Neil Irwin @Neil_Irwin
Chief Economic Correspondent at Axios and author of Axios Macro newsletter. Author of "The Alchemists" and "How to Win"; Formerly: NYT, WashPost. neilirwin.com Washington, DC Joined June 2010-
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Yesterday @Courtenay_Brown and I spoke with @NewYorkFed president John Williams. We covered the prospect for rate cuts, the Fed balance sheet, AI, the "zero-interest rate phenomenon," and more. My takeaways here, with a link to the full transcript. axios.com/2024/02/23/fed…
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Fed vice-chair Jefferson signals leadership is attuned to the runup in long-term yields. Along with Lorie Logan's more detailed speech earlier, a clear signal to markets that they're paying attention and factoring higher long-term rates into their outlook and policy settings.
Excellent speech from Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan on the rise in long-term yields and policy implications. It works as a great explainer of the distinction between a rise in what policy rates markets envision vs. term premium, and implications thereof. dallasfed.org/news/speeches/…
Average hourly earnings up 0.2%, +4.2% year-over-year. Lowest 12 month print since June 2021. Sure doesn't look like a wage-price spiral.
30-year yields at 4.95% — in the last 30 years we’ve only really had Fed Funds more than a smidge above 5% in 1995, 2000, and the past few months. 30 years is a long time.
This is great. It’s the fiscal algebra everybody should know (or at least get the basic intuition) in thinking about how deficits, debt, interest rates, and growth intersect.
This is great. It’s the fiscal algebra everybody should know (or at least get the basic intuition) in thinking about how deficits, debt, interest rates, and growth intersect.
The 5 year real yield now at 2.52%. In the 20 year history of TIPS, it has only been higher briefly in summer 2007 and during the liquidity freeze-up in the 2008 crisis. New territory, we are in.
Over the last 3 months, core PCE inflation has been an annualized 2.16%, which is, you know, pretty much on target. (Energy price increases in that span mean headline inflation is hotter, 3.14% annualized).
Core PCE comes in at +0.1% in August, vs. 0.2% forecast. Best inflation number in quite a long time.
Another day, another 10bp added to the real cost of long-term borrowing--up from 0% immediately prior to the pandemic.
Mike Pyle tells @hopeking that the “G20 Summit offered a really good snapshot” of global unity around economic goals. Watch more 👉 trib.al/U0XgdOM #Axios Events
Fed gov Miki Bowman suggests she has the most hawkish policy outlook on the FOMC. Noting the plural "hikes": "I continue to expect that further rate hikes will likely be needed to return inflation to 2 percent in a timely way." federalreserve.gov/newsevents/spe…
Really good speech by Lisa Cook on the economics of AI here. An accessible, even-handed overview of some really important questions. federalreserve.gov/newsevents/spe…
Two-year is up again too, also to a new cycle high. Markets are buying the Fed's higher-for-longer message.
Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart
356K Followers 6K Following One half of Bloomberg's Odd Lots Podcast. One quarter of Light Sweet Crude.
Joey Politano 🏳️.. @JosephPolitano
64K Followers 1K Following Writing a data-driven newsletter about economics @ https://t.co/IanQ9oPoPi | Nuance? In this economy? | he/him | Bi/pan
Jason Furman @jasonfurman
157K Followers 2K Following Professor of Practice at Harvard. Teaches Ec 10, some tweets might be educational. Also Senior Fellow @PIIE. Was Chair of President Obama's CEA.
Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers
227K Followers 2K Following Professor @UMichEcon & @FordSchool | Senior Fellow @BrookingsInst & @PIIE | Intro Econ textbook author | Think Like an Economist podcast.
Adam Ozimek @ModeledBehavior
83K Followers 868 Following Chief economist at @InnovateEconomy. Host of the EconTwitter Water Cooler, live on twitter spaces and downloadable here: https://t.co/toyjfDruRu
Matthew Zeitlin @MattZeitlin
56K Followers 3K Following correspondent @heatmap_news matthew at heatmap dot news
Ivan the K™ @IvanTheK
61K Followers 613 Following Lead Independent Director of Finance Twitter. Portfolio Mangler. Take each tweet with a grain of sea salt. Not opinions of Bridgewater LLC.
Jeanna Smialek @jeannasmialek
66K Followers 2K Following Federal Reserve and economy reporter @nytimes. Pittsburgh native, Tar Heel. Wrote a book on central banking's new era, link below.
Brad Setser @Brad_Setser
98K Followers 953 Following CFR senior fellow. Views are my own. Retweets are not endorsements. Writes on sovereign debt and capital flows.
