Skord Econ @emjaymem
Markets, economy, and opinions (which are my own). Follows are not an endorsement. Joined February 2011-
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Skord Econ retweeted
Treasury wants to enter the repo market. What does this mean? To understand, we need to discuss a few things first. The general public has never understood monetary policy…but this is especially true today with the Fed’s shift to “abundant reserves”. Kevin Warsh would like to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet with QT, but doing this, say many, creates stress in short-term markets. This is true, but it is not “because” of QT. Banks now face much stricter liquidity rules, so when the Fed drains reserves with QT it pushes banks up against those limits. All the Fed needs to do is loosen these liquidity rules. In other words it is the regulations, not the QT itself, which causes issues. Also the Treasury has boosted its holdings of cash in the Treasury General Account (TGA) from roughly $5 billion pre 2008 to ~$900 billion today. This money is taken out of circulation because the TGA is not part of M2. In other words, the Treasury is now part of monetary policy itself. If it spent down the TGA that money would come back into the banking system and could lift M2 by up to $900 billion. If it put that money back in the banking system, the Fed would also have more room for QT even if it didn’t change liquidity rules. I think this is why the Treasury wants to use its TGA in the repo market. It still gets to keep the cash, but the money would be back in the banking system, and Warsh would have more room for QT. Better still, would be for the Treasury to just empty this account. There is no real reason it needs that much cash. And taxpayers are paying interest on debt to finance it. Either way, using the repo market, or emptying the TGA would raise M2 and make more room for QT.
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