Jack L @convexreflexive
Physician, entrepreneur, investor. ex-Tiger cub HF Toronto, Canada Joined October 2012-
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Jack L retweeted
I’ve traded every market top beginning with 87 00 08 20 That is four real tops that had massive draw downs Every single one had some form of systemic flaw and catalyst that was pin point clear in hindsight, and known in real time. Timing it without getting laid out is an…
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Well played
Jack L retweeted
everything is computer and you tried to short stocks because of interest rates?
Jack L retweeted
instant sign of a midwit: seeking predictors after the target variable is already observable example: IQ (+other standardized test scores) is meant to predict whether the kinds of things a person will do or say are intelligent once you have observed the person do or say many…
Jack L retweeted
@imetatronink @ArmchairW I was personally involved in a "decoy" business, and I can say with high confidence that the Iranians have developed their own approach, often using dummy trucks with missile-like shells. It's not complicated, but it does require attention to detail, as the decoy must resemble…
Jack L retweeted
crude up 8% spoos down 160bps still kind of seems wrong
Congrats
Sorry guys - seems like the conservatives have done phenomenally well, but the NDP vote just completely collapsed
Sorry guys - seems like the conservatives have done phenomenally well, but the NDP vote just completely collapsed
🔵 CPC 42% 🔴 LPC 41% 🟠 NPD 8% ⚜️ BQ 7% 🟣 PPC 1% 🟢 GPC 1% IVR n=2,182, random dialing, adjusted for neighbor vote correction
The neighbor vote correctly predicted 2016/2020/2024 US elections - regular polling methodology is broken and we're in for a major conservative victory
The neighbor vote correctly predicted 2016/2020/2024 US elections - regular polling methodology is broken and we're in for a major conservative victory
I got polled today, call came from a “spam probable” number, the same kind CRA/tech support scammers sends on a weekly basis. I would’ve usually ignored but answered out of curiosity. It lasted 30 seconds, no demographic info was asked of me, simply vote intention. Who do you…
I got polled today, call came from a “spam probable” number, the same kind CRA/tech support scammers sends on a weekly basis. I would’ve usually ignored but answered out of curiosity. It lasted 30 seconds, no demographic info was asked of me, simply vote intention. Who do you… https://t.co/Q1B7rjers3
Jack L retweeted
I asked Amex if they could split my statement into operating and capital expenses. Apparently no matter how you split it, if you don't pay it off entirely, the interest rate applies to both.
The odds are wildly off at 38% for popular vote and simply reflect broken polling methodology - Conservatives have never lost the popular vote since 2006 except for Trudeau in 2015 where higher turnout skewed the Liberals who were anti-incumbent at the time, we are seeing the…
The odds are wildly off at 38% for popular vote and simply reflect broken polling methodology - Conservatives have never lost the popular vote since 2006 except for Trudeau in 2015 where higher turnout skewed the Liberals who were anti-incumbent at the time, we are seeing the…
Polls are about to be blindsided: There will be a silent majority supporting the Conservatives. A short history of polling: - Back in the 1970s, polls were done by random dialing via landline phones, and answer rates were in the 50-70%. Everybody had access to a phone and there…
Jack L retweeted
Fantastic insight from a talk between @rbrtrmstrng and @edels0n on Prof G Markets: AI is best modeled by another AI — the Airline Industry. - High CapEx, low margins - Brutal competition eroding pricing power - Aggregators win, not operators - Consumers capture most of the…
Short NQ, ES, TSE60 @ futs open Short PDD, F, GM @ overnight open if spread not ridiculous Hold overnight and reassess Monday AM
Short NQ, ES, TSE60 @ futs open Short PDD, F, GM @ overnight open if spread not ridiculous Hold overnight and reassess Monday AM
All eyes on Canadian lumber and Magna/GM/Ford but PDD will be in a world of hurt and the de minimis tariff has absolutely not been priced in - probably most asymmetrical play here
Nov 30 2022 Dec 20 2024 2 nukes dropped on mankind, eerie feeling knowing the world will never be the same moving forward
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