Matt Darling 🌐🏗.. @besttrousers
47K Followers 3K Following Senior Employment Policy Analyst @niskanencenter. Chief Neoliberal Shill 2023. Labor/behavioral economics and causal inference.
Skanda Amarnath @IrvingSwisher
26K Followers 5K Following Executive Director - @employamerica. RTs/likes != endorsements. https://t.co/tKsuuvVYoc @skandaamarnath on other sites. Charitable interpretation advised
Tracy Alloway @tracyalloway
191K Followers 5K Following Co-host of the Odd Lots podcast. I like financial crisis hindsight, spurious correlation and puppies. London ➡️ New York ➡️ Abu Dhabi ➡️ Hong Kong ➡️ New York
Arin Dube @arindube
53K Followers 1K Following Provost Prof. of Economics (UMass Amherst). Inequality, labor market policies and competition. Book project: The Wage Standard. @nberpubs @MITshapingwork
Jordan Weissmann @JHWeissmann
49K Followers 4K Following @Semafor Washington editor. Formerly: Slate, The Atlantic.
Diane Swonk @DianeSwonk
46K Followers 615 Following Chief Economist, @KPMG_US. Briefs Federal Reserve. Trained labor economist. 36 yrs experience in financial services & consulting . RTs not endorsements. She/her
Dean Baker @DeanBaker13
72K Followers 270 Following Senior economist at the Center for Economic &Policy Research (@ceprdc). Blog-- Beat the Press (@beat_the_press) I'm now at Mastodon @[email protected]
Sam Ro 📈 @SamRo
66K Followers 3K Following Award-winning writer of @TKerLLC, the newsletter helping investors maintain sanity amid the noise. 25k+ subs. Long-term optimist. Short-term cautious optimist.
Matthew C. Klein @M_C_Klein
55K Followers 719 Following Founder of THE OVERSHOOT and UN/BALANCED | co-author of TRADE WARS ARE CLASS WARS | For speaking: https://t.co/bD8a12V37O
Robin Wigglesworth @RobinWigg
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Liam Donovan @LPDonovan
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Mary Carol @marymcguiness
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Freakonomics @Freakonomics
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Johnny @Johnny141734540
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Millicent @K50pFZ1c658NW
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Carla Norrlöf @CarlaNorrlof
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7K Followers 6K Following PERSONAL ACCOUNT. @AndrewBatesNC's best friend. @JoeBiden forever. Research fan. #LGM. @PackMensBball watcher. @USTreasury Senior Spox.
Roger E. A. Farmer @farmerrf
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604 Followers 3K Following i recommend best products to my audionce/followers
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Peekaboo123 @aliahmad1022
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300 Followers 4K Following Estudiante Paraguaya de Relaciones Internacionales en @AmericanU - LIKE o RT no necesariamente reflejan mis opiniones personales.
Lucy Chen @carlinhosbala36
151 Followers 2K Following Trouble is climbing up there with your damn emotions.
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Sofia @Sofia3789123
2K Followers 417 Following A strong desire to hold a person in your arms. Nature | beautiful 📸 I love travel🌏✈️,food🍜🍝,gym🏌️♀️,shopping💸. use for daily life post.
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this happens to be th.. @awenewpossum
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23 Followers 208 Following @AEI Media Relations Office University of Virginia alum
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Carl Fredricksen @CarlFredri83612
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Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart
356K Followers 6K Following One half of Bloomberg's Odd Lots Podcast. One quarter of Light Sweet Crude.
Conor Sen @conorsen
92K Followers 295 Following Columnist for @opinion. Founder of Peachtree Creek Investments. Sun Belt/monoculture enthusiast. The future is a policy choice.
Joey Politano 🏳️.. @JosephPolitano
64K Followers 1K Following Writing a data-driven newsletter about economics @ https://t.co/IanQ9oPoPi | Nuance? In this economy? | he/him | Bi/pan
Jason Furman @jasonfurman
157K Followers 2K Following Professor of Practice at Harvard. Teaches Ec 10, some tweets might be educational. Also Senior Fellow @PIIE. Was Chair of President Obama's CEA.
Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers
227K Followers 2K Following Professor @UMichEcon & @FordSchool | Senior Fellow @BrookingsInst & @PIIE | Intro Econ textbook author | Think Like an Economist podcast.
Adam Ozimek @ModeledBehavior
83K Followers 868 Following Chief economist at @InnovateEconomy. Host of the EconTwitter Water Cooler, live on twitter spaces and downloadable here: https://t.co/toyjfDruRu
Matthew Zeitlin @MattZeitlin
56K Followers 3K Following correspondent @heatmap_news matthew at heatmap dot news
Ivan the K™ @IvanTheK
61K Followers 613 Following Lead Independent Director of Finance Twitter. Portfolio Mangler. Take each tweet with a grain of sea salt. Not opinions of Bridgewater LLC.
