The Macro Narrator @MacroNarrator
Former, present and future Self • Data driven personal opinions No investment advice Joined October 2022-
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Confirming a tale of two economies (K-Shape recovery so far)
Confirming a tale of two economies (K-Shape recovery so far)
💯 The trick is to keep breathing and be able to keep the position on the books...
💯 The trick is to keep breathing and be able to keep the position on the books...
Some exercise & trading alpha You know the point during resistance or cardio training when you feel like you're done You quickly start convincing yourself it's time to stop or take a break That's actually when you should push ahead and when the real alpha is achieved Same is…
Bessent and Argentina are going for the confidence shock approach. Milei and almost all of his advisors want to believe that the dislocation was just political, the FX rate is not overvalued, and this will all go away if they do well in the upcoming elections. IDK if Bessent…
Bessent and Argentina are going for the confidence shock approach. Milei and almost all of his advisors want to believe that the dislocation was just political, the FX rate is not overvalued, and this will all go away if they do well in the upcoming elections. IDK if Bessent… https://t.co/xJJoVY9Z2Z
@BickerinBrattle Fully agree with you. This is my model for the breakeven employment. Falling by the month. Before long it will be 0.
That's interesting... linkedin.com/posts/chen-zha…
Bottom line: with a current account deficit and limited reserves (more than all borrowed) Argentina doesn't have the resources to sustain an overvalued exchange rate (that was my view at the start of the year & it hasn't changed). Gotta pay attention to the balance of payments
Russia’s Energy Empire Is Weakening Faster Than You Might Think…! The war on Ukraine has been an immense human tragedy, with hundreds of thousands of lives lost and millions displaced. At the same time, it has reshaped the global balance of power in ways few could have…
💯👇 "Personally, I think because a lot of those guys are extremely passionate and dedicated to their craft, versus the clutter of people who are simply clocking into a job."
💯👇 "Personally, I think because a lot of those guys are extremely passionate and dedicated to their craft, versus the clutter of people who are simply clocking into a job."
Quite an interesting analysis, thank you!
H2 2025 @3F_Research Outlook - published 6/26...The market continues to come to us. -10y flirting with a 3-handle, -3-4 Fed cuts now priced, -Gold making new highs, -S&P 500 making new highs, -Econ data weakening...
Following up on the below, medical care reverts to negative but transportation services remain sticky... x.com/WarrenPies/sta…
Following up on the below, medical care reverts to negative but transportation services remain sticky... x.com/WarrenPies/sta…
Anna Wang, Economist at Bloomberg: Bottom line: The preliminary job revisions flag a strong possibility that the economy entered a recession last year, and recovered after the Fed cut rates in late-2024. Our interpretation of recent data — factoring in our estimate of future…
American exceptionalism Before the report, the government’s payrolls data indicated employers added nearly 1.8 million total jobs in the year through March on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, or an average of 149,000 per month. The revision showed average monthly job growth was…
Despite tariffs, small firms' selling price expectations now point to lower core inflation
Interesting take 👇
August CPI out this Thursday. Two of the biggest surprise upside contributors last month - medical care + transportation services - had the largest positive July seasonal adjustment ever. Watch for reversal of both...Cooler CPI would fuel 50-bp cut odds and push yields lower.
Great post by @Brad_Setser. In a nutshell, in 2008's GFC: + USD & JPY rallied together because of carry unwind (vs EM) rather than "bid to safety", + USD is currently a funding currency on carry trades, + USTs remained a safe heaven, but was mainly from USD recycling.
Great post by @Brad_Setser. In a nutshell, in 2008's GFC: + USD & JPY rallied together because of carry unwind (vs EM) rather than "bid to safety", + USD is currently a funding currency on carry trades, + USTs remained a safe heaven, but was mainly from USD recycling.
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