Work @work_1978
Futures Trader since 2003. Joined April 2019-
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FX. What they do not want to do is give speculators a totally free ride. They like to get speculators levered up at a new level, then stomp on them if possible. The signal isn't "this is the wrong level forever" but "this is the CONTEXT where we are prepared to inflict pain as it
The increased # of likes and the absence of but-shelter replies to this tweet vs. last month's identical tweet tells me that higher-for-longer is now very much baked into market expectations. 🤔
The increased # of likes and the absence of but-shelter replies to this tweet vs. last month's identical tweet tells me that higher-for-longer is now very much baked into market expectations. 🤔
Core m/m SA at 0.36% above every single economist expectation above, which were already too high for the Fed. No "confidence" gained by the Fed for 3 months now.
High real yields no longer an impediment to Gold Gold was previously correlated with changes in real rates, as higher TIPS yields provided an alternative to gold as a store of value during inflationary periods. That correlation has broken down in the past year, and despite the…
The San Siro football stadium in Milan has a spiral walkway, when it is being used it creates an optical illusion that the whole building is rotating 📹 patryklvska
@UrbanKaoboy @mjmauboussin We will see a similar concentration of market power as we saw with search engines. Remember that virtual assistants (Siri, Alexa) brought the promise of “$0-cost revolutionary web-scanning tech that immediately answers any question asked by the user”. Before that, Internet…
$NVDA CEO's advice to students: "resilience matters in success...I don't know how to teach it to you except for, 'I hope suffering happens to you'..greatness comes from character & character...is formed out of people who suffered..I wish upon you ample doses of pain &…
What many of you need to realise is that for most traders, institutional or retail, a win ratio of 50.1% is already good. (it's why risk mgmt is so impt) Now think about trying to sell a newsletter where half of what you write is wrong. Does curation/editing equate obfuscation?
Found a link beyond the Bloomberg paywall. Important read. Corroborates many of the same risks I highlighted in my piece from last week about Private Credit. themiddlemarket.com/news-analysis/…
Wordle 957 1/6 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 @dampedspring Pretty sure it was a rugby team, Andy?!
That the restrictiveness of FF is reduced to a residual places certain risks to that interpretation, especially at a time when activity is fairly robust and the collective thought is that inflation is beat. Waller at the same speech highlighted this risk to which he is watching.
@DsrPrivate Wordle 955 X/6 ⬜⬜⬜🟩⬜ ⬜⬜⬜🟩⬜ ⬜⬜⬜🟩⬜ ⬜⬜🟨🟩🟩 ⬜🟨⬜🟩🟩 🟩🟩⬜🟩🟩 Nooooooooo!!!😭😭
AI bubble: “you wanna see how crazy I can get?” This is just NVDA. Wait until every sell side covered name is a share winner being modeled to take a “percentage of worldwide IT spending”.
AI bubble: “you wanna see how crazy I can get?” This is just NVDA. Wait until every sell side covered name is a share winner being modeled to take a “percentage of worldwide IT spending”. https://t.co/xRKKLFWqGG
This is hilarious, a succinct and articulate warning that the West is making the same Peronist mistakes which impoverished Argentina is a total mic-drop moment in Davos "Collectivist experiments are never the solution to the problems that affect the citizens of the world.…
This is hilarious, a succinct and articulate warning that the West is making the same Peronist mistakes which impoverished Argentina is a total mic-drop moment in Davos "Collectivist experiments are never the solution to the problems that affect the citizens of the world.…
ETF may unfortunately mean “institutional whale exit plan to retail investors” - let’s see…
The Saudis understand their structural security disadvantage to Iran & recent events highlight China’s unwillingness & lack of capacity to project hard power in the region. MbS has played a good hand, his next round is more likely to look like the below. Good take.
The Saudis understand their structural security disadvantage to Iran & recent events highlight China’s unwillingness & lack of capacity to project hard power in the region. MbS has played a good hand, his next round is more likely to look like the below. Good take.
@sdav1986 @vixologist @Mike_Hunt_Sr @l1quid1ty I wish I can retweet this 100 times. It’s been what I have been preaching for over a year now (like a mad man). Short vol exposure has never been this high in Vega terms. Part of it is definitely the issuance that has a peak knockin point. The other part is simply the large…
@dampedspring @mredmond88 @TheWineSwine @colbyLsmith The criticism (obvious to me but maybe others disagree) is that UST is interfering in monetary policy by running historically anomalous changes to bill share when there’s no real reason for doing so. Of course the Fed should just counteract that too, but still doesn’t absolve UST…
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And for manufacturing it is also uncorrelated and lagging.
@RichardTCasey Fintwit to Yellen be like
@DsrPrivate There is really so little justification for 44% bills on the issuance composition given we are not in exogenous times for the economy, term premiums are still super low vs history and yield curve remains inverted.
Many moons ago I was asked by many followers which #commodity was the one to own when commods start taking off (as they do now). A supply shortage is always expressed by inverted (backwarded) price curves ie front more expensive that forwards.
The commodities you DONT want to own, are those in full carry (contango). Spot is cheaper as supply is plentiful and the producer struggles to store it coz storage isn’t infinite. Remember crude going negative? Even though this was an extreme it tells u how it works
How to identify a #commodity which is about to puke 🤮 . The spot month is discounted more than its full cost of carry (storage/insurance/finance) vs the next month. That’s a clear sign of oversupply and price screams “buy me coz I dunno where to put this stuff anymore”
The most bullish markets in commodities are ALWAYS supply driven (shortage of the stuff while demand is almost inelastic and substitution is limited). See #cocoa. Demand driven markets get killed when prices reach a level where demand decelerates. Target supply deficits
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