Danny Ahmed, CFA @dahmed23
All things markets, macro, and geopolitics | Risk Manager | #bitcoin | dannyahmed.eth | Views are mine | RT's != endorsements threads.net/@dahmed26 Gotham Joined June 2012-
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IMF Chief Economist @pogourinchas: Progress toward bringing inflation down to targets seems to have stalled since the beginning of the year. It is important that this remains a top priority for policymakers. Read more in our blog. imf.org/en/Blogs/Artic…
1/15 What's going on with the bond market? It is not pretty. And if the bond market is ugly, everyone else suffers. 🧵
All three major party groups in the U.S. have become less supportive of Israel’s actions in Gaza than they were in November. Full story: on.gallup.com/3xkXdKZ
Yesterday you saw awful Dallas Fed. Today we have terrible Richmond Fed. -- New Orders -17 vs -5 prior -- Backlog -25 vs -15 prior -- Capacity utilization down -- Capex down -- Inventories rising -- Equip and Soft. spending down richmondfed.org/-/media/Richmo…
US High Yield Credit Spreads have moved down to 3.05%, their tightest level since January 2022. US Investment Grade Credit Spreads have moved down to 0.91%, their tightest level since November 2021.
My latest @Forbes is on the remarkable new paper by @LHSummers & colleagues showing that inflation reached 18% in Nov. 2022, if you use a version of the pre-1983 CPI formula that accounts for interest costs: forbes.com/sites/theapoth…
Check out our March 2024 Outlook. This month's spotlight looks at homeowners' insurance. freddiemac.com/research/forec…
"We've been pretty transparent on this, but we'll try harder." - Powell on CBDC Love it.
The most notable projection in the minutes today is the material increase in GDP for the year. #FOMC
The calmer you are, the clearer you think. The clearer you think, the more powerful you become.
🗣 On the Record weekend wrap: 🤩 My score: 96/100 points ➡️ Your turn washingtonpost.com/news-quiz/?tid…
“Parachute Pants & Central Bank Money.” - Randal Quarles bis.org/review/r210705…
🚨Beige Book - February 2024 "Economic activity increased slightly, on balance, since early January, with eight Districts reporting slight to modest growth in activity, three others reporting no change, and one District noting a slight softening. Consumer spending, particularly…
Mauboussin & Callahan recently shared a great paper on investing in the era of "easy money". The paper examines the behaviour of public companies in a period characterised by low interest rates and when "financial capital was cheap and abundant". 🧵 Our X favourite highlights:
Now available: Testimony by Chair Powell on the semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress: federalreserve.gov/newsevents/tes… federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy… Watch testimony live today at 10 a.m.
The largest move in the last 7 days was: China 10s30s. There were no G10 bond yields that had a 2 standard deviation move during the period.
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Mexico’s election is already shaping up to be the most violent in the country’s modern history trib.al/xt4Pa4B
One powerful realization: Stop overthinking. Decisions are generally reversible, inaction is not.
With God as my witness I thought that was a profile shot of Donald Trump
Slightly obsessed with this press shot of Camilla, lurking in the shadows with a gin, like the evil matriarch of a Netflix drama.
Some of you are more mad about Fani Willis going on trips with a coworker boyfriend which both of them paid for than you are about Clarence Thomas going on trips that billionaires with business before the Supreme Court paid for.
If a very attractive woman DMs you about buying crypto, don’t trust him. It’s probably a scam.
@dahmed23 @madrid_mike One other note. NC is a semi closed primary. Only unaffiliated voters can pick which primary they want to vote in.
Souzzi: I promised the people I would deliver a simple message to this chamber. Wake up. The people are sick and tired of the finger pointing and the petty partisan bickering. They want us to work together.
There's a sentiment indicator in here somewhere...
The rally in Magnificent 7 stocks hasn't been accompanied by increased short interest "This lack of protection not only reflects a diminishing appetite to short stocks with strong positive momentum, but also the diminishing influence of short sellers" --JPM
Overheard in DC: "The war against AI is the Professional-Managerial Class’s desperate attempt to create a moat."
Bulls the minute $NVDA earnings come out:
The $NVDA at the money straddle in Feb 23 exp is ~$65; that is the implied movement in either direction between now and Friday's close. The $65 out-of-the-money Call is nearly 2x the cost of the $65 out-of-the-money Put. Not something you see too often in the options market.
We are in an era where fiscal deficits are structurally larger than the rate of bank lending and are set to grow in perpetuity, and so fiscal details tend to matter more than monetary ones.
I, a universe of atoms, an atom in the universe.
On this day 82 years ago, on February 19, 1942, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, in the height of insanity of racism after the bombing of Pearl Harbor, signed Executive Order 9066. It ordered all Japanese Americans on the West Coast to be summarily rounded up and imprisoned…
How the fuck did Whittaker survive this??