 Germany's disinflationary trend has come to an end, and that might cause some headaches for the ECB think.ing.com/snaps/german-i…
The European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator unexpectedly fell in April and selling price expectations softened in most sectors, suggesting a June rate cut is still on the cards, says @PVandenHoute think.ing.com/snaps/the-euro…
While not yet official, there are strong indications that Japan intervened in the FX market this morning after USD/JPY touched 160.0. Here are our thoughts: think.ing.com/articles/fx-da…
🇯🇵 ICYMI: New lows for the yen after markets left disappointed with Bank of Japan's 'colourless' statement: $JPY think.ing.com/snaps/bank-of-…
The Bank of England is trying to tell us something, and markets are finally starting to take notice... think.ing.com/articles/bank-…
🇩🇪 A third monthly increase in the Ifo index suggests the worst may be over for the German economy, so says ING's @carstenbrzeski think.ing.com/snaps/german-i…
🇺🇸The pressure to decarbonise is steadily increasing for the US buildings and real estate sector - and with it, the need to reduce the impact of climate change on physical assets... think.ing.com/articles/decar…
🇺🇸 We still see an opportunity for a September rate cut in the States. But the Federal Reserve will probably remain wary next week and signal that if inflation stays high, so will interest rates... think.ing.com/articles/fed-l…
The Bank of England is trying to tell us something, and markets are finally starting to take notice think.ing.com/articles/bank-…
🇩🇪 A third monthly increase in the Ifo index suggests the worst may be over for the German economy, so says @carstenbrzeski think.ing.com/snaps/german-i…
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Sterling has seen some noticeable underperformance recently following dovish comments from internal MPC members. Here's our take on what the rising probability of a June BoE cut could mean for the currency... think.ing.com/articles/fx-da…
Completely on the same page as our esteemed colleagues over at ING in terms of #UK #inflation subsiding in June. Regarding imminent #BoE #rates cuts, though, we expect the #MPC to hold off until there's further corroboration of disinflation continuing.
How UK inflation is set to fall further by June. And whisper it... The Bank of England might just cut rates then.
@ING_Economics Cudo's to the ING team for being open about why you lowered your Eur/USD estimate. It is also great that you take a stand one way or the other vs the normal squishy 2 sided narratives. Thanks for what you do.
Hungary’s headline inflation in March inched slightly lower, but the rate of monthly repricing accelerated somewhat. Services inflation was the biggest driver, creating an unfavourable turn in the inflation structure.
Services inflation is heating up in Hungary. We think the country is likely to see two rounds of acceleration this year ⬇️ think.ing.com/snaps/services…
@MrMBrown @ING_Economics Always liked their stuff... 👍
Why a June BoE rate cut isn't yet guaranteed think.ing.com/articles/the-b…
Deja vu? PHL 🇵🇭 2024 GDP growth target lowered to 6-7% from 6.5-7.5%. If we recall, 2023 GDP aspirations were revised lower to 6-7%. Actual GDP 2023: 5.5%. Challenges like tight fiscal space & @BangkoSentral rate hikes weighed on GDP in 2023 & will likely do so again in 2024.
China's economy not in decline, but in transition. Transitioning to: Greener, Digital, Higer Value, & Consumption Kudos @ING_Economics #China #tech #innovation @baoshaoshan @thecyrusjanssen @DOualaalou @lajohnstondr @davidpgoldman @pstAsiatech think.ing.com/downloads/pdf/…
@richardturrin @ING_Economics @baoshaoshan @thecyrusjanssen @DOualaalou @lajohnstondr @davidpgoldman @pstAsiatech ING consistently publishes the most sensible take on Chinese economic challenges and policies. I remember their note on real estate debt management was particularly good.
If you don't already follow @ING_Economics then you really should The amount of GOOD QUALITY research they Tweet for FREE is unbelievable For example 👇👇 What a shift in Fed Dots would mean for G10 FX ... ING think.ing.com/articles/what-….
Useful content from @ING_Economics ahead of the FOMC later "G9 FX correlations versus 2024 Fed easing expectations"
Monthly growth in bank lending has turned cautiously positive again for both corporates and households. The fact that declines have stopped adds to expectations that the ECB is in no rush towards rate cuts.
Some more thoughts on the modest tick down in ECB negotiated wage growth here: think.ing.com/snaps/eurozone…
We're delighted that our latest partnership - with global financial institution @ING_news - has just begun with a £100,000 fundraising target! Helping ING to enhance their mental health offering to their staff is just one of the many benefits of this exciting partnership.
Me in the office listening to our newest member of staff asking if he can write "love is in the air for the FTSE 100"
Great summary of the confusion from today's ECB press conference by @ING_Economics
Don't waste a quiet day... get your ECB homework done!!!
Here it is... Our latest ECB cheat sheet ahead of next week's meeting. Catch up on our team's full analysis here: think.ing.com/articles/janua…
👉👏This really is a fantastic piece of FREE research on all things Eurozone from the guys @ING_Economics
Caught between stagnation, transition and geopolitics, where's the eurozone headed? A deep-dive into every major country ⬇️ think.ing.com/bundles/the-eu…