mudchute fox @mudchutefox

personal trading diary. talking to myself so... you got it Joined January 2020

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Scott Skyrm @ScottSkyrm

11 hours ago

Dallas Fed Pres Lorie Logan gave a speech Thursday about modernizing the Fed's target policy rate. The Fed currently targets the federal funds rate, which is an antiquated rate from yesteryear when banks were the primary driver of credit in the economy

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Rishi Mishra @aRishisays

11 hours ago

@Fullcarry @BlacklionCTA @BenKizemchuk @JaredKubin @ScottSkyrm @KastoRepo @RepoInsight Agreed. Definitely on the steeper part of the demand curve as indicated by the reaction of repo rates to +/- 100bn change in reserves! My preferred ratio to track is Reserves vs Privately Held USTs (chart below) or Bank Assets.

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Jens Nordvig @jnordvig

4 days ago

We wrote about this back in August, and this shift remains in motion homepage.exantedata.com/february-newsl…

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mudchute fox @mudchutefox

5 days ago

Ottima lettura su rivoluzione US shale: 1) Dominanza export greggio e LNG USA; 2) disimpegno militare ME sostituito da un uso strategico delle leve energetiche; 3) effetti su mercati regionali: Europa più vulnerabile. Cina più autonoma con strumenti finanziari in CNY

Domenico De Giorgio, EU. Capre Diem (not a typo). @degiorgiod

5 days ago

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CME Group Interest Rates @Interest_Rates

a week ago

Dec25 SOFR-Fed Funds spread falls to new low of -9 bps, indicating expectations that higher overnight funding costs will persist/increase into the turn.

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Patrick Saner @patrick_saner

7 days ago

But short-term bills move almost in tandem with central bank policy rates. That makes government budgets much more sensitive to monetary policy and creates a strong incentive to push for lower rates.

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mudchute fox @mudchutefox

a week ago

in an environment of exahusted paper assets (equity ATH, credit spreads AT tight, risky sovereign, private-credit not M2M), currency debasement and inflation targetting set aside (fiscal dominance) real assets/paper-related 👇

©️redit From Ⓜ️acro to Ⓜ️icro @Credit_Junk

2 weeks ago

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Jay Kahn @jstatistic

3 weeks ago

And the data says no! Hedge funds barely increases their sponsored borrowing. But, with the corporate tax day on the 16th MMFs pulled back in a major way across markets, likely contributing to the spike. So sponsored wasn't the driver, but the general withdrawal of cash was.

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mudchute fox @mudchutefox

2 weeks ago

great summary of Sep 17th FOMC

Domenico De Giorgio, EU. Capre Diem (not a typo). @degiorgiod

2 weeks ago

great summary of Sep 17th FOMC

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Brad Setser @Brad_Setser

2 weeks ago

The August increase in the tariffs didn't lead America's trade partners to lower their export prices to try keep US market share. Rather the contrary. Import prices ticked up. h/t @JosephPolitano

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JustDario 🏊‍♂️ @DarioCpx

2 weeks ago

How many GPUs did $NVDA truly sell and how many were “GPU lease” secret deals $NVDA cut when its 6 major clients were stuffed of GPUs they couldn’t buy more so $NVDA started to rent its own GPUs? According to my calculations $NVDA might have misstated more than 25bn$ in revenues

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Sahil Mehta @Gamma_Blast_

3 weeks ago

SOFR-RRP spread at 17bps is usually where it prints when there are temporary repo spikes due to various factors, if it sticks at these levels as a "new normal" then that would be signs of excess liquidity drying up, only been a week so far but worth monitoring this

Sahil Mehta @Gamma_Blast_

3 weeks ago

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JohannesBorgen @jeuasommenulle

3 weeks ago

First you need to discard all the yields coming from futures contracts: these allow the delivery of cash bonds in the future, but you can deliver all bonds from a basket. So the prices (and yields) quoted are influenced by the cheapest to deliver bond – which can change every day

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Kamil Kovar @CrisisStudent

3 weeks ago

If you really want to see how the economy did, look at the real final domestic demand, which as @OliverRakau already pointed out was pretty weak in 2025H1, marking a slowdown from 2024. 3/

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Guy LeBas @lebas_janney

3 weeks ago

FWIW, I lean to 25 with a stronger commitment to a string of cuts as the base case. But I'd still give a 50bps cut ~1/3 chance qualitatively. Maybe we get there post-CPI.

Guy LeBas @lebas_janney

3 weeks ago

FWIW, I lean to 25 with a stronger commitment to a string of cuts as the base case. But I'd still give a 50bps cut ~1/3 chance qualitatively. Maybe we get there post-CPI.

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CME Group Interest Rates @Interest_Rates

3 weeks ago

Sep25 SOFR-Fed Funds spread falls to new contract low of -6.25 bps. Upward pressure on overnight #SOFR has driven spreads lower and ICS volumes higher in recent days. SR1-ZQ spread volume of 261K on Friday was the 10th largest since the pair began trading in 2018.

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mudchute fox @mudchutefox

3 weeks ago

LT stuff worth bear in mind: - JPBs rising yields & JP Institutionals balance sheet - USD/USD assets safe haven role (ASW spreads) & carries into US assets - FED's independence perception (USD) - ECB's long role of closing spreads (EUR) vs BoE

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Gianluca c1 bis @gianlucac1bis

a month ago

There is an enormous risk that the long end debases if PCE and CPI are showing further upward trend Equities are gonna be vunerable also if long end debase together with the inevitable slowdown of earnigs as tariffs begin to weigh on numbers 4/n @ThManfredi @Phastidio

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dMacro/dBS @dMacro_dBS

2 months ago

We all love to extrapolate moves in TIPS breakevens, especially us geeky rates folks. Here’s my 2c: TIPS are primarily a LAGGING (and shitty, excuse my French) cyclical asset. Credit spreads are at all-time tights, equities are at record highs, the ratio of cyclicals (exc.…

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Phil Magness @PhilWMagness

2 months ago

Update for the Tarrif-Bots who claim this proves domestic retail prices did not increase: Harvard Pricing Lab allows you to further separate domestic retail goods into tariff-responsive and non-responsive subsets. Turns out tariff-responsive domestic prices rose with imports.