Rev Cap @rev__cap_

Will they make every mistake that Arthur Burns lamented? “Fed’s Powell Ready to Support Job Market, Even If It Means Lingering Inflation” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

we are not a serious country

Donald Schneider @DonFSchneider

3 years ago

Hadn’t realized how little budget related work the Senate Budget committee was actually doing. 28 hearings, 14 on climate change and only 2 on the actual budget.

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Me: “I wonder how journalists feel about the current market” Journalists:

President Biden claims that wealthier Americans pay lower tax rates than middle class families. Fact check: False 👇

yep - a record high US household net worth. So much for excess savings are gone...

Bill @wabuffo

3 years ago

Is it gonna be an all-time record for US household wealth when the 2023 Q4 Fed Z1 report comes out later today?

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@rev_cap

It is nearly impossible for the average American to buy a home today. Housing affordability is a national crisis. Here are 48 charts from @NewsLambert that explain the US housing market. There are some INSANE charts here. See Charts: resiclubanalytics.com/c/48-charts-ex…

@rev_cap Cost savings w AI will be invested and create employment elsewhere. Has been the case with every productivity enhancing tech in history

Policy asymmetry is the Fed Put

Ed Bradford @Fullcarry

3 years ago

The central theme of the paper Waller references in his speech is that the effects of QT have been much milder than QE. I think I have come up with why :)

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So you loyal followers going back a few years know when I said we are speaking Portuguese and don’t realize it yet, you get it.

Same premise as in 2020 recessions don’t have major price crashes unless credit breaks first

Patrick Barkio @P_DiddyBarkio

3 years ago

@GeorgeGammon @LoganMohtashami Be sure to ask him what happens to prices if unemployment hits a certain reasonably expected high in a recession. Make him answer. We don't need a repeat of every other housing market debate. x.com/P_DiddyBarkio/…

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There are weird things happening with shelter inflation. In January, growth of Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER) exceeded CPI Rent by .2% (MOM). This is the largest gap - by far - since 1995 (when the BLS changed how it calculated OER). Reminder that shelter = +40% of Core CPI

The blue line is how people think economic cycles work, and then the red line just comes along and steamrolls that view. #FiscalDominance

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🎯

EB (Derogatory, Respectfully) @EllliotttB

5 years ago

Really gonna be wild when mortgage rates hit 7% and housing don’t stop because everyone buying their homes straight cash, except opendoor, whose carrying costs about to octuple

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I'm done with @Google. I know many good individuals working there, but as a company they've irrevocably lost my trust. I'm "moving out". Here's why: I've been reading Google's Gemini damage control posts. I think they're simply not telling the truth. For one, their text-only product has the same (if not worse) issues. And second, if you know a bit about how these models are built, you know you don't get these "incorrect" answers through one-off innocent mistakes. Gemini's outputs reflect the many, many, FTE-years of labeling efforts, training, fine-tuning, prompt design, QA/verification -- all iteratively guided by the team who built it. You can also be certain that before releasing it, many people have tried the product internally, that many demos were given to senior PMs and VPs, that they all thought it was fine, and that they all ultimately signed off on the release. With that prior, the balance of probabilities is strongly against the outputs being an innocent bug -- as @Googlepubpolicy is now trying to spin it: Gemini is a product that functions exactly as designed, and an accurate reflection of the values people who built it. Those values appear to include a desire to reshape the world in a specific way that is so strong that it allowed the people involved to rationalize to themselves that it's not just acceptable but desirable to train their AI to prioritize ideology ahead of giving user the facts. To revise history, to obfuscate the present, and to outright hide information that doesn't align with the company's (staff's) impression of what is "good". I don't care if some of that ideology may or may not align with your or my thinking about what would make the world a better place: for anyone with a shred of awareness of human history it should be clear how unbelievably irresponsible it is to build a system that aims to become an authoritative compendium of human knowledge (remember Google's mission statement?), but which actually prioritizes ideology over facts. History is littered with many who have tried this sort of moral flexibility "for the greater good"; rather than helping, they typically resulted in decades of setbacks (and tens of millions of victims). Setting social irresponsibility aside, in a purely business sense, it is beyond stupid to build a product which will explicitly put your company's social agenda before the customer's needs. Think about it: G's Search -- for all its issues -- has been perceived as a good tool, because it focused on providing accurate and useful information. Its mission was aligned with the users' goals ("get me to the correct answer for the stuff I need, and fast!"). That's why we all use(d) it. I always assumed Google's AI efforts would follow the pattern, which would transfer over the user base & lock in another 1-2 decade of dominance. But they've done the opposite. After Gemini, rather than as a user-centric company, Google will be perceived as an activist organization first -- ready to lie to the user to advance their (staff's) social agenda. That's huge. Would you hire a personal assistant who openly has an unaligned (and secret -- they hide the system prompts) agenda, who you fundamentally can't trust? Who strongly believes they know better than you? Who you suspect will covertly lie to you (directly or through omission) when your interests diverge? Forget the cookies, ads, privacy issues, or YouTube content moderation; Google just made 50%+ of the population run through this scenario and question the trustworthiness of the core business and the people running it. And not at the typical financial ("they're fleecing me!") level, but ideological level ("they hate people like me!"). That'll be hard to reset, IMHO. What about the future? Take a look at Google's AI Responsibility Principles (ai.google/responsibility…) and ask yourself what would Search look like if the staff who brought you Gemini was tasked to interpret them & rebuild it accordingly? Would you trust that product? Would you use it? Well, with Google's promise to include Gemini everywhere, that's what we'll be getting (technologyreview.com/2024/02/08/108…). In this brave new world, every time you run a search you'll be asking yourself "did it tell me the truth, or did it lie, or hide something?". That's lethal for a company built around organizing information. And that's why, as of this weekend, I've started divorcing my personal life and taking my information out of the Google ecosystem. It will probably take a ~year (having invested in nearly everything, from Search to Pixel to Assistant to more obscure things like Voice), but has to be done. Still, really, really sad...

Google Public Policy @googlepubpolicy

3 years ago

Our AI image generation feature got it wrong. Here's more on what happened and how we're working to fix it. blog.google/products/gemin…

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We are so early...

Cem Karsan 🥐 @jam_croissant

3 years ago

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$BXMT

@pekwat @rev_cap x.com/JigsawCap/stat…

Jigsaw @JigsawCap

4 years ago

To anyone that thinks soft landing with 2% inflation is realistic, I encourage you to read this book This is an important summary of the inflation / labor issue from the The Great Demographic Reversal (Goodhart, Pradham)

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South Korea semis export rose the most since 2017 Call it a bubble but fundamentals are really strong