Jeanna Smialek @jeannasmialek
66K Followers 2K Following Federal Reserve and economy reporter @nytimes. Pittsburgh native, Tar Heel. Wrote a book on central banking's new era, link below.
Brad Setser @Brad_Setser
98K Followers 953 Following CFR senior fellow. Views are my own. Retweets are not endorsements. Writes on sovereign debt and capital flows.
Matt Darling 🌐🏗.. @besttrousers
47K Followers 3K Following Senior Employment Policy Analyst @niskanencenter. Chief Neoliberal Shill 2023. Labor/behavioral economics and causal inference.
Skanda Amarnath @IrvingSwisher
26K Followers 5K Following Executive Director - @employamerica. RTs/likes != endorsements. https://t.co/tKsuuvVYoc @skandaamarnath on other sites. Charitable interpretation advised
Tracy Alloway @tracyalloway
191K Followers 5K Following Co-host of the Odd Lots podcast. I like financial crisis hindsight, spurious correlation and puppies. London ➡️ New York ➡️ Abu Dhabi ➡️ Hong Kong ➡️ New York
Arin Dube @arindube
53K Followers 1K Following Provost Prof. of Economics (UMass Amherst). Inequality, labor market policies and competition. Book project: The Wage Standard. @nberpubs @MITshapingwork
Jordan Weissmann @JHWeissmann
49K Followers 4K Following @Semafor Washington editor. Formerly: Slate, The Atlantic.
Diane Swonk @DianeSwonk
46K Followers 615 Following Chief Economist, @KPMG_US. Briefs Federal Reserve. Trained labor economist. 36 yrs experience in financial services & consulting . RTs not endorsements. She/her
Sam Ro 📈 @SamRo
66K Followers 3K Following Award-winning writer of @TKerLLC, the newsletter helping investors maintain sanity amid the noise. 25k+ subs. Long-term optimist. Short-term cautious optimist.
Matthew C. Klein @M_C_Klein
55K Followers 719 Following Founder of THE OVERSHOOT and UN/BALANCED | co-author of TRADE WARS ARE CLASS WARS | For speaking: https://t.co/bD8a12V37O
Robin Wigglesworth @RobinWigg
75K Followers 2K Following Editor of @FTAlphaville. Norwegian despite the Harry Potter-esque name. Author of TRILLIONS. Views mine bla bla.
Barak Ravid @BarakRavid
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429 Followers 319 Following
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Connor O’Brien @cojobrien
5K Followers 2K Following Research @InnovateEconomy. Fellow @rootsofprogress. Thinking about: progress, dynamism, immigration, cities, industrial policy, the NY Mets. Definite optimist.
Josh Wingrove @josh_wingrove
57K Followers 8K Following White House & economy, Bloomberg. Views are my own. Reach out! e: [email protected]. Insta: josh_wingrove.
Sonny Bunch @SonnyBunch
83K Followers 986 Following Culture editor at The Bulwark. Words: WaPo, Atlantic, WFB, Commentary, etc. Pods: @SubBeacon; Bulwark Goes to Hollywood; Across the Movie Aisle. "Deranged."
Rep. Don Beyer @RepDonBeyer
109K Followers 5K Following Representing Northern Virginia’s #VA08 in the U.S. House, serving on @JECDems @WaysMeansCmte. Co-Chair of @CaucusOnClimate. He/Him/His
Neale Mahoney @nealemahoney
8K Followers 690 Following Professor @StanfordEcon. Incoming Director @SIEPR. Former @WhiteHouse National Economic Council. Watches soccer, reads history, listens to all types of music.
Bill Scher @billscher
29K Followers 8K Following Politics Editor for the Washington @Monthly. Also, contributor @politico @realclearnews, @DMZShow, When America Worked podcast. (Avi by @Jess_Sassenach.)
Steven Hamilton @SHamiltonian
18K Followers 1K Following Assistant Professor of Economics @GWtweets | Faculty Affiliate @IIEPGW | Visiting Fellow @Austaxpolicy | Former @Treasury_AU | PhD @UMich | 🇦🇺
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33K Followers 2K Following Author STREETS OF GOLD. Economic history @Princeton. Mom of 3. Jew. Talmud @leah_dafyomi 🍷 Kosi revaya
Ethan Wu 🇺🇸🇹.. @EthanYWu
4K Followers 615 Following Soon: Asia correspondent @TheEconomist. Previously: hosted/wrote @FT Unhedged markets & finance pod/newsletter.
