Vanda Research @vandaresearch
Tactical Macro Specialists. For more info on investor positioning, tactical asset allocation recommendations or to trial the research, email [email protected] vandaresearch.com London Joined March 2013-
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When positioning shifts, prices follow. This chart shows how our USDJPY option flow data moves in step with returns a clean, reliable proxy for speculative sentiment. Introducing Live FX Positioning Data updated every 10 minutes. See shifts before they move the market.
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In April, Eric Liu called the bottom on US equities. He was right. Now his framework has shifted. This time, the call goes against consensus. To unlock the research: [email protected]
Retail investors piled into US equities again yesterday—classic buy-the-dip behavior. But they haven’t capitulated yet, meaning other players are driving stocks lower. Find out how to cut through the noise with VandaTrack: shorturl.at/HFqdC
Vanda Research retweeted
⚠️ Fed taper announcement (caps cut to $25bn) broadly in line with where Primary Dealers were in early March (at $20bn). I don't think this was a massive surprise... and why we're seeing a muted reaction. If anything US yields stay supported unless Powell tries to talk cuts $USD
Vanda Research retweeted
⚠️ ECB day… 🟢 Best case for $EUR is Lagarde explicitly rules out Mar/Apr cuts saying ECB will only cut after seeing H1 wage negotiations 🔴 Worst case for $EUR is Lagarde rules in Mar/Apr rate cuts by saying all options possible Most likely we’ll get a whole heap of nothing
Vanda Research retweeted
⚠️ On the surface UK CPI was 'hot'. Certainly services sticky (largely hotels). BUT 43% of the basket still saw price cuts. Trimmed mean MoM was 0.2%. This isn't a broad uptick in prices. It's a few sticky factors that I expect will fade in Q1. Mar still live for BoE cut $GBP
Vanda Research retweeted
⚠️ Markets are pricing in the most aggressive front-loaded Fed hiking cycle in modern history. If the Fed delivers 4 consecutive 50bps hikes starting in May... which is starting to get priced in... then this will be more aggressive than what we saw in '94. History being made $USD
Vanda Research retweeted
⚠️ UK wage growth misses... and slowing in line with all the other alt data. Negative monthly payrolls too... broad-based with more than 50% of industries seeing job cuts. If the US jobs report was strong... UK one is the polar opposite. BoE can cut sooner than markets think $GBP
Vanda Research retweeted
⚠️ Sticky flash Oct Tokyo CPI means the risks of a YCC tweak at Oct BoJ tomorrow cannot be ruled out. It's less clear-cut than it was in July given Japan's loss of economic momentum over Q3. But 1H Oct mid-fiscal year price dynamics suggest BoJ might have more work to do $JPY
Vanda Research retweeted
"Retail investors have been buying tech megacaps as prices fall." @vandaresearch via @SoberLook
Vanda Research retweeted
Retail traders are eager to buy the dip in big tech --@vandaresearch
Vanda Research retweeted
⚠️ UK flash PMI: - Biggest fall in services activity since Jan - Longest decline in manf activity since 08/09 - Lower jobs 2nd month in row - Softer services costs (wages) - Goods prices declined fastest since '16 Only hawkish factor: - 3M high in prices charged (services) $GBP
Vanda Research retweeted
⚠️ UK jobless claims remain in keeping with late '18/'19 end-of-cycle levels. Unemployment data is stale & uncertain given measurement issues. But direction of travel for UK labour market clear - things are getting worse. Another set of data forcing BoE to sit on their hands $GBP
Vanda Research retweeted
"The average individual-investor stock portfolio has risen about 150% since the beginning of 2014...That beats the S&P 500’s roughly 140% during the same period." @WSJ @vandaresearch
Vanda Research retweeted
"Retail investors continue to buy Treasury ETFs." @SoberLook @vandaresearch
Vanda Research retweeted
*JAPAN MOF OFFICIAL: NO COMMENT ON IF JAPAN INTERVENED ON YEN If they intervened, I think they would've wanted to let you know... else it makes it very pointless (ie, $USDJPY is just going to test new highs)
Vanda Research retweeted
⚠️ US wage growth for job switchers now at lowest since Jul '21 based on ADP data. Another sign of the not-so-strong animal spirits in the labor market $USD
Vanda Research retweeted
Many are confused by BoE policy. But it’s Data Dependency 101. 50bps hike in Jun was due to core inflation accelerating in H1 & BoE couldn’t risk it was just one-off quirks (even if it was). Now realised inflation has step-changed lower in Q3, BoE has room to pause & assess $GBP
Many are confused by BoE policy. But it’s Data Dependency 101. 50bps hike in Jun was due to core inflation accelerating in H1 & BoE couldn’t risk it was just one-off quirks (even if it was). Now realised inflation has step-changed lower in Q3, BoE has room to pause & assess $GBP
Vanda Research retweeted
"Retail investor dip buying is alive and well." @SoberLook @vandaresearch
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