B Clabaugh @b_clabaugh
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Meanwhile foreclosure sales are beginning their climb Per Black Knight "FHA loans continue to see the largest annual increases, with the non-current rate (delinquencies including foreclosures) up by 86 bps to 12.0% in August" FHA guardrails on loss mit start in 6 days
Meanwhile foreclosure sales are beginning their climb Per Black Knight "FHA loans continue to see the largest annual increases, with the non-current rate (delinquencies including foreclosures) up by 86 bps to 12.0% in August" FHA guardrails on loss mit start in 6 days https://t.co/tlPRNpu8PY
Interesting
SPX, which is weighted by float-adjusted market-cap, versus the equal-weight SPX. The equal-weight SPX has outperformed the SPX since inception because small typically outperforms large. That relationship inverts in booms/bubbles when bigger stocks outperform smaller stocks.…
SPX, which is weighted by float-adjusted market-cap, versus the equal-weight SPX. The equal-weight SPX has outperformed the SPX since inception because small typically outperforms large. That relationship inverts in booms/bubbles when bigger stocks outperform smaller stocks.… https://t.co/BpBv88Qr1E
It’s different this time…
In my @X feed just now. Think it’s a sign…🤣
VALUATIONS There's a lot of talk about how rich the market is right now -- and it's warranted. But its not the entire market. Take a look at the P/E of the firms in the S&P 500 that are below $100 billion in market value, the story is very different than the mega-caps.
US debt investors raise alarm over lending standards ft.com/content/cdb5ad… via @FT | The great forbearance is ending October 1st even as the institutional community is desperately trying to hide restructured crapola.... #CRE #PE
🚨New Home Sales Existing sellers 👻beware🎃 - the builders are pushing hard for quarter and year-end Sales up 17.86% both YOY and MOM July prices revised down below $400K to $395K🫢 Prices up 1.90% YOY and 4.66% MOM Look at 📈in over $1M Revisions will be telling
This morning’s blowout new-home sales pushed the Bbg Economic Surprise Index positive for the 1st time since May. But the surge was fueled by rampant builder price cuts & incentives—39% reported cutting prices, with some offering perks worth 14% of sale value. 📈ECAN US SURPRISE
This rally isn’t hope. It’s survival. Speculation is what you do when the ladders are gone. 📌 The reality in 2025: Youth unemployment 9.2% Homes at 7.5x income Student debt $1.7T AI eating entry jobs Gambling looks rational when the system blocks you out.
This rally isn’t hope. It’s survival. Speculation is what you do when the ladders are gone. 📌 The reality in 2025: Youth unemployment 9.2% Homes at 7.5x income Student debt $1.7T AI eating entry jobs Gambling looks rational when the system blocks you out.
What I wrote 24h ago: “Oracle will use OpenAI’s commitment, now backed by Nvidia, to raise debt to buy Nvidia GPUs and scale up its infrastructure to serve OpenAI’s demand” Today: $ORCL targets to raise 15bn$ in debt issuing bonds
What I wrote 24h ago: “Oracle will use OpenAI’s commitment, now backed by Nvidia, to raise debt to buy Nvidia GPUs and scale up its infrastructure to serve OpenAI’s demand” Today: $ORCL targets to raise 15bn$ in debt issuing bonds https://t.co/x1KOuZOaiE
Even Bloomberg picked this up.
US Financials most loved...and US Energy the most hated
"10 S&P stocks are responsible for nearly 2/3rds of the index’s gain this year (5 stocks nearly make up 50% of the move). Alternatively, about 40% of S&P stocks are still DOWN on the year … Even though the major indices are hitting new all-time highs, the percent of S&P…
The bottom 50% of America only own 2% of our country’s wealth.
When OpenAI (with a hoped-for 2025 revenue stream of $13 billion) promises to spend $300 billion over five years with Oracle. And then NVDA gives OpenAI $100 billion to buy NVDA chips to go in Oracles data centers … don’t you wonder how it’s all going to work?
I’m no expert but… Isn’t Nvidia just giving Open AI $100 billion that Open AI will give right back to Nvidia? The round trip resulting in Nvidia claiming more earning and Open AI claiming a higher valuation? 🧐
Show me a place with a large number of currently underwater FHA mortgages and Ill show you a place dominated by builder lending. Article link in 1st reply. No paywall on this one. @NewsLambert @iamjonbrooks
How banks turn a bad loan into a good loan via "note-on-note financing": Banks sell a "bad loan" to buyers & lend them the money necessary to buy the loan. 11 minute full reveal on financial alchemy that's been working well... for now 👇 shorturl.at/33i3l
Trucking has been in my family since the 1960’s. We’ve lived through multiple cycles: Trucking deregulation, oil crisis, stagflation, the S&L collapse, Gulf War, Sept 11, and the financial crisis. I’ve spoken to dozens of trucking veterans with 40+ years of experience -…
Trucking has been in my family since the 1960’s. We’ve lived through multiple cycles: Trucking deregulation, oil crisis, stagflation, the S&L collapse, Gulf War, Sept 11, and the financial crisis. I’ve spoken to dozens of trucking veterans with 40+ years of experience -…
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