Scott Minerd @ScottMinerd
March 21, 1959 - December 21, 2022 guggenheiminvestments.com USA Joined August 2010-
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With great sadness, we mourn the passing of Scott Minerd, our leader, colleague, and friend.
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Today's #PMI release places US #manufacturing firmly in #recession territory. Readings below 48.5 historically indicate contraction in manufacturing activity.
Delighted to join our Macro Markets podcast for a look back and look ahead on the economy and the markets. gugg.gp/3uX731w
Delighted to join our Macro Markets podcast for a look back and look ahead on the economy and the markets. gugg.gp/3uX731w
Latest NY Empire Manuf., Retail Sales, Philly Fed Index, and Industrial Production all confirm Fed tightening is slowing the economy. Resistance at 4100 on S&P shows downtrend in equities firmly in place. Opportunity to reduce equity exposure or establish short position.
The #Fed delivered the message that the market wanted to hear. For rates it’s bullish, for stocks it’s bearish. gugg.gp/3uUIO3U
This may be a bear market relief rally, but I would stay fully invested at this point. gugg.gp/3E1yz1H
A divided government is a great outcome. #ElectionDay gugg.gp/3DWXSlP
The #jobs data trend suggests that we’re getting closer to the labor market weakness the #Fed is aiming for and should be good news for long duration assets as well as risk appetite. gugg.gp/3Ucm3U3
“Cumulative tightening” is an artful way for the #Fed to get off the hamster wheel of doing a 75 bps hike per meeting, while “sufficiently restrictive” aims to redirect the market’s attention to the terminal rate. gugg.gp/3DxnB3S
With the #Fed still tightening and a #recession looming (if it’s not here already) we have to be careful with credit selection, but our risk appetite is strong right now driven by the relatively wide spreads and low dollar prices available in the market.
I wouldn’t call today’s #FOMC decision/statement a pivot, but by acknowledging the need to wait for the lagged effects of “cumulative tightening,” the Fed has opened the door to it. But they will still have to see it in the data.
SOFR-Eurodollar spread spiking to over 50 bps reinforces the message from our recent report: Investors need to understand that #SOFR will not behave like #LIBOR. Buyer beware. gugg.gp/3CbHyg9
Financial crisis returns as UK #Gilts collapse to preintervention levels of last week, putting pressure on US rates as risk rises for global market turmoil and increasing the probability of a coordinated global policy response.
The last time the #bond market reached these stress levels of illiquidity and volatility, the #Fed cut rates. gugg.gp/3SRWh6y
Over the last 25 years, September has failed to beat NFP consensus 76% of the time, the worst downside surprise track record for any month. If we come in below consensus of 250k (could possibly be negative), the Fed Pivot trade could go into overdrive. gugg.gp/3SRWh6y
Investors can throw out projecting an end of fed fund rate increases based upon #inflation, unemployment, or other macroeconomic factors. The end of #Fed tightening will come when something breaks, and from where I sit cracks are forming. gugg.gp/3SRWh6y
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17K Followers 991 Following Wall Street Editor at The Financial Times, erstwhile I-banker, co-author: CAESARS PALACE COUP, Diversion Books, March 2021Thank you @ScottMinerd, Chief Investment Officer at @GuggenheimPtnrs, and @NPearlstine, Executive Editor at the @latimes, for your perspectives on the role of financiers in social justice. Your thoughts and insights move forward one of the most important topics in investing.
@USTreasury @CFTC “I’m reminded of what I was told early in my career: the only difference between a treasury note and a treasury trader is that the treasury note matures.“ -Scott Minerd, Guggenheim Partners #TreasuryMarket
@USTreasury @CFTC “One of my biggest concerns is as this all becomes much more efficient… You concentrate the players, the system itself becomes more vulnerable to this kind of shock.” -Scott Minerd, Guggenheim Partners #TreasuryMarket
Great piece @ScottMinerd : Strong dollar holds down inflation. Must read. guggenheimpartners.com/perspectives/g…
Proud to announce the opening of our representative office in Japan bit.ly/1o8FfPt
Thanks @ScottMinerd for taking time to meet with me and my colleagues today! Fascinating to hear your insights on bonds, stocks, etc
so says @ScottMinerd of Guggenheim on foxbiz earlier today. And the Big Guy just followed me on Twitter, so now we like him even more...
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