Kalani Seymore @kalworkx
ucla economics | macro, rates, central banks Joined April 2024-
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From @katie_martin_fx column in today’s @FT — a must read. So much for the Fed’s forward policy guidance: What I find fascinating is that people I respect, both economists and market participants, are all over the place as a group when it comes to their thinking on both what the…
This is also going to be a huge issue for us competing with any other developed or developing nation as a manufacturing exporter: our median wage is just vastly higher than every other G-7 economy, let alone the rest of the world.
This is also going to be a huge issue for us competing with any other developed or developing nation as a manufacturing exporter: our median wage is just vastly higher than every other G-7 economy, let alone the rest of the world.
imho it's pretty simple: (1) immigration (2) growth-friendly macroeconomic policy
imho it's pretty simple: (1) immigration (2) growth-friendly macroeconomic policy
I know folks have grumbled about "data dependent policy" but imho it's working as it should. The Fed has loosely described its reaction function to us and the outputs changed as the inputs (inflation trajectory) changed.
I know folks have grumbled about "data dependent policy" but imho it's working as it should. The Fed has loosely described its reaction function to us and the outputs changed as the inputs (inflation trajectory) changed.
Get a lot of reaction to the inflation data. Am struck by how sure so many are when those who look at the data the closest are unconvinced or unsure. Some perspective: 1) inflation, or the pace at which prices are rising has moderated 2) it tends to moderate more in 2nd half…
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807K Followers 836 Following Global investment manager. Technology provider. Helping more and more people experience financial well-being. Disclosures: https://t.co/kFpM6Ep2gnThere is no such thing as a “good” recession. Sadly, inflation affects a 100% of the population and a rise in unemployment affects a much smaller percent. However, recession are indiscriminate in the pain they inflict and create deep scars. Inflation is corrosive and needs to be…
@DianeSwonk Thank you for responding. Paying 3% more for bread, gas, and not defaulting on credit commitments beats unemployment.
Two things are true: 1/ The gap in US and western Europe GDP per capita overstates the differential in quality of life between the two, perhaps by a lot. 2/ This gap has been exacerbated by the US adopting better countercyclical macro policies over the past 2 decades.
This is not great inflation news: the disinflation in market rents proved to be really short lived
Recent high CPI rent inflation should (still) not be surprising. The gap between market rents and paid rents peaked in July 2022 at 15pp, and has since closed to 8pp. The rate at which paid rents (CPI) catches up to market rents is what we see as CPI rent inflation.
@mattyglesias Average real earned income isn't faring so well. Well below the pre-pandemic trend. And significantly below the pandemic high.
@mattyglesias Can you do the one where we don't pretend the 1% getting record bonuses and raises don't skew the numbers
The bigger picture silliness here is that Trump’s entire approach of using a trade war to revive US industry failed, while Biden’s use of targeted subsidies has led to a factory construction boom. Yet Trump’s circle is still contemplating extreme measures to curb trade deficits.
NEW: Trump economic advisers — led by Lighthizer — discussing ways to devalue the dollar if they win the presidency The idea is to boost exports and reduce the trade deficit, but risks abound from inflation to foreign retaliation
imho it's pretty simple: (1) immigration (2) growth-friendly macroeconomic policy
What's the secret to the success of the US economy recently?
I was just the Under Secretary for Economic Affairs at the U.S. Commerce Department. Here's the economic research that was really helpful to us. (Thank you @mattyglesias for the opportunity to guest-post!) slowboring.com/p/the-economic…
@esaagar you can never be truly free of the system bc you can never be fully off the grid borders get invaded: who pays for defense? ppl get sick: who pays for elderly/poor hospital care? companies exists: who pays for worker education? ppl eat: who regulates food safety? etc
🧵 On Those Classic Cultural Twitter Accounts Someone on here questioned why I would say that accounts like the one below are dog whistles for white supremacy. Well, ok. Let's do this.
I find this concern about manufacturing subsidies for foreign companies operating here to be odd. Americans can learn from foreign companies that have specialty know how. Americans involved with plant construction can go build the next plant even better.
@TheStalwart @talmonsmith The incoherence of protectionism: we are now subsidizing a foreign company. @scottlincicome
Two kinds of people in the world: those who know that PCE auto insurance is calculated differently than CPI auto insurance, and those who don't
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