wonkmonk @wonkmonk_
"The ultimate, hidden truth of the world is that it is something that we make, and could just as easily make differently." - David Graeber bit.ly/3kxa1EN Joined July 2010-
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Core PCE inflation, annualized rates: 1 month: 3.9% 3 months: 4.4% 6 months: 3.0% 12 months: 2.8%
The PCE-based Ecumenical underlying inflation measure was 3.0% in March, down 0.1pp from February. This is the median of 24 different measures: 8 different bases over 3, 6 and 12 months. FWIW, my own judgment is underlying inflation is 2.5 to 3.0%, probably top of that range.
Is inflation morally wrong? economist.com/finance-and-ec… Workers think so. Economists disagree Robert Shiller: Why Do People Dislike Inflation? (1996) web.archive.org/web/2021032219… Stefanie Stantcheva: Why Do We Dislike Inflation? (2024) brookings.edu/articles/why-d… web.archive.org/web/2024032802…
Krugman: "inflation, it seems to have broken. This is especially clear if you measure inflation the way other countries do. by this measure inflation has already been cut to roughly 2 percent, the Fed’s inflation target" nytimes.com/2024/04/09/opi… bls.gov/cpi/research-s…
Tax cuts for the wealthy only benefit the rich: debunking trickle-down economics (2023) lse.ac.uk/research/resea…
The core PCE price index rose 0.32% in March and was up 2.8% from a year earlier January's gain of 0.45% was revised to a gain of 0.50%. The 6-month annualized rate of core PCE inflation held steady at 3% in March The 3-month rate was 4.4%, up from 3.7% in February
1/7 "China’s overseas investment is heading for an eight-year high as its dominant firms build more factories abroad, a shift that could soften criticism of Beijing’s export drive." The numbers are still small, but this is a good thing. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @economics
Market has taken US Q1 GDP as a big miss with stagflation narrative popped up in many mails... However the real story is about a more stable and healthy GDP still, with less volatile component final sales to domestic purchases growing at +3.1%, not coincident with stagflation.
But perhaps the most important news in this release is that core PCE inflation was up at a 3.7% annual rate in Q1. That is *much* higher than the 2.1% the Survey of Professional Forecasters expected in Feb. I'll have more to say about inflation with tomorrow's monthly numbers.
GDP growth came in a bit below expectations at a 1.6% annual rate in the first quarter. But much of the slowdown was in non-inertial items like inventories (-0.35pp) and net exports (-0.86pp). The better signal of final sales to private domestic purchasers was 3.1%.
FTC votes to ban noncompete agreements thehill.com/business/46154… "The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) voted 3-2 Tuesday to ban noncompete agreements that prevent tens of millions of employees from working for competitors or starting a competing business after they leave a job."
Is the Boom-and-Bust Business Cycle Dead? nytimes.com/2024/04/11/bus… There is a growing view that the U.S. business cycle has changed (for better) in a more diversified economy.
John Plender: The overlooked threats to the global financial system ft.com/content/0b78c6…
🇺🇸Ouch! #Housing starts plunge 14.7% to 1.32mn in March: ⚠️Near low since Aug '23 ⛔️All regions ex West⏬ ⛔️-4.2% y/y 🏠Single-family consolidating ⛔️ -12.4% m/m to 1022k ✅+21% y/y 🏙️Multi-fam plunging ⛔️-22% m/m to 299k ⛔️-44% y/y 🚨Low since Covid/Aug '17
"Is U.S. Government Going Broke?" Time Magazine Cover in 1972 (U.S. Federal Debt to GDP 33%) LOL. For the record U.S. debt/GDP is over 3x higher funny excerpt from my interview w/ @mark_dow (airing shortly)
NEW BLOG (again in Q&A format): TEN POPULAR QUESTIONS ON MONETARY POLICY, plus a bonus question on "fiscal dominance". No paywall. Please share it because it helps me convince @TS_Lombard I should be putting this stuff out for free on here 😉 blogs.tslombard.com/tenquestionsmo…
Is inflation reaccelerating, getting stuck or are we on a bumpy path down. The diffusion index of % of prices rising vs falling favors the latter--after soaring to >90 in 2022 it fell to 21.6 in Feb despite upside surprises. This was b/w 90-100 for years in the 70s...
Is inflation reaccelerating, getting stuck or are we on a bumpy path down. The diffusion index of % of prices rising vs falling favors the latter--after soaring to >90 in 2022 it fell to 21.6 in Feb despite upside surprises. This was b/w 90-100 for years in the 70s... https://t.co/H2fSewFC11
It's true that the "last mile" in reducing CPI inflation may take time. But that's because it's driven by OER, an imputed number reflecting stale prices. And that's a dumb thing to base policy on. If you don't use OER--the European HICP does not--this is what it looks like.
The "excess" core CPI inflation right now is much less broad than what we saw in 2022. In 2022, inflationary pressures hit many categories. In contrast, right now, only two are stronger than we'd expect under 2% PCE pre-pandemic: housing--the lion's share--and auto insurance.
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GDP growth came in a bit below expectations at a 1.6% annual rate in the first quarter. But much of the slowdown was in non-inertial items like inventories (-0.35pp) and net exports (-0.86pp). The better signal of final sales to private domestic purchasers was 3.1%.
Bull Market Behavior Checklist Update: Breadth components are the drag on this market...
Market has taken US Q1 GDP as a big miss with stagflation narrative popped up in many mails... However the real story is about a more stable and healthy GDP still, with less volatile component final sales to domestic purchases growing at +3.1%, not coincident with stagflation.
Green has begun to replace yellow... this is a positive for the markets
Using LLaMA 3 70B on @GroqInc to instantly refactor and document code. The implications for software engineering are wild. Gone are the days of waiting on an LLM for suggestions or code changes. Now, it's an instant feedback loop. Demo link in the comments:
Energy has been underperforming drastically since the 2022 bottom.
Friends Don't Let Friends buy US Treasury Bonds This chart says it all I am friends with financial advisor at Morgan Stanley who only invests in bonds That's not conservative at all Inflation makes the real return on bonds worth less than 2% with equity like volatilty
Past performance, although imperfect, is the best predictor we have for a strategy's future success. How do we achieve that? Historical data and various tests. Here is a walkthrough of the key methods I use to run seven live algorithms (explained simply):
2/ Why did US policymakers do this when Brzezinski so specifically warned them not to? Perhaps the best explanation I have seen came from this quote from a 2017 article in The Atlantic, titled "Power Causes Brain Damage."
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$SPY $QQQ $NAMO Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator Nasdaq Percentage of Stocks Above 50SMA Nasdaq Percentage of Stocks Above 20SMA These are all levels where significant bounces and rallies have historically occurred. Much love 💙🍌🍌🍌
It’s all about buybacks folks
$SPY $QQQ This was just the first test of the weekly 13EMA But so many freaked out The first test in bull trends is actually bullish as highlighted below If u don’t use the 13EMA I feel bad for you 💙
Great model here. •The average pullback during an election year is about -13%. •Since 2000, each time the pullback exceeded 10% (3/7) we pulled back over 15%. ( -17%, -48%, -34%) •Overall 11 out of 18 occurrences bottomed before 10%. •The average pullback under 10% is…
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