Mike Singleton, CFA @InvictusMacro
Founder @ Invictus Research | Macroeconomic & Market Strategy Research invictus-research.com Joined September 2021-
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September may be the worst month of the calendar year... But, when stocks finish positive for the month - it's a great leading indicator! Returns through year-end tend to be substantially better than average in a statistically meaningful way Next 3M (avg): +5.0%, Win %: 79%
"China floods the world with cheap exports after Trump's tariffs" Pretty good evidence for why economic forecasting is so difficult Did any mainstream economists have this on their bingo card?
"China floods the world with cheap exports after Trump's tariffs" Pretty good evidence for why economic forecasting is so difficult Did any mainstream economists have this on their bingo card? https://t.co/zaBoVajU1i
‼️M2 money growth accelerates to new cycle-high‼️ Money growth sometimes gets short shrift (for good reason), but it does matter Accelerating M2 growth usually coincides with healthy credit conditions, improving liquidity and above-average returns for stocks
‼️M2 money growth accelerates to new cycle-high‼️ Money growth sometimes gets short shrift (for good reason), but it does matter Accelerating M2 growth usually coincides with healthy credit conditions, improving liquidity and above-average returns for stocks https://t.co/b6mQtWBlww
Import prices are up just +73 basis points (cumulatively) since Liberation Day And yet, companies are clearly indicating substantial input inflation What explains this divergence? And will it result in faster consumer inflation?
Import prices are up just +73 basis points (cumulatively) since Liberation Day And yet, companies are clearly indicating substantial input inflation What explains this divergence? And will it result in faster consumer inflation? https://t.co/hC1unQROTP
How do we know small-caps want lower rates? Check out the inverse correlation between the relative performance of the Russell and the 5y yield In our view, the "key" to a broader market is sustained lower rates $IWM $SPY
How do we know small-caps want lower rates? Check out the inverse correlation between the relative performance of the Russell and the 5y yield In our view, the "key" to a broader market is sustained lower rates $IWM $SPY https://t.co/iw9VhItqPS
Of course, the real economy badly needs lower rates as well Across all modalities, US goods shipments are down 20% since 2022 Yikes
Of course, the real economy badly needs lower rates as well Across all modalities, US goods shipments are down 20% since 2022 Yikes https://t.co/YfHiW6a0os
My two cents Rates always matter. How much depends on the market regime Usually when folks say "rates don't matter right now", what they mean is --> other factors are just swamping the impact for now
My two cents Rates always matter. How much depends on the market regime Usually when folks say "rates don't matter right now", what they mean is --> other factors are just swamping the impact for now https://t.co/KXOXDcwBoC
⁉️Obviously, the big question/risk is: will we go into a recession? ⁉️ Right now, the market is saying: the Fed will cut AND it will work! And through historically similar regimes, stocks tend to compound at a high-teens clip (see the blue line) Sometimes it pays to listen to…
⁉️Obviously, the big question/risk is: will we go into a recession? ⁉️ Right now, the market is saying: the Fed will cut AND it will work! And through historically similar regimes, stocks tend to compound at a high-teens clip (see the blue line) Sometimes it pays to listen to… https://t.co/XcoyiUzOY3
Are we still worried about a weak dollar as a bearish catalyst for risk assets? Historically, a weak dollar has pretty firmly been a tailwind - on both a coincident & a leading basis Don't miss the Daily Edge, where we do deep dives on topics like this all the time ;)
Are we still worried about a weak dollar as a bearish catalyst for risk assets? Historically, a weak dollar has pretty firmly been a tailwind - on both a coincident & a leading basis Don't miss the Daily Edge, where we do deep dives on topics like this all the time ;) https://t.co/jnUyB2dIw2
TARIFF UPDATE In August, we saw tariffs *start* to hit the economic data, with import prices increasing +55 basis points sequentially. A pretty big move Even so, import prices are up just +73 basis points since Liberation Day (67th percentile relative to history) Not enough to…
TARIFF UPDATE In August, we saw tariffs *start* to hit the economic data, with import prices increasing +55 basis points sequentially. A pretty big move Even so, import prices are up just +73 basis points since Liberation Day (67th percentile relative to history) Not enough to… https://t.co/bqUCSsOO9M
"Markets are making all-time highs, how is this possible given layoffs and geopolitics and blah blah blah" Well, the Fed is cutting into meaningful fiscal stimulus in FY 2026
Broadly speaking, credit conditions look great Spreads 👍 Leveraged loan pricing 👍 Credit growth 👍 But in the background, there are some cracks starting to form... BDCs (~private credit) breaking down to new multi-month lows 👀👀 $BIZD
Broadly speaking, credit conditions look great Spreads 👍 Leveraged loan pricing 👍 Credit growth 👍 But in the background, there are some cracks starting to form... BDCs (~private credit) breaking down to new multi-month lows 👀👀 $BIZD https://t.co/fJlabjgbXw
"The yield curve is inverted - that means recession!" "No, the bear steepening - that's the real recession indicator!" The truth is: for stock market investors, the yield curve does NOT matter... Regardless of the YC regime, stock returns are roughly average
Some of the remaining hawks think that because inflation is not yet at 2.0%, it doesn't make sense to cut For historical context, in month one of historical recessions, the average level of YoY CPI inflation was +5.3%, and the interquartile range was 2.5-6.7% Waiting for 2%…
Some of the remaining hawks think that because inflation is not yet at 2.0%, it doesn't make sense to cut For historical context, in month one of historical recessions, the average level of YoY CPI inflation was +5.3%, and the interquartile range was 2.5-6.7% Waiting for 2%… https://t.co/N8LcbFBVkA
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