Ryan Heath @ryanaxios
85K Followers 19K Following Global Tech Correspondent @axios. @ryangheath on Threads 🏳️🌈 🇦🇺 🇧🇪 in 🇺🇸
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8K Followers 1K Following Chief Content Officer of @IntraFi. Host of Banking with Interest podcast. Former Editor-in-Chief of @amerbanker. Opinions my own. Author: https://t.co/VoEq4WNBUj
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126K Followers 3K Following Washington Bureau Chief at @semafor. Sign up for Principals and Americana at https://t.co/BQHSjHkC3I. bsarlin at semafor dot com. Same username on 🧵
Katherine Dee @default_friend
44K Followers 4K Following art bell fan. can’t stop listening to gordon lightfoot. i write about internet history and culture, commission me. bylines all over. @thecomputer_room on insta.
Sean Tuffy @SMTuffy
20K Followers 843 Following I tweet mostly about FinReg & crossborder funds. Sometimes I tweet about other stuff. Personal account, all opinions my own and whatnot.
Washington Week with .. @washingtonweek
77K Followers 1K Following Analysis of the week's top stories by the best reporters in Washington. Moderated by @TheAtlantic's @JeffreyGoldberg. Friday nights at 8/7c on @PBS.
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🏗قُرناص @HGornass_a7x
139 Followers 1K Following I just basically wake up and think about life & the afterlife with also a little bit of political economy. But hey, to do or not do whatever, you'll regret it.
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This comment about The Two Parent Privilege from a Goodreads review made me laugh out loud - "So much of the discourse around this book is fully deranged." As another reviewer puts it, "This book was controversial when it was published, though reading it I don't understand…
I think this is a result of how long the regular season is. Teams prove they’re the best over a 162-game marathon and there’s a sense that the postseason should reflect that. But you can’t script sports. Just not how it works. The postseason is chaos and you gotta embrace it
I would definitely read an analysis of how hard it is to cancel different auto-renew subscriptions - including cable, streaming apps, newspapers, retail (including Prime), games, etc. strongly suspect news media would not cover ourselves in glory
Parenting is not easy. I don't think I've ever met parents who thought it was. And it's probably helpful if there are two parents around. Especially if they get along. Amazing to see all the vitriol and snark directed at an economist who simply writes up the evidence.
Thanks to all who have read the book or are reading the book and chiming in to help clarify what I do and don't say!
This and the strike song from “Lisa Needs Braces” are my Roman Empire
this has had me in the chokehold for 27 years
@kearney_melissa I’m going to need a more formal economic model for how a second loving parent could be beneficial …
A sous vide - duck confit romantic comedy love story. The “meet cute” scene …
@besttrousers @cojobrien I'm the centrist, wait till you hear what Connor thinks people should spend on cars
The Two-Parent Privilege is #1 new release in “Sociology of Marriage & Family” 🤩 I wonder what the economists who dismiss this line of research as “too much like sociology” & the sociologists who get annoyed w/ economists for our approach to these Qs would say about that. 🙃
@Neil_Irwin Not totally sure about this -- if you look at unemployed by reason, entrants are up but so are job losers. % increase in job losers is larger than % increase in entrants.
In which @Neil_Irwin worries about 4.7% inflation.
@Neil_Irwin I don't know. The in-depth, 10-seconds of research I did on Google suggests "raptors" and "hawks" are different. Since it says "raptors" on the photo backdrop, not sure if we can use this as a market signal. Maybe there's a combination orinthologist/strategist who can reply? LOL
Catherine: "Is it really good that we all hang out at Chili's?" Me: YEAH BABY WE ALL HANG OUT AT CHILI'S
This chatter about raising the Fed’s inflation target is way premature. IIRC, Powell has already said this ain’t happening on his watch. I would expect ZERO daylight on this before the current target is done and dusted.
@conorsen As luck would have it, saw a nicely self-aware band two days ago in Chastain Park who understand both themselves and their core demo and figured out a way to make “aging nerdy white dudes up in their feelings and Swifties who stuck around” t-shirt friendly evocative of our age.
I don’t think “middle-aged” captures the feeling of 42 as much as “not old, but not young either.”
Happy birthday @conorsen! The person I've probably RTd more than anyone else on this site
I mostly avoid media criticism because the reporters that write these stories 100% understand all the issues I'm raising and are consistent over time. But I wish the editorial choices would move away from a focus on 12-month changes, reversing headlines and subheads.
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