The Macro Narrator @MacroNarrator
Former, present and future Self • Data driven personal opinions No investment advice Joined October 2022-
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Today’s JPMorgan Treasury client survey showed one of the biggest weekly shifts (+8%) into outright bond SHORTS over past five years Thu: ADP 😮💨 Fri: Payrolls 👀
Great job Aahan! Very glad to see you achieve so much💪
Great job Aahan! Very glad to see you achieve so much💪
This is really interesting. In my view, the White House is laser focused on unleashing the massive amount of wealth stored in US housing equity. I fully expect them to find a way to let the floodgates open. Whatever it takes. (Also, no more detox talk!)
This is really interesting. In my view, the White House is laser focused on unleashing the massive amount of wealth stored in US housing equity. I fully expect them to find a way to let the floodgates open. Whatever it takes. (Also, no more detox talk!) https://t.co/ZgZ2yUoe6l
CTA positioning in US equities officially sits in the 100th percentile and is now max long. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
People sell it as if Trump invented a free lunch. Mind-blowing. Imagine these tariff revenues as VAT receipts — people would be rioting. Instead it’s buried in trade policy. How long before someone notices the bill?
10y yield telling you that fed cutting here is not a policy mistake. Historic rule of thumb is that every 25 bp FFR cut lowers: -2y by 17 bps -10y by 10 bps -7 bp bull steepener Curve is normal now and this move is almost exactly what you would expect imo.
@therobotjames @mistman78 @darjohn25 @Gingfacekillah @emfxoptions "See that number? That's the bund. It has got some shit to do with Germany but all you need to know is it goes up and down and other cunts trade it" Jamie. Life. 1995
Walmart CEO: We see our cost increase each week as we replenish inventory at post-tariff price levels.
💯
Zervos (in the short list for FED chair) I dusted off the topic of the shadow rate, seen against the Fed's BS in the chart below
The beauty is in the struggle not the outcome …..
The beauty is in the struggle not the outcome …..
Great thread 🙏🏻
At the April lows, investors were convinced tariffs would lead to a deep recession Today, they have removed any tariff impact from their analysis The reality is that the impact is slow, but big (~1-1.5pc NGDP at current run rate!) and coming. Q3 earnings will show it first
Another demographic note: Millennials are aging and a diminishing source of structural housing demand. In the postwar era, US new housing demand has been sustained by two demographic waves: the Baby Boomers and then the Millennials. Between 1975 and 2025, the first-time…
Another demographic note: Millennials are aging and a diminishing source of structural housing demand. In the postwar era, US new housing demand has been sustained by two demographic waves: the Baby Boomers and then the Millennials. Between 1975 and 2025, the first-time… https://t.co/NzsjAmsGXk
JUNE CPI Core CPI +.23% MOM Mostly in line with expectations to slightly cooler. The big story is shelter inflation hitting a multi-year low on a MOM basis... There is more rent disinflation coming (see ZORI collapse below).
In a nutshell, why I think the financial markets should be a bit more worried about August 1 -- it maybe a bluff, but Trump increasingly says the letters setting out the tariff rates are the "deals"
In a nutshell, why I think the financial markets should be a bit more worried about August 1 -- it maybe a bluff, but Trump increasingly says the letters setting out the tariff rates are the "deals"
Our cyclical indicator for the VIX remains biased towards vol higher, while we are entering a seasonally strong period
Great UK summary 👇
Markets are funny things, aren't they?
Markets are funny things, aren't they?
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