Michael Denicola @denicomc
Economic Analyst working in the financial services industry. Degree in Quantitative Finance & Financial Economics from James Madison University views are my own Joined December 2009-
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Michael Denicola retweeted
Apollo's Torsten Sløk: "With continued strong growth and upside pressures on inflation from tariffs, immigration restrictions, and the declining dollar, the FOMC should really be talking about rate hikes rather than rate cuts."
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Michael Denicola retweeted
Zillow just revised its home price forecast for over 400 housing markets After a series of downgrades earlier this year, Zillow economists have now issued several upgrades resiclubanalytics.com/p/zillow-revis…
Michael Denicola retweeted
Bettors are not looking for a last-minute deal to avoid a shutdown.
Michael Denicola retweeted
Fertility rates are way below what the Social Security Trustees projected in both 2000 and 2010. And yet they have barely updated their long-run forecast. What's the best argument for the plausibility of their forecast?
Michael Denicola retweeted
Typical effective property tax rate by county, as calculated by ResiClub
Michael Denicola retweeted
As we approach a potential government shutdown, here’s a handy shortcut on @TheTerminal to view a sampling of alternative and private economic data: WSL ALTE<GO>. Feel free to MSG/IB me with additional suggestions!
Michael Denicola retweeted
Historic US Government Shutdowns vs the S&P 500 (updated)
Michael Denicola retweeted
Prediction markets put shutdown odds at over 80% this year. Likelihood by length: (via @Kalshi & WSL PREDICT) 3d: 68% 5d: 60% 10d: 36% 35d: 11% Markets expect a shutdown, but not a long one.
Michael Denicola retweeted
Shutdown odds approach 100% in prediction markets ahead of the midnight deadline — though it’s surprising they aren’t already higher. The nature of politics.
Michael Denicola retweeted
Job growth in industries more reliant on unauthorized immigrants has been flat this year. These industries include construction, hotels, restaurants, home health care, & others in manufacturing, technology, & services. #PIIECharts More: piie.com/research/piie-…
Michael Denicola retweeted
Seasonality of weekly US soybean exports to China 🌱🇨🇳 2025: white line 2024: blue line 2018 (trade war): dotted orange Range (2015–24): gray band (G //KEY:6867188:3162<GO>)
What to expect when the US government shuts down, from Social Security to air travel via @gregorykorte @business bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Michael Denicola retweeted
With the budget deadline looming, @Polymarket & @Kalshi prediction markets on WSL PREDICT put the odds of a US gov’t shutdown above 70%, as Trump meets with top Democrats today.
Michael Denicola retweeted
Good Morning from Germany, where the Auto Industry to eliminate nearly 100,000 jobs by 2030. Carmakers and their suppliers are struggling w/waning demand, high labor & energy costs & intensifying competition from Chinese manufacturers. Overall, Germany’s auto sector has lost…
ECAN PCE SuperCore Drivers: Financial Services costs (i.e. stock market and associated services) Food services and transportation via @zerohedge zerohedge.com/markets/feds-f…
Q2 GDP Revised Sharply Higher To 3.8%, Best Quarter In Two Years via @zerohedge zerohedge.com/markets/q2-gdp…
Michael Denicola retweeted
Michael Denicola retweeted
The G7 and the EU are weighing new ways to chip away at China’s rare earths dominance. Tariffs or taxes on Chinese exports are on the table along with price floors and subsidies to jump start mining and processing capacity outside Beijing’s reach. The thinking is that by…
The G7 and the EU are weighing new ways to chip away at China’s rare earths dominance. Tariffs or taxes on Chinese exports are on the table along with price floors and subsidies to jump start mining and processing capacity outside Beijing’s reach. The thinking is that by… https://t.co/QB7MM3JnoX
Michael Denicola retweeted
The Fed’s job just got a little harder. Initial jobless claims fell back to 218k, close to year-to-date lows. At the same time, Q2 GDP was revised up again to 3.8%. Stable labor, hot growth, sticky inflation. Cuts are getting harder to justify. (a thread)
Michael Denicola retweeted
French borrowing costs top Italy’s in historic market shift bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @greg_ritchie
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