Alex Malitas, CFA @AlexMalitas
Macro @BiancoResearch New York Joined September 2026-
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@EricBalchunas Doesn't get much more painful than that
Rational Dissent Episode 012. What the 'K' is Going on? Available on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, and more. Markets and portfolios are keeping top earners spending, while many paycheck-to-paycheck households fall behind as prices have risen faster than wages since COVID. Chapters 00:00 - K Shaped Setup 01:59 - Income Deciles Breakdown 02:38 - Where Money Comes From 03:29 - Spending Essentials Gap 04:50 - Who Drives Consumption 06:02 - Affordability Poll Reality 07:45 - Wages Versus Inflation 09:27 - Stocks Versus Sentiment 12:45 - Can Policy Fix It 14:42 - Fed Limits Fiscal Trap 20:08 - If Markets Roll Over 24:44 - Social Unrest Risk 28:28 - Advice For Leaders 30:17 - Deficits And Inflation Loop 33:03 - Wrap Up
@donnelly_brent @TheEconomist live look of the @biancoresearch team right now
If this can’t save bonds, nothing will
@KeithMcCullough CCCs are what to focus on. x.com/AlexMalitas/st…
Agree. CCC is only about 9% of the junk market and something like 6 issuers are driving most of the move in CCCs. Everything above it still isn't moving much.
Since Q4 2024 Bitcoin: $84,000 to $84,000 Gold: $2700 to $4100 USA National Debt: $35T to $40T
@Tradure24 This is certainly accurate. The difference is the concentration of ownership. The bottom 50% of U.S. wealth owns about 0.6% of the stock market. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WFRBSB5…
Great example of the K-shaped economy in 2026... Wall Street sees rising equities boosting wealth, but most of the country doesn't own equities. Consumer sentiment is at an all-time low because they care about real dollars. 1/2
US consumer confidence is collapsing. The Consumer Confidence Index dropped -6.7 points in September, to 81.9, its lowest since April 2014. This marks its 4th consecutive monthly decline, totaling -11.2 points. The Present Situation Index fell -7.9 points, to 109.3, its lowest
@NorthstarCharts Does this chart more likely measure the real return of gold? When deflated against CPI (inflation), wages look flatter, which is a different problem. The current decline in this series mainly reflects gold's rally.
Follow-up to this. What changed in 1982? Beyond Volcker's inflation battle, the U.S. economy became more stable, while global trade and financialization drove growth.
More context on this. Here are expansions back to 1858. The full series averages 41 months of expansion, but before 1945, expansions rarely lasted 3 years. In modern economic cycles (post-Volcker inflation battle), expansions tend to last significantly longer in the US.
AI-related stocks (defined by the JPM basket) now make up 49% of the S&P 500. Those same 41 companies account for about two-thirds of the S&P 500’s year-to-date market cap change.
Higher rates inject more money into the economy, that money gets allocated to equities, and the effects of passive management drive valuations higher.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are hitting new all-time highs despite treasury yields being near 25-year highs Something’s not adding up
More context on this. Here are expansions back to 1858. The full series averages 41 months of expansion, but before 1945, expansions rarely lasted 3 years. In modern economic cycles (post-Volcker inflation battle), expansions tend to last significantly longer in the US.
The U.S. economy has now gone 78 straight months without a recession, the 6th-longest expansion since 1854, per NBER. That's well above the long-term average of about 49 months, and the median of about 38. The record: 128 months, from 2009 to 2020. To pass it, this expansion
A few days ago, I argued that excessive debt wasn't driving yields higher (link). The repost is my argument for why yields are moving higher, and why they are no longer expensive. x.com/biancoresearch…
For years, yields were below where the economy said they should be. That is no longer the case. x.com/i/article/2107…
I've been arguing that the question for OpenAI & Anthropic is how much value they can generate above and beyond current projections. Whether it's 80/20, 90/10, or some other mix. Most tasks (both prompt-response and workflow automation) can be accomplished with much cheaper models. GrokBot & Muse are examples. Neither requires frontier models. They require the harness level above it to be considered thoughtfully. If the frontier-capable models capture only frontier-level tasks...then the frontier duopoly holds only a small piece of the pie. What Google, Amazon, Meta & Microsoft are spending on is the capacity to spin up use cases. Don't be surprised if 'personal assistants' is more than a fad and becomes a big part of the 'why' behind the spending.
The AI capex boom is accelerating at a staggering pace. Spending by Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft & Oracle is expected to jump from $412 billion in 2025 to $789 billion in 2026. That's a 92% increase in just one year. By 2029, estimated capex from these 5 hyperscalers is
We often highlight these two charts. One shows that inflation has outpaced average hourly earnings since April 2020. The second shows how Wall Street views inflation versus how the average person does. The average person sees the prices of what they buy as 30% higher. Economists & Wall Street see that yoy inflation isn't 9% anymore
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