Mike Mazarr @MMazarr
Senior Political Scientist at @RANDCorporation. U.S. defense policy, East Asian security, nuclear weapons and deterrence. Opinions mine, RTs not endorsements. Joined July 2019-
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Feels like a pretty seismic week in EU-China relations. I get the feeling that we're not in Kansas anymore Here is a summary of the major events that have happened, let me know if I missed any, bearing in mind it's still only lunchtime on Friday...
Thoughtful view of recent Scholz visit. A pattern across many democracies, including the US: All are a few years into a new reality of needing to compete, trade + cooperate with an almost entirely self-interested China and are improvising madly w/o clear concepts to guide them
Thoughtful view of recent Scholz visit. A pattern across many democracies, including the US: All are a few years into a new reality of needing to compete, trade + cooperate with an almost entirely self-interested China and are improvising madly w/o clear concepts to guide them
Another example of the creep of bureaucratic ossification which is such a threat to future US dynamism + competitive advantage
Another example of the creep of bureaucratic ossification which is such a threat to future US dynamism + competitive advantage
Very important piece on Russia/Ukraine peace talks in early 2022. What I take from it is that, late into those talks, Russia continued to make new & unacceptable demands that would have turned Ukraine into a weak & undefensible vassal state. foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/talks-…
Very important piece on Russia/Ukraine peace talks in early 2022. What I take from it is that, late into those talks, Russia continued to make new & unacceptable demands that would have turned Ukraine into a weak & undefensible vassal state. foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/talks-… https://t.co/T47YSjWLkV
From @DrRadchenko & @scharap, an analysis of the Russo-Ukrainian negotiations at the start of the big war in 2022. It is an interesting read but ultimately an unpersuasive argument that a deal to forestall further fighting was nearly at hand. 1/x
From @DrRadchenko & @scharap, an analysis of the Russo-Ukrainian negotiations at the start of the big war in 2022. It is an interesting read but ultimately an unpersuasive argument that a deal to forestall further fighting was nearly at hand. 1/x
It's time to address some of the points raised by the esteemed commentariat. But, first of all, thank you for your engagement. @scharap and I expected that the article would be of interest, and we were certainly not disappointed.
It's time to address some of the points raised by the esteemed commentariat. But, first of all, thank you for your engagement. @scharap and I expected that the article would be of interest, and we were certainly not disappointed.
Compelling argument for the sort of tools the US needs to engage in full-fledged economic strategy warontherocks.com/2024/04/operat…
Michael Kofman @KofmanMichael
451K Followers 320 Following Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment. Defense analysis with a focus on the Russian and Ukrainian militaries.Paul Poast @ProfPaulPoast
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5K Followers 239 Following "The refusal of one decent man outweighs the acquiescence of the multitude."I’m a 40 year old man and I can admit I still like being told I did a good job. I am a 40 year old golden retriever.
The prevailing notion that the Biden-Xi summit in California last November "stabilized" the US-China relationship was never well-grounded. Beijing and Washington have a lot of work to do if they want to insulate the relationship against the potential for another downward spiral.
For @RStatecraft, I argue that under the impression of calm and complacency that comes from empty diplomatic exchanges, pressures are steadily building. Let’s not squander this rare moment when both the US and China have good reason to seek real progress. responsiblestatecraft.org/antony-blinken…
I think if academe was less siloed and also more open to non PhD professors and experts of practice it would help. Many academics are doing great research but aren’t clued in enough to how their work connects (or doesn’t) to real people and real world issues
Very good remark by @RanaForoohar to the first panel of this (great) conference asking how can academic research reach the media. I am surprised that no one answered that (most) universities lack communication responsibles for that (difficult) task. @TomValletti @johnvanreenen
Restoring deterrence is like finding dark matter, which is believed to make up most of the universe's mass, but we cannot be certain it actually exists
Analysts close to Israel are saying that Israel managed to restore deterrence. Analysts close to Iran/Axis of Resistance are saying that Israel failed to restore deterrence. That’s a good place to be at and close this chapter.
Two scholars dare to publish an analysis based on facts rather than emotions and are open to reasonable debate about their interpretations of those facts. Drama ensues.
It's time to address some of the points raised by the esteemed commentariat. But, first of all, thank you for your engagement. @scharap and I expected that the article would be of interest, and we were certainly not disappointed.
Foreign Affairs published today the results of a most fruitful collaboration between @scharap and yours truly, an article on the failed peace talks between Russia and Ukraine (March-April 2022). foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/talks-….
It was absolutely an insurrection. A crowd was summoned, briefed, whipped up, and directed on the only day possible for their efforts to disrupt the Constitutionally designated process for turnover of power. A failed insurrection is still very much an insurrection.
There was no insurrection. That is a left/media talking point. It was a riot, yes. It was not an insurrection. Those who believe this don't actually care about the truth though.
this is more support for one of my philosophies, which is: always read stuff that @MMazarr writes. Great piece in @ForeignAffairs -- foreignaffairs.com/united-states/…
Happy to announce that I've been named Inaugural Distinguished Chair in Russia and Eurasia Policy @RANDCorporation. I appreciate the vote of confidence and look forward to continuing RAND's long tradition of important work on the region.
Senior political scientist @scharap has been selected to serve as our inaugural Distinguished Chair in Russia and Eurasia Policy. bit.ly/43S8i2B
Come on Chen Weihua. You are smarter than this. You are suggesting that countries like Japan are just doing what the US wants to keep Washington happy. I have spent lots of time in Japan over 30+ years and the shift in the population in recent years is remarkable.
@Dimi You mean Japan has become a 100% U.S. puppet instead of just 80%???
This:
Many U.S. officials believe this, not recognizing that the Philippines is an outlier in Southeast Asia. In fact, the rest of the region is hedging, and tends to be quite critical of the path that Manila has chosen. The U.S. is losing the narrative battle in most of the region.
Do you often think about the Roman Empire? Are you looking for an entertaining weekend read on grand strategy & military history? My book “Iron Imperator” is now available on kindle at the *extremely* reasonable price of $7.50 amazon.com/gp/aw/d/B0CXJR…
Folks should understand that when I advocate things like ratifying UNCLOS and pushing confidence building measures, it's not because I'm a softy on China (if you think that, you haven't been paying attention). It's because I want this:
Some passages from Mike Mazarr's LEAP OF FAITH, the best book that has been written about the decision making that led to Iraq (purchase it here: amzn.to/38LarRI) .
@JRHunTx @Scholars_Stage @MMazarr I think there's room for both frames. Per Leap of Faith's intro, 2 core explanations: A Pearl Harbor-level nat'l shock fuels action bias & combines w/ existing beliefs about our nat'l role such that logic of appropriateness trumps sober application of the logic of consequences.
So much awesomeness in this. BZ, Ike!
Today’s “IKE Warrior of the Day” is a junior seaman, but today we gave her the keys to the ship and let her drive it as the conning officer. She was a natural! She will be leading many in the future…
NEW: This week, the Chinese government unveiled its 2024 budget and new data on China's fiscal situation in 2023. We've updated our @ChinaPowerCSIS page on the government budget with all-new data & analysis to reflect the new budget. chinapower.csis.org/making-sense-o…
Gee, what are the odds that @DavidSacks, to say nothing of @elonmusk , will ever bother to read the careful argument, made by an actual realist scholar, in an actual peer reviewed journal, writing in 1992, for why it made sense for US to maintain NATO?
@OAlexanderDK @elonmusk Of course most countries would want their security guaranteed and largely paid for by the United States. The question is why the U.S. should want to do that.