Fallacy Alarm @fallacyalarm
Blending single stock, macro and thematic research into differentiated bull and bear cases | 15y Corporate Finance & Equity Research | CFA fallacyalarm.com British Columbia, Canada Joined February 2020-
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$MSOS +25% today.
$ROOT 1Q24: Flooring the gas pedal even harder (incl. Excel workbook) These earnings support the bull case. Growth continues to be explosive and profitable which drives optimism. However, with the rapid share price appreciation, risks are rising, too.
$ROOT!! 🚀 Highly recommend @fallacyalarm! 👏👏 It works great, content is clear and educational. A "must follow" and if you can, support with a subscription. Totalmente recomendado! El contenido es claro y didáctico. Síguelo y suscríbete si puedes #MustFollow
$ROOT with another monster quarter. AH up 32% to $93. Stay tuned for an earnings review later tonight. 🔥 fallacyalarm.com
One of the biggest macro perceptions out there is to believe that the @USTreasury is on autopilot to ever higher deficits that are already out of control in a vicious debt spiral. It is empirically proven and a theoretically sound assumption that a deficit increase requires…
$CARR breaks above previous highs and recent downtrend. @fallacyalarm
I found this very thought provoking. Societal change happens because technology triggers it, not because we want it. The rifle triggered democracy because it shifted power from knights to peasants. What is the most influential technology today? To me it is social media. It…
I found this very thought provoking. Societal change happens because technology triggers it, not because we want it. The rifle triggered democracy because it shifted power from knights to peasants. What is the most influential technology today? To me it is social media. It…
Where will bond yields settle when the storm is over? Policy meddling is a wildcard that can't be predicted. But demographics clearly point to declining yields. fallacyalarm.com/p/where-will-b…
This is a pretty incredible graph. It plots the rolling avg. CPI increase over the preceding 5 years against the growth rate of the productive age population in the US (20-64). Normally, you'd expect this to not be positively correlated, especially not so significantly. After…
😂 even funnier considering the stagflation nonsense yesterday.
As a) the Fed is clearly governed by stupid people (defined as making decisions that are detrimental to both themselves and society) and b) stupid people don't follow incentives, it's pointless to predict its actions. The FFR is therefore simply a random variable. FWIW,…
bro always has impeccable timing
Words are just words. The only thing that can save $TSLA is a stabilization and reacceleration of earnings. I am not seeing any of that for years to come. I consider the share price reaction mostly a short squeeze because shorts got greedy. I have no idea how long and how far…
As the CEO, it's not Elon's job to opine on the value of $TSLA. That's what markets are for. His job is to create and grow value. But if he does believe markets are valuing the company on a wrong framework, what stops him from buying shares then? He wants 25% anyway, no?
@gullisgislason @LukeGromen Thank you for sharing. I believe that gold, BTC and bonds will grow with liquidity/credit/GDP, while stock will outperform by approximately the dividend/share buyback yield. FWIW, I have touched on this topic recently here if interested:
Seems like the collective answer is it's all 💩 and nothing can change that. 😅
Seems like the collective answer is it's all 💩 and nothing can change that. 😅
Why do you dislike real estate as an asset class and what must change for you to like it?
This is an important point. Debt service is of course an important variable for home prices, but it's not the only one. Builders won't magically produce the same number and quality of houses for 40% less just because credit is more expensive. The price of building materials is…
This is an important point. Debt service is of course an important variable for home prices, but it's not the only one. Builders won't magically produce the same number and quality of houses for 40% less just because credit is more expensive. The price of building materials is…
Let's talk about how much each asset class should return and how that compares to its current performance. TLDR: A bond bounce is due after the current puke. Investing is about bearing risk. Before an investor chooses an asset class to invest in, they need to decide what kind of…
Where does the credit impulse stand vs. the fiscal impulse? If we divide the loans and leases of US commercial banks by the debt held by the public, we get a metric that approximates the relationship between private sector debt and public sector debt. It looks like this: There…
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High bond yields don't cause recessions, it's recessions that cause bond yields to stop being high.
