actuary | creator of https://t.co/BTWJrSMjWY | co-creator of https://t.co/HNxUmLCtpq |
you can also find me at bsky under the same handleinpredictable.com Los AngelesJoined July 2013
Two point success rate by season and yard line (reg + postseason).
In 2023 and 2024, there were *70* two-point tries at yard lines other than the two.
If you are not careful, this could sway your two-point math
NFL Big Data Bowl 2026 - Prediction
In this competition, you will build models to predict player movement after the ball is thrown, using pre-pass tracking data. Test your algorithms on live NFL games!
💰 $50,000 Prize Pool
⏰ Entry Deadline: Nov 26, 2025
kaggle.com/competitions/n…
We are live with the 2026 Big Data Bowl #BigDataBowl
Participants can sign up for two competitions, one a leaderboard and the other a more traditional analytics competition.
This year's task: predict player movement when the ball is in the air
With conference play getting underway this week for many leagues, we've put together projections for who will win each league! Here are the power conferences, starting with the ACC which looks likely to come down to Pitt or Stanford:
Add this to the SPORTS 101 course, an entry level course that coincidentally has 101 things that we need to teach our pre-teens about how Random Variation works in sports and life
This section of the course is called: Momentum, Schmomentum
Add this to the SPORTS 101 course, an entry level course that coincidentally has 101 things that we need to teach our pre-teens about how Random Variation works in sports and life
This section of the course is called: Momentum, Schmomentum
NFL kickers are an insane 31-for-37 (84%) from 50+ yards so far this season. That's a huge jump in the % of kicks coming from that range (more than 1-in-4 FGs) *and* a much higher FG% than last year on long 3s. A league taking and making more long threes?!
Sounds familiar 🤔😁
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151K Followers 1K FollowingNBA Analyst at The Ringer. NYT Best-selling author of Sprawlball, Professor at University of Texas. Formerly VP at Spurs, IG: @kirkgoldsberry
41K Followers 1K Following🏈 @Unexpected_Pts newsletter/pod. Previously Data Scientist @PFF. Stats are numbers, numbers are nerds, nerds are losers. Therefore, stats are losers
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