The biggest challenge for asset holders right now is bond yields are high and rising enough to create a drag on asset prices but not yet high enough to create the economic slowdown required for the Fed to ease.
$ROOT!! 🚀 Highly recommend @fallacyalarm! 👏👏 It works great, content is clear and educational. A "must follow" and if you can, support with a subscription. Totalmente recomendado! El contenido es claro y didáctico. Síguelo y suscríbete si puedes #MustFollow
@fallacyalarm @USTreasury I definitely see them raising taxes in the near future. The big tell will be Trump shifting his rhetoric to being a fiscal conservative. Even if Trump doesn't win, his job is to shift conservatives' views on things.
I have the solution to the Israel Palestine problem. We give one of the 50 states (my personal vote is South Dakota, but I’d agree to any of the least populous 40 states) to the people of Israel. All Israelis immediately become citizens of the United States. The Israelis sell…
@TPaintjob @fallacyalarm I did my part and put in whole new hvac system even if mini-splits.
$CARR breaks above previous highs and recent downtrend. @fallacyalarm
@Barchart locked in cheap debt and money market pay more for it… why should they reduce their cash?
@thefuzz247 That’s already being resolved and its not a Fed mandate (at least not directly) to help balance the US budget so they would never cite that as a reason for dropping rates. Any claim to that effect would be speculative I believe.
Per the Mar'24 monthly treasury statement, the cumulative FYTD primary deficit was $636bn, $164bn less than the $801bn last year. It's even declining when accounting for interest expenses ($1,065bn vs. $1,101bn). And this was before the April tax season which is looking very…
PLEASE read Inflation is lowering rate cut expectations but I am increasingly confident that’s exactly what is coming. fallacyalarm.com/p/the-state-of…
@JonFlynnREstats @Samasamahdi To have greed is to seek profit. Excessive greed is excessive profit. Where in this world in 2024 do RE have excessive profit, let alone profit at all? There is no profit left with high rate, if any profit get taxed by half anyway lol. Also blaming greed is signature of leftism
@fallacyalarm Not only bond yields... I am very skeptical of commodities as well. Basically the whole inflation trade is almost over IMO. The fact that there is zero engagement on this post says it all IMO.
@fallacyalarm You know my opinion... we're in the age of Narcissisms. What you want to avoid at all cost is the "be whatever you want to be no matter how self-destructive it is" dogma of our time.
People who want to raise taxes, either: 1. Don't pay any taxes anyway 2. Already made their money 3. Have no ambition 4. Work for government/government subsidized biz 5. Trust the government to spend wisely (LOL!) 6. Hate capitalism 7. Don't trust themselves more than they…
@fallacyalarm It depends on how much control governments are able to maintain over social media and entertainment media. Look at the current fight over TikTok, for example. I think AI is going to decentralize the production of effective propaganda by dramatically lowering the cost, too.
Maybe try zooming out for more perspective....
Tell me you're in a debt spiral without telling me you're in a debt spiral 🤯😱
@fallacyalarm Totally true. When our children were little we had much bigger demands... house, cars, travel, education, etc. Def inflationary.
There are people who are wrong once in a while. There are people who are wrong as often as they are right. And then there is a small minority of nitwits so clueless that they would drink bleach if enough of the pet journalists of the political class told them it would avert…
The most insidious form of climate denial is no longer, "It's not happening," but the belief that incremental or tech solutions will solve this crisis. 1/6
I love @RonBaronAnalyst but always remember no one really knows what the stock will do in the near term. There is no way to call a bottom. The one lesson you should take away from the insane amounts of negativity prior the earnings call pushing people to sell is that NO ONE KNOWS…
@fallacyalarm The rate part is meaningless. The real job for a CB is to manage bank and other TBTF bail outs and allow politicians to stay out of this messy business.
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